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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. Well, the ecm certainly got it's thongs on tonight
  2. Classic late 70's set up. North East US gets brutal cold but we also get rich pickings too.
  3. Gfs 18z run quite consistent with last night's run.
  4. This is what happened after Christmas in 1913 - The last grand solar minimum year closest to this year's. Just putting it out there.
  5. I would certainly bank this run for the festive week.
  6. Not surprised by that when you look at the ecm debilt ext ens. You can see a clear split between cold solutions and milder solutions from day 11 onwards. This clear split will mix out any mean/anomaly charts for that period. The next 2 to 3 days will resolve whether the cold solutions gain favour or the mild ones do.
  7. Those lovely orange colours to our north west on those clusters are a thing of beauty.
  8. Pretty much how GP predicted in his post a couple of days ago. I suppose we better be prepared for much more rain to come.
  9. That's all well and good but as long as these keep spawning off the eastern seaboard, we will be waiting a looooong time.
  10. I hope you are right. However, there are some crucial differences. The stark one being over north eastern Canada. Totally blocked in 2013. Not so this time unfortunately.
  11. Big problem - the Euro high is slipping south east when we want it to be stretching north west to link arms with the arctic high. As a result, there is nothing to stop the atlantic low and if there was a next frame, I would expect it to be right on our door step unfortunately.
  12. Doesn't look like it's going to make it on this run but you wouldn't expect the pub run at plus 8 days to be that accurate
  13. Nice updates today. AO tanking and NAO going in the right direction as well.
  14. Yep. We need the raising heights from day 8 to be more in our vicinity as opposed to our south east. There is time for very favourable adjustments. Here's hoping.
  15. Anybody else struck by how sluggish/stagnant things become at approx days 8 and 9? I just get a feeling this could be a precursor to a major pattern change.
  16. Trying to remain optimistic but not easy. I will say though that I have see much worse offerings in December's past. Many Decembers have been bartlet dominated bringing the never ending south westerly train. This December is not one of those.
  17. This morning's 00z ecm day 10 mean compared to tonight's 12z day 10 mean. What's happened to the PV?
  18. Ok, I think we all need a silver lining tonight and this is the best I could come up with. First chart is ecm debilt ens from this morning days 12 to 15. Second chart is the updated ecm debilt from tonight's 12z run for the same days. You can clearly see colder clustering on tonight's run. Chins up!
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