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Bottled Snow

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    South Kilkenny, Ireland
  1. Yes my interest / excitement only really gathers pace when cold spells come in to range of Fax charts which are generated with professional met input....excited now...
  2. Latest 120 hour fax chart.....notice the warm front in Atlantic west of Ireland facing / heading northwest towards Iceland rather than the normal push eastwards....sure sign of retrogession of cold block...UK and Ireland already in easterly flow ....awaiting infux of very cold uppers and snow from east....stunning output.......night all...
  3. No quick route to mild from there. Ties in with Met forecasting that this could be a prolonged cold spell
  4. Yes we are under an easterly influence a few days from now. It is only a matter of how long it takes the really cold uppers to reach our shores. Looking at this mornings charts, days 7 to 8 seems a good call but temperatures are slowly droping each day from midweek onwards as the high is already in place. However don't be surprised to see it turn colder a day or two earlier as this is a very rare event and I feel models may still be underestimating the full potential of this record breaking SSW
  5. 1987 is the still the champ of all easterlies in my opinion and left a lasting impression. The charts currently being modelled are as close to those synoptics as one could wish to see...Still a way to go before we can get too excited, but if ever we had a chance of seeing something similar to that event, albeit late in the season, then this is surely it.....The latest fax chart I posted above is positive in that regard, as the building blocks are clearly being laid in a relatively reliable timeframe, and with met forecasters input ....exciting times for sure
  6. Latest 120 hour fax chart....scandi high in place ......turning colder at the surface in freshening east wind...it seems this predicted very cold spell is starting to take shape
  7. alright hands up peeps..... which one of you was on the train with colonelks ?😘
  8. The uppers on these mean charts are colder than on the operational run. Good.... The mild runs in mean chart will skew the mean. So if the colder cluster is correct ,expect uppers to be lower again in reality than the mean currently shows........Very good Icon is the new God of models......Excellent
  9. Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Fair enough everyone is entitled to their opinion. I just would not see them making a forecast for the reasons you outlined. Yes every forecast is a punt as such but based on the best information to hand. In 2012 they were very much on the fence whether it would turn very cold or remain very mild. As it turned out the cold and snow reached the east while the west was mild. This time they are much more bullish and state that it 'May' turn milder at times in the west so a higher liklihood that cold will win out this time in my opinion....all will be revealed in due couse ....
  10. Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Ha Ha I doubt very much that the UK MET would take a punt on a forecast they hope will come off so they can say they said it first. They are a professional organisation with access to much more data than we have. They are calling it cold because that is what the information they have to hand is pointing towards. If it was pointing to mild they would changed their forecast......
  11. and in general and from experience watching models, once UKMO flips at short range to a colder scenario it usually ends up correct......2013 and WTF springs to mind....
  12. Yes earlier runs showed majority of members going the cold route whereas 18z shows cold runs slightly in minority. Let's sleep tight and hope for upgrades over next few days....
  13. I counted 8 brilliant runs for cold from mid term to day 16. Another few eventually get there right at the end. However there are now marginally less very cold members in this suite compared to last few days. Still a strong enough signal and maybe a rogue set, but worrying all the same. We need to see tomorrow's suites show more cold runs to raise confidence. It would also be good to see the operationals come on board with the colder solutions Night all....
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