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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. I remember countless shortwaves over the years unfortunately
  2. Ha ha ha. Anybody else think the gfs is struggling?
  3. They certainly have been over amplifying. Nothing new as that happens every year. Ecm is the main culprit but a couple of gfs op runs have been guilty as well.
  4. A sobering thought but based on the model runs of the last 24 hours, I have to agree.
  5. Ha ha . That gfs run seems to go against the latest AO forecast!
  6. It happens every year. The arctic high is over egged in the medium to long term. Lost count over the years how many times the arctic high is progged to ridge down in our vicinity but generally only makes it as far as Svalbard.
  7. Better ecm ext ens for cold. Don't like the gfs 06z op. Let's hope it's as wrong as when it shows winter nirvana charts.
  8. Don't get me wrong. I've seen a lot worse. I'm sure you will agree. However, not feeling the increase in momentum.
  9. Yep, like you I am looking forward to some nice, crisp dry days - well overdue. Oh! And of course some proper frosty nights.
  10. There is much more potential in this chart than most realise. Look at the kink in the isobars south of Iceland. If a low developed and zipped south east through the UK, it would open the flood gates to the brutal cold lurking just to our north east. Only problem is it's at day 10 so is obviously open to favourable or unfavourable adjustments.
  11. I have a feeling it will be more a case of the grand solar minimum that will be giving the one fingered salute to the vortex.
  12. Well we certainly know ecm still has it's age old problem of over amplification. Yesterday's 192hr chart compared to today's 168hr.
  13. That makes for very grim viewing indeed and ties in with ecm and ukmo seasonals.
  14. This has been the trend through today. It may change on tomorrow's runs but experience tells me otherwise.
  15. High pressure located over or very near to the UK in early December is quite a common feature over the years. Therefore I am expecting the models to be somewhere near the mark in the 8 - 10 day timeframe.
  16. We need to keep grounded for a while yet. This maybe a little sobering but compare the 00z gfs mean at day 10 with the 06z op for the same time.
  17. I much prefer todays majority cluster compared to yesterday's.
  18. I remember reading years ago, probably on TWO, that there was a link between cool, wet Novembers in the UK and the following winter being cold. This was especially true with the jet tracking south in November.
  19. I keep wondering why the high pressure cell to the east of Iceland that consecutive gfs and ecm ops were very keen on has suddenly evaporated?
  20. Those dreaded heights building over Iberia. Looks like glossea seasonal!
  21. To be honest, I've seen much worse charts for the end of November. However, I know what you mean. We should be used to that by now though.
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