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Walsall Wood Snow

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    Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

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  1. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

    I didn't actually see the Sun earlier, but I did notice that the cloud seemed a very weird colour. It sort of had a slightly golden tinge to it, but it felt very dim at the same time. It was a bit surreal actually, and it can't be too often it's like that. Quite a windy day too, with a lot of leaves floating about and down.
  2. Autumn thoughts

    They're also more likely to mention the USA also. In fact the British media is obsessed with major American weather events, and you almost feel that they're reported to us as if we're somehow affected. Why does the news make such a big deal about snowstorms in America say. I'm pretty sure similar conditions here would barely get a mention if at all. As for national tv forecasts, they're only supposed to predict conditions in the UK, so obviously Northern Ireland is mentioned, but been as the rest of the island is a separate state, conditions there are left out. This is of course despite the fact that the entire island appears on UK weather maps. You'd think though that if something major was to affect them more than us, that they would highlight it, been as they're our nearest neighbour and it could also even be done without panning the image out.
  3. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    I don't know but if anything maybe it shows that we can't take anything for granted? One thing to consider though is the fact that the instrumental record begins in 1659, in the LIA. Even during that though I believe the harsher stages of it were in the late 17th century, then I think it eased a bit in the early 18th, reintensified in the 1740s and eased off by the middle of the 19th century effectively ending it. I do believe people in the mid 19th century noticed too, with milder Winters becoming more regular. But they seem to come back towards the end of the century, dying off again come the turn of the century. But this was probably a more normal cooling phase a bit like the one from the 1940s to 70s. So there seems to be cycles to these things.
  4. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    Indeed it was, but it was an intensely cold Winter in a sea of mildness. In fact clusterings of cold Winters seem to come to a halt when the 19th turned over to the 20th century. They then started becoming far more regular again from the 1940s to 1970s, stopped again for about half a decade and then resumed until the mid to late 1980s. After which it's been mostly mild Winters again, but even the Winters of the early to mid 1990s had their moments, and that 5 year period from 2008-13 was a bit like the 80s strikes back. I think after nearly 5 years though it can't be too much longer until we get something decent, whether it be in isolation or the start of a new trend however long or short.
  5. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    I don't believe the period 1900 to 1940 was particularly snowy in lowland Britain. It wouldn't have been as snowy as 1940 to 1990 though.
  6. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    We've only had 4 in succession since the last cold one, and March was a part of Winter that year (producing well below normal average temps, making it an intensely cold Winter period, really quite recently at that). This isn't really anything. We'd probably have to have something like 30 to 40 years of only mild Winters to start believing that, which I can't imagine happening. But whatever it might be 4 or 5 years isn't enough. There has been an increase in mild Winters in the last 30 years but very cold ones have come. Those most recent examples also gave us some of the coldest averages at particular times of year in decades and well over a century even. If we don't get another cold Winter by at least the middle of next decade maybe my concerns will increase. But I think we'll possibly get another before the end of this one.
  7. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    I find that very hard to believe.
  8. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    I would also like to add that these Winters are fondly remembered by cold fans (or those that were around back then) and are very famous, for their intense cold and copious snows but it should also be remembered that as long lasting as it all was, neither was a 1st Dec to 28th Feb affair. In that case we had a far better Winter period from 1st Dec to Christmas Day in 2010 than would have happened here in 1946 or 1962. That's one way of looking at it anyway.
  9. Will This Winter be like 1947 / 1963 ?

    It's a bit like buying a lottery ticket and going around asking everybody whether they think you'll win the jackpot. Well there's a miniscule chance I suppose, but it's only realistic to expect not to. Besides from anything else, if such were to occur, I doubt any previous forecast would be so bold. But as for the specific years in question, it should be remembered that they were pretty unique from one another, with the most intense cold in 46/47 arriving much later than 62/63 and the later was colder but the former was more snowy on average. So it begs the question what is the actual threshold that puts these 2 Winters particularly in their own league? And why isn't say 78/79 considered to be in quite the same league? I guess perhaps that Winter is considered as been more like 09/10, which as good as it was, was no 46/47 or 62/63. Not that I was around for either, but they were clearly something else. Also how far back before 1946/47 would you find another Winter that could be considered equal?
  10. I don't think we'll have much idea really what Winter will be like until a month's time or more. By then there'll be a lot more contributors and I'm sure some of the more knowledgeable posters such as Tamara and possibly GP will start giving us some clues. Not that they're always right of course. But they do have a very broad grasp of global teleconnections which gives them an idea of how things could go.
  11. I know there's already this fear that current weather patterns are going to be stuck in a rut for a long time, and possibly spoiling yet another Winter season. But seriously aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves here. At least it's only October. Surely there's plenty of scope for change yet. Besides even if temps we're below average now, it wouldn't guarantee Winter temps would also be. I believe Autumn 1974 was pretty chilly, but the Winter that followed has a bad reputation for cold fans. There's also that old saying about Ice in November to bear a duck, the following Winter will be rain and muck, or something like that. Not that that's always true as well, but it surely came from experience of such happening, probably more than once, which if nothing else illustrates that just because the weather's doing one thing now, doesn't mean it will still be doing it further down the road. Probably just better saving any concerns until Winter is actually imminent.
  12. Seems to show below average temps for the northern half of Ireland though funnily enough. It also shows any below average temps in the USA to be concentrated in the Upper Mid West. Don't know if that would help us or not? Greenland appears to be well below average too though. Not sure if that's good or bad for us but the precipitation chart shows below average for western Greenland, so don't know if that could indicate high pressure over there. I know that could be good.
  13. Don't get me wrong I don't take anything as gospel, I was just adding to Ed Stones point that a warm spell in mid October needn't mean a mild Winter is imminent. I've not much knowledge of what Oct 62 was like, I'm just saying I've heard (probably from somebody on this forum a long time back) that it was a pleasant month. Your right though been as it's got a CET of 10.4c, which though a bit cooler than some recent October's is pretty average. One characteristic I've heard about that month though was it was often sunny with temps rising quite well in the day, then falling back at night under clear skies. I've no idea if that was really the case or not. Besides of course I know that even a carbon copy of that month, wouldn't necessarily mean that a similar Winter would follow suit, but it's still all good fun to try to match current conditions to previous years and look for analogous, as that's all we've got for now really.
  14. I've heard that a mild and dry October can be a good sign for a cold Winter. Mild and wet though is apparently not so good. I've heard that Oct 62 was a fairly pleasant month too (don't know if that's true).
  15. I think I remember you bringing this fact up as far back as late 2012 or earlier. And we ended up with a very cold March in 2013 instead (though Feb that year was still a bit cold). As you've said before as well we've had a very cold Nov, Dec, Jan and Mar in the recent past but a very cold Feb has been a long time coming. Can't be much longer surely. If it was to happen though, I'd want a very cold Dec and Jan as well as Feb is the longest Winter month to wait for and after 4 snow starved years I'm not sure I've got the patience . Especially when you come on this forum even in mid December and people are often throwing in the towel (often they've been proved correct as well). Or it would have to be such a solid long range forecast, the likes of which has never been seen, that every meteorologist on earth is so convinced of it that they all agree that only an asteroid impact or something could prevent it, to allow me to feel relaxed about however cold or not the preceding months of Winter are .
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