Cavehill Snow
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Posts posted by Cavehill Snow
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2 hours ago, chris55 said:
Look at the amount of energy heading down into the euro trough (not to be taken as a forecast ) though does remind me of dec 2010! A large chunk of the PV effectively taking up residence over France :0 (SSW influenced I should think)
I hope you are correct, but is there not another shortwave South of Greenland which would prevent a high pressure link up (unlike Dec 2010) and allow warmer air to infiltrate as the shortwave moves east, then southeast towards UK / IRE and put us back to where we are going to be over the next 3-4 days?
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56 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Icelandic spoiler alert. Here's the GFS/ECM comparison
ECM very close to forming a closed low / shortwave at 12z - maybe if it had developed it into a shortwave, ECM may have followed similar course as GFS. ECM goes on to form a closed low / shortwave at 240 which may have implications for sustainability / longetivity going foward thereafter , but that is a long long way into the future
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9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Low is significantly more intense at only t60
Hù
Is there a danger of the shortwave closest to Ireland phasing with the shortwave near Scandi?
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sleet/wet snow all day tuned to snow in Dunmurry about 6:30pm - been on & off since and is about 3.5 inches now - so much better (less drippy) snow than last Friday. If it had been colder during day we would have had some fall. Still well pleased with tonight.
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Comparing the 06Z NAE and GFS to the actual 12Z Valentia sounding shows that at -3 to -4 °C both models are slightly too warm at 850 hPa, which was actually -4.7 °C in the sounding. Theta-w and theta-e were both similar to the sounding, at around +3.5 and +15 °C.
500-1000 thicknesses were slightly too high, at around 533 dm compared to 532 dm measured, but 850-1000 were bang on at around 1300 m, compared to the 1302 m measured.
So even at 6 hours the models are showing 1-2 degrees error at 850 hPa, which just shows how marginal things can be.
!NOWCAST!
Compared to you and your excellent technical knowledge I'm a complete dyslexic in comparison!
If I understand you correctly the 850 temps the models predicted were too high when compared to actual recordings. Can we assume that this Valentia over-estimation is replicated at other locations around Ireland, and, do you think that the upper temps/dew points etc are favourable enough for more locations to get snow from the precipitation approaching from the Irish Sea?
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Just had a look at the radar again - the snow in se England has a finger of snow developing to it's north which has moved into nw of English midlands and looks like it will reach n Wales quite soon. It is moving wnw and, whilst this may be a bit of a stretch, it could come this side of Irish Sea or at least pep up the streamers there.
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Based at Dunmurry (just south of Belfas)t I've been between two separate streamer lines last night and this morning. One originates on north tip of IOM the other the south tip, with main body of IOM acting as a rain (snow) shadow. Don'k know whether I should be blaming IOM or whether it is helping with the formation of the instability which creates the streamers.
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Very Strange... it has moved further out into the Irish sea. It must be a mirage
Yeah I thought it was the start of a new streamer as colours indicated good intensity but subsequent track showed something wasn't quite right with it. Still think Dublin has a chance tonight
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Really?
Looking like streamers may be starting to develop in Irish Sea with Dublin the destination as wind now seems to be turning more direct easterly. From 2010 I seem to remember Dublin done well from east and more especially north easterly winds
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I'm quite jealous of that streamer. I'm happy to see anyone get snow especially big snow. I think we will miss out tomorrow night. Might catch the tale of stuff coming through England. I don't expect much. I think the southwest and mid west will get plastered from their own front though!
Very complex situation looking at the Fax charts - it looks like the low pressures to sw Ireland and over France moving towards se England merge on Monday - waht happens to the positioning of respective fronts and change in air mass characteristics resulting from that very dificult to predict.
Breakdown mid to late next week looking a little more probable, though still time for change for better.
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I thought it looked like picking up to the South of IOM, maybe dying out to the North which was giving Snowjon the Snowfest.
The next half hour will tell all.
Yes I can see what you mean - initially the precip from south of IOM was quite light but I can see it is showing signs of intensifying - could be wrong. It's start base is closer to Co. Down than IOM but that may still work. Here's hoping.
Snowjohn - glad you are getting a snow top up.
Light snow here. Streamer in to Bangor reminds me of 2010.
Well remembered for something not in your back yard, very noble of you! - I also remember it because it was close and no cigar for me, not quite so noble of me! Do you think it will be all snow for you on Sunday night/Monday morning? Hopefully the uppers and dew points "hold up" (pardon the pun - are low enough) and deliver for you.
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Nice one SnowJon.
Looks likeI'll be joining the fun soon.
I love South Easterlies.
Looks like it is dying out if you look at IOM - may restart again later and hopefully on a slightly more southerly track - IMBY obviously
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Snow band looks like it has speeded up moving to ne - was supposed to clear nw before returning south tomorrow. I wonder if temps are slightly higher behind snow and we end up with slight to moderate thaw overnight - I remember something like this happening in the early 2000's sometime before the proper snows of 2008, 2009 & 2010. Hopefully compltely wrong about this, especially after getting good cover today (8cm in grass) after earlier looking to struggle to get anything.
Mindful of not peeing off those members who ended up with zilch after many hours and days of watching charts and posts.
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Was expecting snow by now! Was expecting so much from this but so far things are very localised!!
Looking at radar it has only been intervals of precip for you so far (not sure of your temps as to rain/sleet/snow).
BBCNI tv forecast graphics show more persisitent & heavier a nd settling snow for counties Armagh, Tyrone , Fermanagh, Derry, Monaghan, Leitrim & Donegal this afternoon. Quite a lot of counties in central/northern Leinster look good for settling snow this afternoon (even at coast!).
Been snowing moderately for an hour now at Dunmurry - very, very little settling amounts on grass and car windscreens - nothing on roads & pavements. Horrible cold waterdrops falling of trees. I would imagine Belfast hills would be getting heavy settling snow with great amounts building.
I think the strong wind (gusts 30mph) is the spoiler for us bringing slightly higher air & dew point temps quite a way inland otherwise I would already have around 30 - 50mm by now.
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Bollicks - just seen BBCNI weather - ground temps (& air temps) too high for settling snow in eastern areas & north coast areas until after tea time.
East coasts of Leinster look to do better than Belfast for settling snow this afternoon looking at the graphics which may bring surprose snow to some!
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any thoughts on whether it'll snow in dublin later? nice to hear that our friends up north getting some snow. hope it sticks guys.
I'm no expert but you are just south of a band of sleet/snow sitting a few kms north of Dublin which is moving north but which may come back south a little later today/this evening for a short while as the fronts are predicted to pivot. Thereafter a wintry mix of sleet & snow showers coming in off Irish Sea. Potential on late Sunday for more perisitent snow or sleet but difficult to predict this far out.
I think we still need temps to get closer to freezing point north & south to get any decent settled snow away from high ground.
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Good to hear.
Hopefully it can pick up momentum now with ever lower temps and heavier snow starting to settle to good depths - not much to ask really!!
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Anybody got any snow lying away away from high ground?
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Sorry also to hear about your dad - can't be easy.
Temps are crawling lower - really need to get a move on as according to charts a small low pressure will form over NI today giving plenty of precipitation - just need a 2C drop from our 2/3C at the minute. Great accumulations are possible if it can change to snow.
Regarding futher south, charts show everyone cold over the weekend - strange temps are still pretty high in south west, especially as there are exceptionally cold uppers (relative to Atlantic Ocean) 200 miles west off western seaboard.
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It's just turned to rain and melted most of it here. I'm in Moira.
We need temps to drop soon and quickly if we are to get any of the white stff at all
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Live about 20 minutes from Aldergrove & it's been snowing & laying here.
Whereabouts is that?
Belfast mostly dry, odd light skiffter of rain and 3C
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I don't mean to be sceptical, but who the hell are Northern Ireland Weather? Just checked UKMet, Met Eireann & BBc sites and there are no mentions of warning upgrades, red alerts etc
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This whole will it, won't it snow business is really getting on my wick now - it doesn't look to be like Nov/Dec 2010 when the snow was powder dry and didn't melt for weeks .this time it islikely to be quite wet snow or even sleet away from high ground.
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Hi, its a premium feature, its £2.99 per month
here is a screen shot for you. Red is snow, grey is sleet,
Thanks again
Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Quick question from a novice - is the icelandic shortwave @ECM216 nailed on to drop down, regardless of how far it goes n/s & e/w? Also, is it possible for the shortwave to drop favourably for us so that the eastern flow from Russia through Scandi can link up with Greenland heights? Tia