dixonoid

That low that is progged to come into play next weekend looks quite strong, experience tells us these things always come in a bit weaker.

One thing that has stuck in my mind about this summer, was the news of the warm Atlantic. Only one thing could come of this, with all that moisture being released into the atmosphere, my expectations of abnormal summer where quashed and normal British summer has resumed :-@

Change the title of the thread to the hunt for warmth and watch those lovely cold charts start miraculously appearing

t850Cambridgeshire (1).webp Going by the ensembles, FI is very, very early on, so to me is a sign that the reversal is starting to kick in, as early as the 24th the spaghetti is being thrown everywhere. One constant is whatever happens, I don't think the 850s are going above -5 for a while, here's to the rollercoaster model watching, lol.

We have been in a blocked pattern for most of last year, due to the ssw early last year, I don't quite think normal UK weather has resumed it's normal pattern, so this ssw will eventually deliver , as someone has said, the vortex had split with downwelling to lower levels, so I think we would have to be really unlucky to see proper winter arrive. The ensembles have been like a roller coaster, although I have watched the weather models, I've had more interest in the ensembles, coz they are showing how unpredictable the models are being in the medium and as always long range. My 10 pence worth, lol

Omg!! I do believe the hunt for cold is over, in my freezer there was ice everywhere,on a serious note, this year has been controlled by high pressure one way or another, after the strat warming earlier in the year, the weather hasn't been the same, no constant attacks from low pressure from the Atlantic, so the odds are, if we get the blocking high in the right position I feel this winter is going to be very cold and I looks like mainly coming from the east. With the PV allover the place, not allowing a strong jet, which produces the low pressure conveyer and any future strat warming are just going to play further unpredictable havock with our weather, warmer sst's after the summer will help with the North sea snow Machine when a proper easterly sets up

Going by the ensembles for Norfolk, I'm not holding out for spring to arrive during march, the daffodils are going to be shivering for a while longer.

That awkward moment you accidently read the model discussion archive, with massive down grades :-@ Back to the present, lol , looking cold for the foreseeable and with the extra stratosphere warning, maybe with us for a while :-)

It seems to me the weekend is the 18z very hungover brother, output always seems to be missing something :-@ when the models go in low res, it's like someone let's down a balloon. I think the easterly is gonna be like Mr deeds butler, but interesting model watching.

I think the easterly this time is going to be a lot different and the block is going to be stubborn to shift, as the Vortex is on the move a more European position than Canadian, so it's going to be third time lucky by the looks of it and we are going to actually get a cold easterly or Beasterly!! :-) The pattern this year has been a Siberian high with undercutting lows and not much in the way of -Nao, which every one has been looking for! Hopefully we get a Negative Nao soon or i feel we may have another write off summer with the Northern blocking we have been looking for! PV more Canada based Pv Moving into more european position :-) I think this cold snap is going to have a nasty sting to it :-)

I think it is a low pressure system, that manages to slip past the block of high pressure, following the jet stream, and as it passes causes a snowy problem, if things are cold enough! Probably wrong lol, but this what my understanding is, please correct me if im wrong :-)

Now started snowing here very lightly!

Radar says yes! But lampost says no, lol!! But shouldn't be long now

If it links with high pressure further south, it should start dragging warmer air north. firming the grip of the block.

Well the Nogaps has good blocking over greenland, and would mean cold weather, maybe prolonged, and the GFS 12z ensembles are showing a cold snap from friday 20th until about the 23rd! And because the ensembles are clusttered together, the potential is greater as there is good agreement from the control and all the perturbations, during this period.

Going by the GFS, the above may be right. But looking at the ECM and UKMO, maybe, not so mild, struggling to maybe 2-3c during the day on saturday.

GEM 144HRS UKMO 144HRS NOGAPS 144HRS ECM 144HRS GFS 144HRS Looking at the above models, GFS seems to be the only one not showing some sort of northerly flow at this time! But the ECM still showing a colder flow on Saturday, but seems to have moved towards the GFS, but is somewhere inbetween the UKMO and the GFS. But at this moment at 144hrs, there looks like there is more support for some sort of northerly than not! But a long way out at the moment, when it gets a lot nearer I will be happy, would be nice to see better agreement between the models, would make this thread easier to follow.

I have had a look at the the Nh for 120 hrs, and the biggest difference between the 3 is the ridge in the atlantic and the GFS does look very flat, so in my eyes although there isn't total model agreement, the GFS looks like it is still on it's own. And looking at the GFS ensembles There does seem to be a lot of uncertainty after day 4, which is about the time the models have been showing the change to happen (to colder that is) So for me, when the 18/19 th is sorted model wise, things should look a bit clearer, maybe! But one thing that is for sure, it isn't going to be overly mild, looking at the mean for my neck of the woods, showing on average -4 uppers, from about the 20th.

Looking at the posts today, by what I can make out, the GFS seems to be on it's own and by a recent post about the NOAA discussions, struggling after 72 hours, I do like the look of the ECM because it shows the colder weather, but this model seems to have some support by other models, ie: UKMO. So my feeling is that the GFS will fall into line with the ECM, not because it's showing cold, because it seems to have been more consistant the last couple of days.

I just had a look at 120hrs on the ECM 6z & 12z and UKMO 0z and 12z, so going by what they think about the pattern so far, it looks like things are moving too quickly across the atlantic by this time frame ( just looking at the high pressure over us on the fax and it is a lot further west then the UKMO and ECM show.

Just a quick question, the fax chart shows the high pressure over us further west @120 hrs, how do they work out the fax chart, is it a combination of the models and finding the middle ground? Because looking at this chart, are they thinking that the pattern is moving west to east to quickly? Maybe a weaker jet,just a thought. Thanks.

Sorry about that sure I saw 12z in the corner, a bit premature from me!!

Looks like some sort of easterly to me. Edit: looked good before it updated, lol!

Flicking between 6z and 12z, everything has moved a little bit west and the pressure has increased in the arctic.