blizzard81

Johnp I agree. I think there's a lot of desperation creeping in here today.

sundog I think that might be a blessed relief for most of us lol. This season has been the most tortuous in the search for cold and snow since I started viewing the models 20 years ago. I think the fact that there has been prolonged brutal cold over Scandi that has refused to move our way has exacerbated the frustration.

josh-weather I wasn't saying that you were being harsh lol. I meant that I was also replying to another forum member by the name of Harsh Climate as he had a similar question to you.

damianslaw nothing unusual about the atlantic going quiet during Februaries. That is normal. This certainly doesn't preclude what most on here are wanting which is a meaningful cold spell.

josh-weather mainly because the all important Icelandic wedge modelled for the middle of next week is nowhere near as strong as originally modelled. This allows the energy in the atlantic to steer on a more northerly track with next to no resistance. Harsh - This is also in reply to your post.

Kasim Awan the trend north, if anything, will shift further north now. This is a Scotland affair and probably northern Scotland at that.

My definition of a downgrade - looking at a gfs 06z op at 300 hours.

Met4Cast Yep, I totally agree. Any 'real' potential has been watered down now for the last 24 hours. Unfortunately that trend has continued this morning.

MJB Auntie beeb a bit behind the curve there.

Don Yet again the last carrot dangled by the pub run - and that's just for the north lol. That arctic high let us down yet again. It didn't ridge down enough to create the Icelandic wedge. The wedge that was absolutely crucial for a sustained cold spell. It would have led to the relentless atlantic onslaught being diverted on a much more southerly track, thus heights lowering considerably over Iberia and southern Europe as a whole. Instead we have a half baked solution again. This leads to the atlantic ridge heading towards us, instead of Greenland. Hence the Exeter update mentioning high pressure over the UK. It's another big let down I feel. Even the EC46 has weakened that signal significantly over the last 24 hours. I personally think it's game up for this winter. March is too late, even up here. I've no interest in slushy mess and puddles.

Bartlett High saving on grit

Typical pub run shinannigans. Surely most on here will know this.

I agree. The winter bar is so much lower these days. I get why people do it - It's a coping mechanism.

Harsh Climate I must have slept through those 3 years ago. Either that or they were very temporary affairs.

It all looks very wishy washy to me. Lame and limp. There's been no appetite from the models today to home in on a semi-decent cold spell, let alone a decent one. All very underwhelming in my eyes. Too much energy in the atlantic and systems not tracking southerly enough. That's the biggest problem here. Also, remember a couple of days ago when quite a few of the model runs were gunning for that all important Icelandic wedge? It's nowhere to be seen now as we hone into the reliable. This is why we are now seeing the downgrades. Whether some want to admit that or not.

northwestsnow I've got to say I'm with you mate. Getting that sinking feeling now. Trouble is, us long suffering long timers on this forum can sniff downgrades from a mile away. We've seen it that often lol. When the GEM is consistently showing the colder solution then it just adds to my doubt I'm afraid.

Northwestsnow is correct - The update is a clear downgrade but I suspect it could just be a case of clumsily worded on the part of Exeter. Unlike the previous updates, no reference now to the possibility of a clash of the atlantic low with the cold air and hence bringing wintry weather to those lucky enough to be on the boundary. This has disappeared from the update.

Heights over southern Europe aren't as low on the latest EC46 throughout so that's a downgrade imo. We need something at least semi-special to rescue this uneventful winter. The lessening of the lower heights to our south during Feb does not aid our cause.

Lukesluckybunch I agree. All very humpy and bumpy. I've noticed this happens alot these days. No clean evolution and advection of cold air like we used to see in similar circumstances.

northwestsnow Nah! Just be selfish and greedy. It's much more fun

northwestsnow This is exactly what we need to be seeing from now onwards as a trend. It's now or never.

Uncertainty That really is spooky Mr Uncertainty. You posted that just as I was looking at the end of the gfs 12z run which shows this. Mid Feb is looking increasingly exciting.

feb1991blizzard lovin that one.... Feb 91esq....I suspect you liked that spell

Metwatch which is exactly what we want. It's not like the mid Jan experience though. It should lead to consistently low heights over southern Europe and therefore a more coherent cold spell for the UK.

The pub run for some reason wants to blow up a pv lobe over Greenland that wasn't there at all on the 12z run.....thats good news imo. Expect upgrades in the morning.