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smith25

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Everything posted by smith25

  1. smith25
    To my utter lack of surprise the models are now coming together to some middle ground. This is what happens almost every time with these types of events. Yet people always get caught up in the drama.
  2. smith25
    I see the GFS has had it's wobble and back tracked slightly. I wouldn't worry it will come back in a couple of days. Although I'm going to stick my neck out and say next week is unlikely to be snow fest for most of us and the models may back track to a middle ground between the ECM and the GFS. I hope I'm wrong.
  3. smith25
    Ecm comes full circle again as predicted!. Plenty of time of changes this week, good or bad for snow lovers, just don't get so hung up on each run and don't start looking into too much detail until is coming into the 48 to 72 hour range. I'm expecting the GFS to have a wobble over the next day or so.
  4. smith25
    Way way to far away to look at precipitation yet.
  5. smith25
    I'm glad it's come back on board 12hrs earlier than expected!
  6. smith25
    I'll be very surprised if the ECM back tracks tonight. As I mentioned yesterday the runs tomorrow, in my opinion, will start showing the cold spell.
  7. smith25
    How does it compare to yesterdays 0z?
  8. smith25
    By Monday the ECM will fall in line. Straight after that the GFS will back track for a couple of days. That's what usually happens at least!.
  9. smith25
    Now you've done it!
  10. smith25
    Actually I can remember one ramp going back a few years ago!
  11. smith25
    If I remember rightly, going by years of watching, this model confusion is a good sign that a decent cold spell is coming. I suspect the ECM will start moving towards the cold spell after the weekend. I'd only be concerned if the ukmo stops showing this for a few runs. In the end we'll probably end up with a halfway house like usual.
  12. smith25
    It's like clockwork every year. This is the typical downgrade before a slight upgrade to a middle ground scenario.
  13. smith25
    How about we get the cold air in first before worry about the breakdown. Plenty of ups and downs to come before that happens.
  14. smith25
    Which was a possibility and still could happen.
  15. smith25
    I was expecting a downgrade over the weekend. This is pretty common but beware this is also just one variation of many possibilities and so far only one run.
  16. smith25
    Welcome back BFTP. I'm a long time lurker here and you are definitely one of the posters I always pay attention too.
  17. smith25
    I'm sure they'll be plenty of ups and downs over the weekend to come until we get to around Tuesday. The usual par for the course is downgrades over the weekend with plenty of upset posters followed by a minor upgrade Monday/Tuesday to minor cold event. They'll only be upgrades this weekend if this cold patch is going to be something special.
  18. smith25
    Snow has slowed right down here now. Thought it was going to last much longer if I'm honest
  19. smith25
    Just starting to snow lightly here.
  20. smith25
    Lamp post watching it is tonight then.
  21. smith25
    Anyone know if Essex is likely to join in later?
  22. smith25
    I see another forum tantrum is in process. Relax everyone as what makes you think the current output is more certain than the colder runs yesterday?. The model outputs in the medium term are unreliable. Give it until Thursday afternoon and then judge the Christmas to new year model runs.
  23. smith25
    Not to nit pick but looking for details of any snow at this range is pointless. Get the cold in first and it's especially not worth worrying about charts in the 6 to 10 day period.
  24. smith25
    Should catch up tonight hopefully I think.
  25. smith25
    I don't believe that's true anyway.
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