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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. For all those still thinking the Scandi ridge will be more resilient than the models are predicting, well the trend over the last 24hrs says to me that ship has sailed. The ECM has been the main culprit in giving false hope of a more robust block to our north east. I seem to remember that it was guilty of exactly the same thing last winter. I lost count of how many times the ECM showed undercuts and pressure falling over Europe from 192hrs onwards only for it to never verify. I wonder why pressure remains so stubbornly high over Europe during our winters ?
  2. The two Nick's in tandem here. GFS p uncannily similar to ECM op tonight - food for thought!
  3. The ECM ensemble mean charts show the intensity of the vortex on the Canadian side weakening quite markedly towards the 10 day mark. Will be keeping a close eye on that one.
  4. Please let the ECM op be on to something here. I wish this for three reasons. Firstly, many of the classic cold spells are preceded by a period of blocked, anticyclonic weather. Secondly, the blocked scenario that the ECM is showing allows the cold to build and build to our east and north east. And last but not least, it goes against the Meto extended forecast for the next 2 to 3 weeks. If the met have got the signal wrong for the next couple of weeks then how can their winter thoughts be on the money?
  5. Yeah, see steve murr's post on previous page - post 1103. ECM 12z first to pick up this shortwave. Uncanny how they seem to pop up out of nowhere at just the wrong time!
  6. That's a fantastic way to explain the ECM tonight Nick. I find the wording in your posts very entertaining. I agree, the ECM looks messy post 144hrs.
  7. I totally agree. What I have noticed about the best cold spells in recent years is once the models pick up major blocking patterns - much like the ECM at present, they tend to increase in intensity with each run. That's when I know something interesting is around the corner and that is what I am looking for over the next couple of days - cmon winter 14/15
  8. The updated cpc ensemble means for the AO and NAO are much better than I was expecting going into the second half of Nov, especially the NAO which shows a clear trend to negative over the next couple of weeks.
  9. Just to add to my post - the 06z GFS Parallel shows exactly what I have explained above.
  10. After the last two ECM runs, I have noticed the control turns unsettled and not particularly cold. Trying to piece it all together, it looks as though there will be a cool easterly in a weeks time. We then see a push of very cold air in the Svalbard area push south into northern Scandinavia. This push doesn't make it to our shores as low pressure in the atlantic wins the race and brings in more unsettled weather. Great building blocks though in terms of very cold air building to our north east.
  11. Indeed, is the ECM having another moment ? We will know by the end of tomorrow. If this resembles the Dec 2012 ECM fiasco, we really do need to re evaluate our opinion of the ECM and it's accuracy post 6 days. I know one thing for sure - the ECM was not prone to wild swings so much pre 2012. The wild swings were confined to the GFS. Has ECM caught the disease over the last couple of years ? Or is it going to prove it's position as the best ranked model over the next couple of days ? These are the questions
  12. Absolutely, we need to see the other major players jumping on board over the next day or two. Looking at tonight's 12z GFS parallel and you may be forgiven for thinking that support has already started to some degree.
  13. I would also like to point out that tonight's 12z GFS parallel run showed quite a lot of similarities to tonight's 12z ECM. Interesting times!!
  14. It will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles and ensemble means later on. I must say the last 24 hours on Net weather have been more exciting than the whole of last winter put together
  15. Exactly what I was trying to get across. The ECM run tonight could not be any more different to the dross we endured last winter if it tried!
  16. I am guessing the lack of comments are to do with the not so tasty uppers. However, we should be rejoicing at these charts as I believe that if they come off, it will set the scene for a memorable winter to come for us cold/snow lovers.
  17. Still 10%? Looks like a change may be afoot but still too early to be certain.
  18. Haha! I was referring to the 144 & 168 charts. If you compare them with this mornings run, there is a lobe breaks away from the mother vortex so to speak hence making the vortex more spunky as BA would say!
  19. The 168hr chart confirms what I thought. That spin off low from the vortex over the pole is helping the vortex to fight back with a vengeance!!
  20. I am a little concerned about the lobe that spins off the vortex over the north pole though. That could scupper the cross polar heights.
  21. I must say that after the last 2 or 3 days output and not just this mornings ECM, 10% is very conservative, even by the mets standards. I would have placed it much higher than 10%.
  22. I must say that I am surprised the Meto are only giving it a 10% chance, especially when 00z ECM control run agreed with it's op run.
  23. Yes, too early for that shananigans! I want to see a wet and mildish Nov aka 2009
  24. Well, it's the old "if it can go wrong, it most probably will" feeling we all have about the UK winters! The OPI theory really has added a whole new dimension to this particular winter though - very intriguing.
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