[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Gowon I think that's it in a nutshell. Expect the unexpected. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Interesting developments. Always seems to be the 12z runs. Ukmo and gfs control as examples. They want to raise pressure to our north west at short notice. The EC46, after touting this for what seems an eternity, might yet have it's day after all lol. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Harsh Climate Indeed mate. It started with the much improved ecm 06z control run this morning and that trend has continued across the main models this evening. We really needed this after the dire morning runs, especially gfs. We have something to build upon now

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Remember that gut wrenching gfs 00z run this morning? Well, we've come a long way in 12 hours. Good trends so far on the 12z runs. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Much better ecm o6z at T144. Scandi high much better positioned and orientated to advect proper cold our way. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 minus10 Yep. Just that bit too much energy in the atlantic this winter. This goes down as a very wet and stormy winter in my book. These rarely deliver the cold goods. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole I could be wrong but the low to the north at 117hrs looks like it spawns just east/north east of Iceland at circa 105hrs. Tbh mate, the more I look at the output for the next 72 to 96 hours time period, the more convinced I become of some major twists and turns at very short notice and dare I say it...... In our favour!

 Sweatyman Indeed mate. Very common. Also just off the coast of Norway is another favourite lol. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

If that low just to the south of Iceland could dive south eastwards, that really could help that Siberian beast come out of it's shell and venture west. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Icon 'looked' like it was an improvement then it let go unfortunately. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole Icon moving more towards what one would expect?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Singularity I wonder what? 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Frigid I wonder what has caused this sudden turnaround?

[Model banter and emotions]

 Don Yep, everything getting delayed again and again. The writing is on the wall I fear. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Relying on a huge Siberian High to retrogress westwards does wonders for the frustration levels. I've been known to call it the shyest beast there is. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex It's something I've noticed over the last 15 years - the limpet UK low that seems to stick like ****. I'll say glue on this ocassion. Back in the 80's that front on Thursday would have slid on it's axis and veered south/south eastwards into Europe bring in frigid easterlies. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Nick123 It's neither brave or foolish. Dramatic words for something that just isn't dramatic. You are misconstruing my comment by making it look like I somehow 'disrespect' the professionals. Way off the mark - The gist of my post is the fact that the professionals can only work from the latest data they have at their disposal. So, say at any given time when they record their forecast, the next set of model suites are already rolling. If the ones rolling turn out to be a significant change from previous suites then their present forecast is already out of date. Yes, the suites may revert back again but the fact remains, they are always playing catch up. That's not a criticism as there's absolutely no way of combating that - unless they invent a time machine. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 CoventryWeather But they have all now converged on a rotund limpet low that sticks to us like...... Very unlikely for any of the models to revert back now to a more oval and disrupted low - even for the biggest optimists. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER Yep. As I've just explained in the Yorkshire thread, most of us on here are ahead of the TV/Meto forecasts as they are using old data. We are always looking at the fresh, up to date data so we are always ahead. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 The PIT Yep, it happens a lot. Many people on here are ahead of the meto forecasts as we are looking at data that has just come out. Thursday looks like a high ground affair to me. Slushy mess for most I feel. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 mulzy Agreed. Everything put on the back burner again.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy I didn't like the way it was going long before that. It's a terrible run BA.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

No no no. Please.... No. This would be mind numbingly boring. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy Neither - try uncle barty instead. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch Yep, there just wasn't ever enough forcing from the north to make that incoming atlantic become a squashed boiled egg. It was always going to turn into a bowling ball and go north. Terribly modelled by the ukmo and ecm. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

You've got to laugh or you'll cry...... Iberian high building now