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Everything posted by blizzard81
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Remember the stonking jma runs a week or so ago? I'll say no more
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From past experience, the gfs 12z is more reliable than it's 06z sister. I will reserve judgement though until tonight's ecm.
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That may be true but the difference on the ground for the UK is immense. Let's be honest - that's all that really counts.
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We've got no chance from here. That low to the west of Ireland is a true limpet. Seen it so many times before. I wasn't expecting this to be honest. How cruel this game can be.
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We should never trust the gfs 06 op and suite when it goes ultra amplified. It never verifies.
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Yep. The ecm is certainly more king when it comes to spotting less cold solutions unfortunately. The writing is on the wall for this winter.
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12z trends looking ominous. The gfs 12z op is looking very ecm op esq to say the least and I don't like the ukmo 144 chart. My optimism is waning again. Is it just going to be one of those winters I wonder? Had many of those in my life time.
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I think most on here are waiting for that grand set of 12z runs that always seem to cement a potent cold spell. Will it be today?
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Hard to disagree with anything you said there to be honest. We have been burnt so many times this season and for that matter many previous winters too. I still think we will be rewarded very soon though.
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And dancing on ice ha ha ha
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I know what you are saying but that low is a potential snow machine if it dives down towards the UK. I do feel that winter proper is about to start very soon.
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Think even Steve's exhausted this season lol.
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Sorry, I forgot to attach the ens to my last post. I have attached it now.
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Indeed. With regards to the ecm debilt ens, just look at that for just 4 days out. A high degree of uncertainty. Minus 7 to plus 8 at ground level - at just t96! Must be some easterlies in there.
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I agree. The icon was having none of it with regards to the easterly. Look at what it shows now at only 5 days out. Look at those uppers to our north east. I am a big believer in things balancing themselves out. Coldies have suffered immensely this season so far. I have a feeling things are going to tip the other way quite rapidly now. Fun times in the near future for the coldies.
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Either the ec46 is late or.....I'll say no more
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Incredibly frustrating. Many times I have looked at the Jan 47 archives and wondered how the same thing didn't happen then as the high built north.
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What I would give right now for half of what winter 78/79 gave
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The ec46 did exactly the same two or three years ago.
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Yep. I think all those of a cold persuasion should receive a medal for incredible patience this winter. It's been tortuous.
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a very encouraging sign. The updated fax chart for Tuesday is more amplified in the Atlantic than the previous two charts for the same day. Far sharper with the US low.