essexweather

Was a few freak gusts around 5AM on Saturday morning, highest being 54mph.

TBH, when the new text forecasts came through via DataPoint a few hours ago I was surprised by the "heavy rain" on the south coast. Even their own model doesn't have any rain along the coast tomorrow evening/night. Can anyone find one that does? I wouldn't take much notice at this stage anyway :)

Tonight will be a nowcast situation for sure, but the latest run of the UKV has pepped up the back edge of the snow-band across London, Kent and Essex. Heaviest looks likely between 21Z and 00Z with the last clearing the extreme east of Kent around 01Z. Thursday is complicated, too complicated to look into until a few more model runs are out! Good luck tonight if you're hoping for snow 😄

Some nice looking charts again this morning. Fits in nicely with the 15-30 day UKMO forecast from yesterday. ECM starting to roll...

Only a trace here and there, South of London, Hertfordshire and 1-2CM over the Midlands. Timing is great with most of it during the early hours. Daytime temperatures from all of the models are not great, 3-4C for most. Charts are eye-candy for sure but at ground level it's hard to get excited just yet.

Better UKMO run, some back-edge snow over Central Southern England Monday night/Tuesday first run to show this. Uppers down to -7C over East Anglia. After the craziness of the 18Z GFS, the latest GFS run is fine with snow for many middle of next week. All eyes on the ECM 😮

Increased confidence from the CF of some sleet and wet snow across parts of the region Friday night and early Saturday, mostly higher ground but to low levels in heavier bursts. No accumulations expected, but North Downs wouldn't be out the question for a dusting. A few of the London airport TAFs have sleet midnight to 07Z Saturday.

Can't access from home 😞 Toggling the run through 120-132-144hr its obvious the high is edging further in from the Atlantic which is not good. If the ECM delivers shortly, you'd expect the 12Z UKMO to push everything further West. Baby steps!

Big improvement from the UKMO this morning, decent snow event moving South-Eastwards out of Scotland late weekend. This was all rain on yesterdays 12Z over lower ground in the South. 850s are generally -5 to -7c across the East and Midlands this run in the latter stages 🙂

Morning all 😄 Hopefully a day of stability and/or upgrades ahead starting with the 00Z runs. Fingers crossed the UKMO edges closer towards the Euro today, as that's the only model worrying me at present. GFS underway:

Great output this morning from GFS, UKMO and ECM. This makes two runs in a row with decent cross-model agreement. One thing to remember, we are no longer at day 10 with the cold charts, they are in the short-range now! Will be exciting when we get to the weekend to start picking out the features that will bring the snow from the middle of next week 😁

Bit of a surprise how poor the output is for the medium term on the 00Z GFS and UKMO 😮 Potential for sleet and snow for some, but the slushy kind and gone by lunchtime sort. On to the ECM...

Differences between UKMO and GFS significant once more on the 00Z runs. Hopefully the ECM doesn't start pulling towards GFS. Weds, Thurs, Fri should bring plenty of snow showers to low-levels across parts of the UK either way, so lots to look forward to and this is before the main event later in the month.

Everything has been pushed back a week but the signals are still there, albeit weaker than before. Once the bank holiday is out the way, I'm sure the Met Office will start to emphasise (via their press office) that the SSW is no guarantee of severe cold and a multitude of outcomes remain on the table. There is now very high confidence that apart from a brief colder snap this coming week, nothing wintry for the large majority of UK is expected out to the 15th January. This is clear from tonights EC ensembles, a staggering 90% keep 2m temperatures at or above average (7-9C) during days 10-14. The last 15 days of January and the whole of February could still deliver the goods.

Temperature fell to 0.7C around 10PM, now up to 4.9C. Avoiding the fog here tonight, but no doubt will return tomorrow night with lighter winds.