Cavehill Snow
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Posts posted by Cavehill Snow
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On lunchtime weather forecast that northern western parts of Ireland to get some sleet with snow on high ground from frontal feature tonight. Very transient though so not much by way of snow cover likely. Cold rain for northeast, milder wet & very windy elsewhere.
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6 minutes ago, BIG LAD said:
Didn't take long for the snow to melt. Not a pick left this morning.
I read somewhere that when dew points temperatures are high, snow will melt quicker than in direct sunlight.
At 5pm yesterday my air temp was 2C and snow was mostly intact, by 9pm snow was all gone and temp was 4-5C with very little rainfall.
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Went for walk with wife whilst still snowing - wind and small dry flakes swirling felt great but finished at lunchtime with only 3 or 4 cm. Slow thaw setting in - at least it hasn't rained.
Not sure it was worth the forecasters hype, but still better than it not happening at all. Don't think i'll need the ruler looking at Sperrins photos.
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2 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:
Frosty used to torture me with 1 million questions all the time lol. Then when he didn't get snow he cracked up, badly
I didn't remember his name but when we got cold rain with a few snow flakes thrown in and everybody be disappointed, he'd come on to claim his place had got 20cm of snow when someone else living within a few miles of him had zilch. Then he'd go mental when someone took the mickey out of him.
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11 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
I'm right in that orange zone! BTW, who runs that page? Is it just an amateur operation for a hobby?
Agh gees, don't tell me its some spotty kid with a keyboard? Maybe that school guy on the forum years ago who lived on a mountain near Coleraine!
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4 minutes ago, Donegal said:
I forgot to add these two
Thanks for the info.
It sounds really positive and a near time upgrade rather than the usual downgrade of forecast.
Just hope the "wintry mix" rather than snow for coastal areas doesn't come into play.
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Looks good for the west, another miss for the east.
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
it won’t just be the ec46 .....if they are expecting another reversal wave to downwell then that will likely be with glosea support ...
There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts.
Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these?
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Moscow has 35 cm of snow on the ground and this weekend a super storm will dump another 40 cm. US expecting 5 snow storms over the next 10 days.
Our measly 1-4 cm here will probably make more headlines here than events in US / Russia will in their homelands.
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Can't happen, can it?
BFTE only gave my place about 4-5 cm, whilst places 5 miles to my south had 10-15 cms. Neice in Wicklow got 30+.
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1 hour ago, ronan said:
From NI Weather.....
The NI Weather & Flood Advisory Service has issued the following weather warning.
A Warning of Snow & Ice has been issued for Northern Ireland. This is something we have been monitoring & forecasting over the past several days. This is an update/amendment to our advisory and has been upgraded to a warning. It's likely that this warning may be upgraded to Level 2 for some areas.
Warning valid from 22:00 12/02/2021 Until at least 18:00 13/02/2021
An Atlantic weather front will move into NI later Friday and throughout Saturday and as this encounters the very cold air currently in place, it is expected to turn readily to heavy sleet & snow, first in Western areas but extending to all parts overnight. (Similar to the fairly widespread snowfall event the country experienced on 23-24th January)
Accumulations of up to 5cm are possible quite widely across the country and as much as 10-15cm locally and more so over higher ground (Possibly as much as 20cm in one or two spots) Some areas on higher ground & high level routes may become impassable for a time. (Some coastal areas may see a more wintry mix)
NB: Accumulations will again vary and some areas will likely see more than others.
Strong winds of up to 30-50mph may be an additonal hazard, leading to temporary blizzard conditions in places exposed to the wind. This combined with falling snow and possible freezing rain could cause some localised disruption to power supplies.
Ice will become an issue across many areas, leading to hazardous driving conditions especially in areas with snow cover.
There is a chance during Saturday afternoon of the sleet/snow possibly turning to rain in Western areas due to milder air assoicated with the weather front. There is also a risk of a period of freezing rain in places which will may lead to dangerous conditions.
This warning may be upgraded to Level 2 at any stage so please keep an eye on our page.
We will of course keep you updated on where the snowfall is and it's current track
We will also be posting some charts/data regarding this possible widespread snowfall event. Stay tuned.
The weather forecast (6:55pm) on the bbcni news forecast snow on Saturday morning to turn to rain in the afternoon. This is in line with other forecasts over the last 24 hours.
That warning you posted seems to be an updated forecast even though it was issued before the tv forecast was aired. I can only assume that the tv broadcast was pre-recorded and was out of date by the time it was broadcast.
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17 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:
Well this is going to be fun, 2 ECMs to look at every run!
At T216, similar themes - both models trying to break through heights to our south. The charts we're seeing at T144/T168 look like game over, but with a large area of heights stretching up to the NE, it's always a very close thing to bringing back cold from the east.Recently easterlies (e.g. 2013, 2018) have tended to be followed shortly after by more easterlies, so don't put the sledge away yet. (Actually I haven't got mine out yet, but it sounded nice to pretend )
Model overload!
There is already too many disagreements within suites between each run, never mind adding another model into the mix.
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Mid term GFS (06z) slowing onset of mild, ECM going for strong mild outlook. BBC monthly going for mild next week with fair possibility of cold coming back week after because of negative AO, with high pressure in the baltic region. Caveats being this is fairly broad brush and dependent upon orientation of blocking high.
Short term, both BBCNI & RTE going for snow Thursday coming into SW Ireland, not progressing as far as NI. Friday non descript but still cold north but mild south. Saturday morning rain SW, transient snow Ulster & NE Leinster turning back to rain in the afternoon. Very mild thereafter - looks like they are both following using ECM output.
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10 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
It's diagnosed by little squiggles in the line on the long wave patterns or shortwaves popping into the long wave pattern.
Thanks for that - every day is a learning day. Any chance of snow cover for you tonight?
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1 hour ago, Summer Snow said:
Yes just not enough instability despite decent upper air temps unfortunately.... lower thicknesses and instability in eastern Scotland and eastern England thus the heavier streamers there......last Friday when ME were warning of significant accumulations this week, the charts had that unstable air pushed right over us, but from Saturday it became apparent in the models that wasn't going to happen....disappointing.....Thursday's snow seems to be getting downgraded now too .....weaker than envisaged and prob won't reach some areas, then turn to rain Thursday night or Friday morning where it has snowed ......cursed we are ha
When you talk about unstable air, is there a way of directly measuring that, or, is it an indirect measure like humidity, pressure level / gradient? TIA
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2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:
That meteoceil chart i posted earlier does look complicated for sure.I think it shows every piece of the split northern arm.
If we look at the NW view at t 144 on the GFS it looks more like we are used to.We can see there is enough energy over the top of the ridge to keep a lid on it getting too far north.
The main thrust of the jet is across to the south but frustratingly we see that cut off energy to the north just where it stops further amplification.
Thats for the alternative chart and the explanation - i can now make sense of why the ridge doesn't build. Thanks
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2 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:
Heavy shower of snow here at the minute. Ground turning white quite quickly
Looks like there could some duration to that streamer, you may get lucky
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2 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
BBC NI weather going for 10c by Monday
I think we are too close for changes to be achieved for Thurs / Friday at this stage with a slow warm up occurring. I also believe we will get to the much milder temps as per BBC forecast but perhaps the arrival delayed to Tuesday / Wed.
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Just saw weather on RTE - breakdown of sorts, but very slow. Rain / sleet / snow mix Thurs / Fri. They didn't commit to further outlook beyond the weekend, but Sunday (4C) projected to be colder than Saturday (5C). I think general narrative has been established but details subject to change
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4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Yesterday 1 mile south of me had a decent 3cm covering, and north of me by about 2 miles had a decent 5 cm covering. I had some snow on the car roof this morning, that's all. I really am cursed! AT least it's cold enough to use my logs!
I think everyone in this forum is cursed - no one with any decent snow cover after all the hours put in here on netweather.
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18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple. This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.
Thanks for the information - i agree with your conclusions.
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1 hour ago, phil nw. said:
Well really by day 6 it looks a bit of a stalemate.Both gfs/ukmp show the block is not giving enough to let the Atlantic right into the UK.
It is more than likely the west will see something milder at least for a spell but a look at the gfs jet pattern at t144 shows the difficulty modeling is having in calculating the pathway forward.
The northern arm of the jet has no coherent pathway but does limited resistance to the ridge getting further north.The main energy in the jet is still running south so that Atlantic push remains quite indecisive up to there.
Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA
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5 hours ago, IDO said:
Looking at the T138 gefs the op sits in the middle and is similar to the mean with where the 0c isotherm sits:
There is a cluster like the UKMO which are more progressive and a cluster holding onto the best case scenario, and a cluster in support of the op. So as we were, a new signal and gfs is trying to resolve the forcing even at this range. As for what follows, a holding pattern looks the call, trough to the west -v- mid-lat HP to the east, UK caught in the middle?
Thanks for the update.
It's a pity the ensembles & clusters are not released at the same time as the operational model, as all being available together would provide a more rounded picture of probable ways forward (like your post above). Many people view the Operational only and make judgements on it alone and do not see the later released clusters / ensembles. I know the hardcore do view all the data, but many others like me do not. It would maybe help moderate some of the wild mood swings in here after each run.
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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
But quickly washed away?
If there is a possibility to extend the cold it would be brilliant, but if it is just related to a breakdown event i would be losing interest.
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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion
in Ireland Weather Discussion
Posted
I noticed my app is forecasting light snow for Belfast this evening. Has any met office or broadcaster mentioned this? Still waiting my first flake.