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weatherguy

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  1. GFSP out to +96h now, quite remarkable how different it is to the GFS at such a short timescale.
  2. Personally not a fan of these anomaly means in isolation, particularly in FI where the anomalies are watered down by law of averages. Were this to verify exactly as is, there would still be LP over greenland as the "average" is very low pressure, just minutely less. As such I only become interested in these where the anomaly is particularly great, which is very rare at this range.
  3. Must be noted that despite the doom and gloom (understandable, given the eye candy we've been treated to in the past couple of weeks in FI), a mean never really getting above 0c at 850hpa still signals a largely blocked setup with no typically zonal weather for the time of year.
  4. 150h now....Slight variations to its last run, but much of the same theme - GFSP sticking to its guns.
  5. Too early to tell, it's only out to +84h. 6z GFSP 12z GFSP
  6. GFSP/GFS/ECM/UKMO +144h: Same again 48 hours later, excluding the UKMO as it doesn't run out this far, +192h: In essence, we have the ECM/GFS vs GFSP/UKMO. By +144h, the NH pattern for all is, as expected at this range, broadly similar. However, the 2 sets handle the Canadian sector with huge differences. In essence, the GFSP has the Canadian LP positioned far enough NE that it is able to influence the sciceland high, thus allowing the siberian PV segment to drop in behind. This is seen by +192, and the UKMO would perhaps progress to a similar scenario. For the GFS and ECM, this does not happen and in the prior the high melts away (worst case scenerio), while the ECM has the high go through a combination of retrogression and sinking, which does pull the high to a similar position as is seen in the GFSP, but prevents the siberian PV from dropping in around its back. Until the Canadian sector is resolved, the evolution of this scenario remains uncertain. All eyes should be looking west, not east, over the next few days to see how this progresses.
  7. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS 18z's LP to our WSW at +216h will take a different orientation nearer to time. It really wouldn't take much of a correction to send more energy SE, cutting off the sceuro high and advecting that lovely siberian cold. We shall see, plenty to play for. In the meantime, enjoy some potential frosts and some snow showers next week for the lucky ones as the anticyclone takes hold. Certainly beats mild zonality!
  8. Really? Even if this comes to fruition at +240h (it won't), it's nowhere near awful for long term prospects. The atlantic is still pretty much shut down and the PV is draining east. In order to see the relative potential of the above...look no further than a chart I've grabbed from the archives. Blergh.
  9. Yup, the ICON giving us the lovely "surprised bear" NH pattern at 120h... Good to see the high being cut off slowly in the east.
  10. +150h GFS12z. Keep an eye on that developing low south of newfoundland - that's the trigger for retrogression if all goes smoothly.
  11. It certainly is interesting. Before the potential fun and games begins around the 24th (caveat as always being that this can and will change, but alas), we have uppers around -4c/-5c by +138h. Usual wisdom dictates that -5c/-6c is usually sufficient for snowfall, but with low dew points as seen with easterlies then anything below 0c should be snow. With the high SSTs coming from the time of year, then this helps us on the conduction side of things, but also this certainly modifies the situation regarding the required uppers. The result of my rambling? Inconclusive. Lamp-watching will be required for this early period...Perhaps limited to night-time.
  12. The classic period of March-April 2013?
  13. Well well well...No hopefully needed there - the 12z GFS goes on to be a thing of immaculate beauty! Brings back memories of "that ECM" a few years back with an incredible long-fetch north easterly!
  14. By 186 we see some lovely WAA heading up to greenland...hopefully this leads to some retrogression of the HP and that siberian PV lobe drops in behind.
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