Bottled Snow

Yes on a knife edge....even the GFS operational looked like going the way of the pear early before somehow pulling it out of the fire....UKMO also not as clean as last night...far from a done deal....big ECM coming up ....

the mountain tops here in the southeast are covered in snow this morning so would have expected places further north to have seen some of the white stuff alright

Yes good to see GFS joining ECM and CMA......we now need to see tjese holding steady and importantly UKMO coming on board in the morning....all to play for and at this stage looking good

Yes and would be good for my location once uppers, dew points, lapse rates etc are conducive , however I would still prefer everything backed a little further west so everyone on the island could get in on the action......still believe a very decent spell of cold and snow is coming.......how much snow? decent amounts will depend on getting blocking a little further north and west......heres hoping for more upgrades tomorrow PS Hope everyone are friends again...we all love the weather and the more members the better .....be sad to lose anyone....especially as the fun and games are set to commence

Yes hopefully the pattern keeps edging further west which wuuld bring us more in to the game Monday night onwards....all to play for.....

unfortunately no.....but theres a first time for everything

Decent enough models tonight but could do with the pattern edging a little further west, as based on current output most of the coldest air is going to our east. With down welling in the strat continuing and main thrust of cold still 6 to 7 days away this is certainly a possibility, although pattern could end up further east also .......The Dec 2017 slider kept correcting west right up to the day in question....It also would help keep us locked in to a colder pattern going forward if final outcome of next week's slider is further west than currently modelled ..... All to play for....

Yes still confident that may of us will see snow over coming weeks....nothing I have seen today has changed my mind...in fact Getting more confident each day as things start to come in to closer range.... mid next week will be interesting I feel

ICON probably best of all but not sure how reliable that is. Yes ecm looks excellent again although uppers a bit disappointing but all liable to change

think I will stick with Ian Ferguson especially as it means better chance of snow

If you go to the model tweet thread Booferking you will see that Ian Ferguson of UK MET rubbished that tweet from Essex Weather....all still good in the hood

Latest ec46 still showing strong signal for heights to our northwest from next week onwards to week seven...ec ensembles very cold....SSW record breaking and long lasting with winds now reversing at 10hpa level.... and Glosea showing a cold signal for Feb and March.....its been a long road since November this hunt for cold but hopefully things are now falling in to place for a much colder and snowier second half to winter And still GFS is on a different planet but hopefully will smell the coffee soon... Night all and snowy dreams Bottled Snow

Thanks John...always wait to see your take on the anomoly charts before getting too excited prior to a possible cold spell. ...hopefully the signal will continue to strengthen in future runs

Met Eireann in week ahead forecast at lunch time predicting rain with hill sleet for Friday and Saturday.......hopefully we can get colder uppers in place to support snowfall as we go through the weekend and in to following week

Yes Dec 2017 brought good snowfall here in southeast from a slider..turned milder a few days later but this looks like a prolonged set up so should be plenty of opportunities over next few weeks

Hopefully on the cusp...we are in with a shout anyhow.....lets see how the next few days pan out but end Jan and Feb could be special if things fall in to place

They are cutting the grass so the snow will settle better and more evenly when it arrives to make sledging and snowman building easier All good still for a big change commencing mid next week....exciting times ahead....

I would love my shed roof to cave in with snow... it would mean we got a lot of snow .....worry about the consequences later

Yes and hopefully by the time we get to Saturday or Sunday some of those juicy charts will be coming in to the 7 day range

fantastic and very interesting post by @Roger J Smith A Jan 1947 redux would be nice though maybe too extreme as @andymusic post above.....however after the winter so far a few days of cold and snow would not be sniffed at....Things certainly looking up...heres hoping for a good set of ensembles

JS - After the SSW last year we had several weeks of zonality before the effects kicled in and during that period many of us had doubts if we would benefit.......Memory can be selective and the cold did not set in overnight...we might be a few days behind this year assuming models and Met Office etc. are close to the Mark...Chin up things are starting to get interesting

Hi folks While the past 3 weeks have seemed very boring, mild and grey to most , it is still exceptional weather in its own right, just as much as say December 2010 was exceptional for its cold and snow. It is really rare to get such a sustained dry spell in late December and early January which is traditionally one of the most unsetlled times of the year. Even more unusual is the fact that high pressure has sat over us for most of the period but yet it has been unusually mild with many places having not even seen a frost and some places only saw a glimpse of the sun yesterday for the first time in two weeks. Very strange and unusual goings on and not much change for the next 4 or 5 days. While many will be bored to death by this stage, nonetheless I think the record books in years to come will count this as an exceptional spell of weather in its own right..... ....and possibly an exceptional spell in an exceptional winter.....Why???.....Well I am now confident that a change is coming and looking at all the latest strat and ensemble data etc. I feel we will be extremely unlucky to miss out on a major cold spell as we go through this month and on in to February. In fact when this winter is done it could well be remembered as the winter of extremes with the exceptional rain and winds of the early period followed by the current extremely dry / mild and grey spell & hopefully the big freeze with lots of snow to come. It is like this winter is a slowly evolving wheel with patterns setting up for several weeks at a time. So chins up coldies ....the next phase of this winter is coming .....gradually turning more unsettled and colder next week before the descent in to winter proper with frost amd hopefully plenty of the white stuff to keep all the snow lovers in here happy....... Bottled Snow

Exactly....if we got a repeat of March 13 or March 18 this year, very few would be complaining. The snow thawed over a few days in March just gone due to change in weather pattern with higher dew points and rain. If the cold easterlies had held on for several more days so would the snow such were the accumulations that fell in many places. Yes an inch of snow will thaw much quicker in mid March than mid December but then it is often easier to get better synoptics to deliver decent snow events later in the season than in December, purely based on history.... Anyhow the ensembles continue to move in the right direction and the SSW has still to show it's full hand so still good chance of snowy weather turning up later in Jan and through Feb before we even have to worry about March ..... If you run through the Feb 18 archived charts after the SSW there was a 2 to 3 week spell of mundane and sometimes unsettled weather before things started to fall in to place for later in the month. No gaurantees, but we could just be now going through the 2019 mundane spell before the fun starts later in Jan...

Another change to wording from yesterday is that milder interludes are 'still possible' rather than 'are likely'.

Possibly one of The most encouraging charts of the season so far....would like to hear John Holmes take on that chart......as being honest if the "hunt for cold" thread this winter was a movie we would already be on about the 25th sequel......with the last line of each being - "to be continued".....