mikeocarroll

No real change. People just over-analyse every run ("50 miles north", "50 miles south"). Expect you will get snow in Blackwood. Down on the south coast it is much more marginal and there won't be any certainty over the rain / snow boundary other than looking out the window tomorrow.

Pity it's not snow really as there's an awful lot cold rain for Swansea today. Expect elevated areas will get a fair bit of snow later - looks like Mid Wales are already getting some.

There's am Amber warning for rain across much of South Wales tonight https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-05-31 "good chance of as much as 60-80mm in 2-3 hours in some places" That would be pretty exceptional.

Mumbles Head 60mph sustained wind speed i.e. storm force 10. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcjjm7j5g It does seem pretty windy out but can't see any damage.

5.5c for me please

There were a few rumbles of thunder here in Swansea as the main band passed through about 6.30, but none too close. A bit of hail mixed in with the rain also I think, but wasn't really awake. Expecting the rain to stop soon and then some heavy showers through the morning, possibly thundery.

6..6c for me please. I can't be more wrong than I was in February, when I went for 1.8!

Back from a run along the sea front. If this keeps up it looks like the snow ploughs are finally going to get used for the first time this winter - clearing sand from Oystermouth Road With the sand dunes washed away by the recent high tides, the wind is moving the beach onto the road. I'm still digging sand out of my ears.

I've moved down to Swansea last week, and while it has many advantages, I do mourn the snow-friendliness of my previous mid-Wales location. Radar suggest it is snowing in Llandrindod Wells now, which would be the first since Christmas there. No snow yet in my (low down) part of Swansea, just a bit of hail about half an hour ago. Am hoping for a bit of snow in showers over the next few hours.

1.8c please.

Tonight's ECM suggests many opportunities for battleground-type snow events over Wales as low pressure systems "slide" under the blocking heights. As ever, we know that these are knife edge situations that can lead to lots of snow if we are in the narrow sweet spot (e.g. S Wales valleys in Jan 2013, N Wales in March 2013), whereas if we are only a tiny bit out of the sweet spot then we face only rain on the one hand or dry on the other. It's all still at the edge of reliable timeframe at the moment, even for the broad synoptic pattern (reliable timeframe for snowfall details is about 12 hour

Sadly it's a myth that cold weather comes from the USA to the UK - there's a big warm ocean between us so any cold air that leaves the USA in our direction is warm by the time it reaches us. For us in the UK to have cold weather, the air has to originate from the north or east. There are some hints in the models that the endless train of wet and windy weather could come to an end in a week or so, and some colder solutions are possible.

Some very heavy hail showers this morning / early afternoon, including a brief thunderstorm about 2 hours ago. Bonus facebook pic of the seafront at Aberystwyth: How much is it going to cost to tidy up pretty much every seafront/promenade on the west wales coast?

Also a severe flood alert for parts of Newport. High tide in Newport is 07.30am so if you live there in a vulnerable area then it may be worth being prepared tonight and getting up very early tomorrow to check the situation. I feel very fortunate to live in a location that would be more or less impossible to flood.

Gwlyb.