R.P. McMurphy

Yup, it's very hard to trust anything past 84 hours or so at the moment - we even had quite a good agreement with the ECM last time... Next day... We all know what happened.

Rain...

2C here, and dew point is 0.6C - so should be crappy rain as usual.

I think we have had 2 frosts this year? Shocking! Heading up to Teggs Nose today, it's about 360M ASL, so potential for some snow while I'm walking the dog. Was going to go somewhere else in the peaks, it's 630M ASL so a guarantee snow, but with the missus 9 months pregnant I can't risk being out so far !

That's the best terminology I have heard lol !Forget all your Shannon Entropy etc words....It's, The Bladder Low.

Temp 32.5C - Having a nice BBQ, tan lines already. GTFO WInter 2013/14.

http://www.derbyshireheritage.co.uk/Menu/webcams/camlist.php Snowing in Chesterfield. Leek, Matlock Bath & the A537 (Cat & Fiddle)

I think I just weed.

Yes, that forecast went all wrong really - But was this due to underestimating the strength of the block out East? Maybe so if you look at how the low has quickly in the wrong direction they were saying... It's not often the Met Office are wrong to be honest, but with pretty much 85% agreement of a cold and potentially snowy spell next week, they don't mention anything, and until they do, I usher caution. Lets not forget, they do have access to a much broader scale of charts than we do... And they are Professionals.

I think we are all well aware that charts in advance and never a guarantee, but I think many of times the Mods & Paul has stated, if you have a post along the lines of "I dont think it will do this" Just Because you have that gut feeling, or it's happened before, then that should be in the Banter thread, as it's clearly not reflecting what all of the models are showing. Your OP of the Atlantic will power through etc - is completely false, as no where does it show this on the charts, so why post it if it's a gut feeling, it confuses other members who don't kinow how to read the charts or are struggling to read the charts. I understand what you are saying, we have ALL been burnt many of times by charts showing very snowy periods and cold, because they are notoriously difficult to predict, so I am in full agreement with you there, we should not get excited until maybe T~48, even though I have seen it go belly up at T~24 before... But please, please, please think before posting what your "Gut Feeling" is, because it's of no use to anyone. Also this: I'll have you know it snowed here yesterday at 20M ASL ! And that was from a super brief WNW flow.

Come on Shed, admit it, you have one foot and two toes on the harbour (snow) wall... And you're pleasantly enjoying yourself...

What kind of statement is that to make then post the above images? The GFS is fantastic for cold and snow towards the end of the month and into February. Also regarding the ECM: The whole country is under -5C 850's - and you come out with that statement. I can't help but feel you are rather on a massive Wum, or simply don't know how to read the charts properly. Even Shedhead's coming on board and that's saying something.

Agree with some of this - A cold spell/snap is never nailed on in the UK - So we shouldn't get too hung up about it. The UKMO and ECM has been showing potential for cold to arrive next week for quite a few days now, and we do have quite a lot of X-Model agreement... So while nothing is nailed on, it's around 85% chance of it happening next week, and maybe even Sunday will throw up a few surprises. I have been surprised today regarding the rain and how quickly / less intense it was shunted SSE, shows how strong that block is.

Yep, appears Met coming more on board as the models showing the block being a lot stronger that before. Looks like I was right to question this yesterday when Shedhead advised I was arguing his point...

Yup, back on topic that is a great chart - we almost have the Arctic-Scandi link up... Is Winter starting to finally wake up.... ? If the models continue that pattern there's only one way it's going to turn out, and thats a cold Easterly flow. I think Ian F mentioned something regarding the temperatures across Germany the other day?

Yep thanks for this Nick, didn't see shed's post - due to a neat feature on NW... But to add my stance I wasn't hell bent on anything, just merely asking for clarification, & I have liked Ian's post due to his response, it clears it up well. Ian's posting on here is invaluable, and I do hope he feels like people are not hell bent on disagreeing with him. I'm certainly a fan... Maybe a quick autograph Ian ? Next week is still up in the air, as we all know a week's worth of Model Output does not have the best verification stats, and it's nice to hear 10% of members still going for an Easterly next week, so it;s all still to play for, albeit 90% go for some form of "Zonal" - maybe Ian can clear up what they refer to as Zonal ?

That was a real nice surprise that. Coming down the M60 I spotted that huge streamer and seen how intense it looked... BOOM thunder followed by Lightening as I approached.... Still not under the streamer yet.... I glanced at the temperature gauge... 8C.... 500 yards more down the M60...huge hail storm, I'm now under the streamer... Temp gauge, 8C...7C....6C....5C....4C....3C.... Snow starts falling, sleet, hail... More snow... The Great British Weather ! You have to love it.

Wow look at that streamer. First snow of the winter It's well heavy. It was 7C and when I got under that cloud it went to 3C lightning and heavy snow/hail Thundersnow

Hmmm.. How does one have high confidence circa 10 days in advance to a return of Zonal & no issues regards lowland snow, but a 30% probability of 10-15mm of rain for the next day? I would take it with a pinch of salt re snow issues next week, especially amounts/quantities. I can count a lot of times the forecast has been "Little snow" and turned out to be quite a lot.

Yup, wet & horrible... But Winters coming if UKMO comes off we will all be rolling in white stuff.

Yep, it wasn't really correct & wasn't the whole picture as you say. Just look where the 528 DAM is in that Cold flow. Would be wintry for quite a few places. But none the less, it's FI and won't stay like that.

Hoping the peaks get some snow tomorrow and possibly weekend - would head up there with the dog ! Sunday is a worthy date.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU?

Good man, so it happens ! I remember the Thundersnow last year very well - infact I don't remember another event of it for IMBY - probably was one, but I don't remember. Amazing though them, gives me memories.

I don't understand it either. There is a chance no doubt, and pretty much the first one this winter - ina WNW flow it's not the most ideal, but it can snow. Any historical WNW flow charts Kev ?