[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Some on here 'may' regret throwing in the towel over the last day or so. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The more favourable long term mean creeping back in. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Why are the gfs ens on meteociel so much slower at coming out now compared to years ago? Crazy. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Gfs 06z control showing good continuity following on from the 00z control run. 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 MJB Indeed. I'm old enough to remember all the 80's winters and just about the back end of the 70's. People go on about the classics in the late 70's and through the 80's. However, looking at the records, the winters of the 70's were non events up until about 1977. And for the 80's, yes there was 81/82, early 84 and early 85, Jan 87. Of course a great decade for winters but what about 80/81, 82/83, 87/88, 88/89 and 89/90? A very big chunk of the 80's there. They were meh! Very uneventful indeed. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Penrith Snow Ha ha ha Indeed mate  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Cambrian I do like your positivity and enthusiasm mate . I'm still not convinced the modelling is seeing all the pieces here. Or rather - they are seeing all the pieces but just don't know where they are supposed to fit. A little like an amateur playing with a jigsaw puzzle. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

This always happens. An erroneous Ecm op run. It will be back on track tomorrow. Ecm op and control in cluster 4 says it all. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

As others have already mentioned this morning, good continuity from ecm and ukmo. In fact ecm has us BACK IN THE GAME! this time next week. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Icon follows the trend of the ukmo and ecm 12z runs with less influence from the dreaded bloated Euro high at day 5 compared to it's previous run. Also the beginning of the all important pressure rise to our north west. Not there on the previous run. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy Week 2 modelling this winter has been dire anyway. Plus the positive changes on the 12z runs this evening happen well within week 1.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy I've never rated the control run tbh

The ecm 10 day mean has much colder uppers to our north east compared to this morning's. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 bluearmy Ukmo and ecm are very similar at days 6 and 7 though. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Met4Cast Glass half empty then?  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Chesil View Nothing is guaranteed of course. However, this will be the best chance we have of bagging one this winter imo. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Just about the best ecm op run of the season imo. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 TEITS Indeed. It's as if the models knew the direction of travel and the end result but didn't quite know which way to go in order to achieve it. If that makes sense? 

 Lukesluckybunch Ha ha I was thinking exactly the same thing mate.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Incredible output this evening. This is how it all starts imo - at day 3. Just look at that brilliant negatively tilted troughing over the UK. Stretched beautifully and pulled down into Europe. Without this, I don't think we would be seeing that sudden height rise to our north west at day 6. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ice Day incredibly similar... And in a good way. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I like this...... I like it alot. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch Weird but good. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

When I see such a huge difference for the better at 6 days out I get visions of Darren Bett being dragged off the levers of the model controls. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Singularity Very interesting now - simply because the changes are at relatively short notice. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Singularity Yep ecm will be fascinating now. Yes, this winter has been the continual carrot dangler. I shouldn't moan though. I've been luckier than most. This is my view outside before it gets washed away and it's the fifth time I've seen snow fall this winter - which sadly is more than usual. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Singularity It really is a big change at such short notice.