Cavehill Snow
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Everything posted by Cavehill Snow
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Went for walk with wife whilst still snowing - wind and small dry flakes swirling felt great but finished at lunchtime with only 3 or 4 cm. Slow thaw setting in - at least it hasn't rained. Not sure it was worth the forecasters hype, but still better than it not happening at all. Don't think i'll need the ruler looking at Sperrins photos.
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Model output discussion 10/02/21
Cavehill Snow replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts. Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these? -
The weather forecast (6:55pm) on the bbcni news forecast snow on Saturday morning to turn to rain in the afternoon. This is in line with other forecasts over the last 24 hours. That warning you posted seems to be an updated forecast even though it was issued before the tv forecast was aired. I can only assume that the tv broadcast was pre-recorded and was out of date by the time it was broadcast.
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Model output discussion 10/02/21
Cavehill Snow replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Model overload! There is already too many disagreements within suites between each run, never mind adding another model into the mix. -
Mid term GFS (06z) slowing onset of mild, ECM going for strong mild outlook. BBC monthly going for mild next week with fair possibility of cold coming back week after because of negative AO, with high pressure in the baltic region. Caveats being this is fairly broad brush and dependent upon orientation of blocking high. Short term, both BBCNI & RTE going for snow Thursday coming into SW Ireland, not progressing as far as NI. Friday non descript but still cold north but mild south. Saturday morning rain SW, transient snow Ulster & NE Leinster turning back to rain in the afternoon. Very mild thereafter - looks like they are both following using ECM output.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Cavehill Snow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thats for the alternative chart and the explanation - i can now make sense of why the ridge doesn't build. Thanks -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Cavehill Snow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks for the information - i agree with your conclusions. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Cavehill Snow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Cavehill Snow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks for the update. It's a pity the ensembles & clusters are not released at the same time as the operational model, as all being available together would provide a more rounded picture of probable ways forward (like your post above). Many people view the Operational only and make judgements on it alone and do not see the later released clusters / ensembles. I know the hardcore do view all the data, but many others like me do not. It would maybe help moderate some of the wild mood swings in here after each run.