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Everything posted by blizzard81
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Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't get me wrong. I've seen a lot worse. I'm sure you will agree. However, not feeling the increase in momentum. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm a tad disappointed with the debilt ens -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep, like you I am looking forward to some nice, crisp dry days - well overdue. Oh! And of course some proper frosty nights. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is much more potential in this chart than most realise. Look at the kink in the isobars south of Iceland. If a low developed and zipped south east through the UK, it would open the flood gates to the brutal cold lurking just to our north east. Only problem is it's at day 10 so is obviously open to favourable or unfavourable adjustments. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have a feeling it will be more a case of the grand solar minimum that will be giving the one fingered salute to the vortex. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well we certainly know ecm still has it's age old problem of over amplification. Yesterday's 192hr chart compared to today's 168hr. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That makes for very grim viewing indeed and ties in with ecm and ukmo seasonals. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This has been the trend through today. It may change on tomorrow's runs but experience tells me otherwise. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
High pressure located over or very near to the UK in early December is quite a common feature over the years. Therefore I am expecting the models to be somewhere near the mark in the 8 - 10 day timeframe. -
Model output discussion - late November
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We need to keep grounded for a while yet. This maybe a little sobering but compare the 00z gfs mean at day 10 with the 06z op for the same time. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I much prefer todays majority cluster compared to yesterday's. -
Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I remember reading years ago, probably on TWO, that there was a link between cool, wet Novembers in the UK and the following winter being cold. This was especially true with the jet tracking south in November. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I keep wondering why the high pressure cell to the east of Iceland that consecutive gfs and ecm ops were very keen on has suddenly evaporated? -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be honest, I've seen much worse charts for the end of November. However, I know what you mean. We should be used to that by now though. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is going to be more of a struggle than I originally thought - if the ecm op is anywhere near the mark. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As others have just pointed out. This chart is jam packed full of potential. The high to the north east is in perfect position. The lows close to the UK don't phase, pressure is rising in all the right places. Great upgrades today. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Only one run of course but a great CFS December pressure anomaly for cold lovers. Massive positive (off the scale) pressure anomaly over northern Scandinavia. Scandi high for December anybody? -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ec46 might be interesting tonight. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's hope the models are onto a new trend. Nice looking charts for the end of November. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
blizzard81 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion