mikeocarroll

70mph mean wind speed at Mumbles Head according to Mumbles Head - Live Weather Station - Magicseaweed MAGICSEAWEED.COM Mumbles Head - Live Weather Station - Magicseaweed Very nearly hurricane force on Beaufort Scale.

No real change. People just over-analyse every run ("50 miles north", "50 miles south"). Expect you will get snow in Blackwood. Down on the south coast it is much more marginal and there won't be any certainty over the rain / snow boundary other than looking out the window tomorrow.

Pity it's not snow really as there's an awful lot cold rain for Swansea today. Expect elevated areas will get a fair bit of snow later - looks like Mid Wales are already getting some.

There's am Amber warning for rain across much of South Wales tonight https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-05-31 "good chance of as much as 60-80mm in 2-3 hours in some places" That would be pretty exceptional.

Mumbles Head 60mph sustained wind speed i.e. storm force 10. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcjjm7j5g It does seem pretty windy out but can't see any damage.

Agree that squall about half and hour ago was unbelievable. Well not quite unbelievable (it is Swansea after all), but interesting!

Plenty of precipitation here in Swansea - much more than I expected. If we could combine our precipitation rate with your precipitation type, we'd be sorted...

Woke up in the night with howling wind and hammering rain/hail, thought "that must be a squall line". Some disruption on the roads this morning: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-30824145

Got back to Swansea today and was just 6.0c in my flat (on the inside)! Took a long time to heat up. It's the coldest it's been in Swansea since I moved here in January and already sub-zero outside tonight.

Let's go for... 2.8C please.

Snow has turned back to rain/sleet in Presteigne. There was a dusting earlier but mostly washed away now.

Sleet turned to wet snow in Presteigne about 20 mins ago. Not settling at the moment (at approx 200m).

Steady drizzle for the last hour or so near Presteigne. Good vis of hill tops as well which suggests no snow higher up either at the moment - though the hills are only up to about 400m.

Perhaps overnight tonight as the wind direction turns NW then NNW, which should bring some showers to Wales, especially Pembs. Whether this will fall as snow is dubious but quite possible.

Charts starting to show a lot more interest for cold spell in the Christmas to New Year period. Too far out to have any certainty yet but the best charts that have been showing so far this winter. Even if doesn't come off it's good to have some eye candy on the charts.

5.5c for me please

Would you prefer sunshine or blizzards?

There were a few rumbles of thunder here in Swansea as the main band passed through about 6.30, but none too close. A bit of hail mixed in with the rain also I think, but wasn't really awake. Expecting the rain to stop soon and then some heavy showers through the morning, possibly thundery.

6..6c for me please. I can't be more wrong than I was in February, when I went for 1.8!

Back from a run along the sea front. If this keeps up it looks like the snow ploughs are finally going to get used for the first time this winter - clearing sand from Oystermouth Road With the sand dunes washed away by the recent high tides, the wind is moving the beach onto the road. I'm still digging sand out of my ears.

I've moved down to Swansea last week, and while it has many advantages, I do mourn the snow-friendliness of my previous mid-Wales location. Radar suggest it is snowing in Llandrindod Wells now, which would be the first since Christmas there. No snow yet in my (low down) part of Swansea, just a bit of hail about half an hour ago. Am hoping for a bit of snow in showers over the next few hours.

1.8c please.

Tonight's ECM suggests many opportunities for battleground-type snow events over Wales as low pressure systems "slide" under the blocking heights. As ever, we know that these are knife edge situations that can lead to lots of snow if we are in the narrow sweet spot (e.g. S Wales valleys in Jan 2013, N Wales in March 2013), whereas if we are only a tiny bit out of the sweet spot then we face only rain on the one hand or dry on the other. It's all still at the edge of reliable timeframe at the moment, even for the broad synoptic pattern (reliable timeframe for snowfall details is about 12 hours) and GFS and UKMO models show less optimal solutions. Lots of interesting model watching to come over the remainder of the week - further upgrades could see snowy potential as early as Monday over the hills, but at the moment Tuesday into Wednesday is probably looking the best bet for some wintry conditions.

Sadly it's a myth that cold weather comes from the USA to the UK - there's a big warm ocean between us so any cold air that leaves the USA in our direction is warm by the time it reaches us. For us in the UK to have cold weather, the air has to originate from the north or east. There are some hints in the models that the endless train of wet and windy weather could come to an end in a week or so, and some colder solutions are possible.

Some very heavy hail showers this morning / early afternoon, including a brief thunderstorm about 2 hours ago. Bonus facebook pic of the seafront at Aberystwyth: How much is it going to cost to tidy up pretty much every seafront/promenade on the west wales coast?