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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. This is going to be more of a struggle than I originally thought - if the ecm op is anywhere near the mark.
  2. That's the crucial area. The trend through the day has been a rise in pressure in this vicinity.
  3. As others have just pointed out. This chart is jam packed full of potential. The high to the north east is in perfect position. The lows close to the UK don't phase, pressure is rising in all the right places. Great upgrades today.
  4. Only one run of course but a great CFS December pressure anomaly for cold lovers. Massive positive (off the scale) pressure anomaly over northern Scandinavia. Scandi high for December anybody?
  5. Let's hope the models are onto a new trend. Nice looking charts for the end of November.
  6. However, that does seem to tie in with the latest extended from Exeter.
  7. A very intruiging battle seems to have commenced. We have some very positive (from a cold perspective) developments in the short to mid term. However, the long term seasonal models are seemingly digging their heels in with their positive nao outlook. I feel a mix of tension and excitement!
  8. Just to illustrate how the tpv over north east Canada was over estimated. The ecm day 10 chart from the Friday 12z for 11th November compared to today's day 7 chart for the same date.
  9. Ecm control run for debilt goes cold (and possibly snowy?) towards the end
  10. The negative tilting trough is always a promising sign for developments down the line imo.
  11. A healthy looking 10 day mean from ecm for those of a cold persuasion.
  12. Liking the way the low stalls in our vicinity with the high getting sucked back into the Atlantic instead of meandering into Iberia. Reminds me of of early Nov 2009 and 1962.
  13. Three of the most severe winter spells of the last century. Moral of the story? The PV doesn't have to be obliterated to kingdom come.
  14. We are certainly due a decent December cold spell. I wouldn't be surprised to see one this year. Just basing this on the law of averages, nothing scientific at all.
  15. Does anyone know what phase sun cycle we were in from 1988 to 1990? Were we in solar max or solar min?
  16. That's very interesting. Thank you for that info. I for one am a big believer in solar minimum affecting our winter weather - in a nice cold, snowy way :)
  17. Ecm looking very similar to early October 1981. I'll say no more :)
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