[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Following on from that tweet. To try and pin down the track of any sliders at this timeframe will be fruitless as I am sure most of us are aware. The boundaries between snow and rain will not be known until each slider occurs. Some will be happy, others less so, but that’s what makes the upcoming weeks more fascinating in terms of model watching. After seeing an SSW and predicted propagation I love this bit of watching everything falling in or out of place tropospherically.

The chase is as much fun as the outcome!

Because of the ooomph of the cold surge prior to any slider, coupled with the likely angle of this particular attack, I think marginality will be less of an issue this time compared to most previous examples. If the slider happens, it will be snow for most.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I think too many are hoping for the lovely clean Greenland height rise solution. This looks very unlikely. It's going to be a little messy. The upside to this is that many more of us are likely to see substantial snowfall by the end of January. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Only if it’s the same ........I can’t see the other models all being in the same place at day 10! 

I think too much fuss is being made about the ecm run. The evolution and end result is not too different to the gfs and gfsp - heights rising over the northern scandi region in the latter stages. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Concerning that yesterday seemed to be firming up on proper cold setting in days 11 to 13 but today we are starting to see this being delayed again. Never a good sign. 

[Model banter returns]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just going back to the 46, the stronger greeny high anoms are showing for post 28th ...... so don’t expect them to be showing on the back end gfs ops and gefs for a few more days yet  ( if it’s right that is) 

Ha, I think the snow will arrive just in time for Christmas

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Just now, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM individual ensembles tonight - initially bad news, but then better news. Not fantastic for cold between D11 and D13 (only 10-20% of members with realistic potential for cold, let alone snow). But quick changes at D14/D15 (so 20th/21st January), with a sharp increase in the members showing heights building to the W, NW and N (maybe 40% of members), and a general downturn on troughing in the Atlantic.

Yep. Just looked at debilt extended and looks promising. Much better than this morning's. Been here before though. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

I for one am very glad about the realistic posts on here tonight. The output is poor. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Just to sum up the downgrades this past 24 hours.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

It's not the chase for cold. It's the wild goose chase lol

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Just now, Mucka said:

Disagree with the positivity over the UKMO chart, here it is compared to GFSp 00z (pretty similar)

All that can happen from there is a flattening of the ridge as all the energy is going over the top between Iceland and Greenland, you can already see the next low to SW of Greenland.

Now if you wanted to be ultra optimistic and call for he pattern to be backed West from there and the Icelandic low (at 120) to blow up and phase further West with the Scandi trough with more amplification behind then we might be on to something but that is not what that UKMO chart shows unfortunately.

When the 168 comes out it will show the ridge flattening with LP near Iceland

 

I agree. It sums up the model output today when some big up that day 6 ukmo chart. The bar is being set lower and lower. We need some Monday morning upgrades.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not at all, if they always hover around 5c, how come that mean goes from 10c to about 3c start to finish ? The other members , if you pay attention to the graph has a tight cluster that goes noticeably colder at the end. That’s quite significant.

 

 

The bar is set very low due to the starting point. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes that would be great to get a decent freeze going but I think most on here would be happy to see a few snow flurries as things stand right now.

It has been an absolutely dismal winter thus far. Not one flake yet. Feels very late 90's unfortunately. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Oh ok then , same rubbish each night it’s getting boring mate 

if it’s that bad why not just log off and forget about it 

You have a problem with people saying it how it is. Those ensembles are mediocre, end of

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

These ecm ens look very tasty indeed towards the end!

Sorry but that mean always hovers around plus 5. Just not good enough by a long stretch. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Absolute crap gfs para 18z. Sums up this winter. Promised so much but delivers nothing. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Everyone wants 2009 or 2010 again - simple fact is those where 1/100 years winters. I suspect if you came back in 30 days time this post wouldn't ring true.

I do hope you are correct. I am in my mid forties and most of the best winters I have experienced came before I reached 20. Apart from 09/10, the winters since Feb 91 have been absolutely dire. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Not a bad fax chart for the south east contingent. Much better ecm ext ens tonight. Let's hope that trend continues tomorrow. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure it’s an upgrade on the last run but the 10 day ECM mean looks pretty good, another day or 2 and could be very good. Was hoping weekend 12/13th would be the start If something but just too early I think. 

Looks to be a downgrade on this morning's 10 day mean. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Fair enough, however the difference this time is unlike previously, the SSWE has actually taken place. so it’s now pretty simple, we will either benefit from it (form horse) or we won’t. What if’s and when’s of the SSW are over, it’s action stations now! 

Got our ticket ? lets hope we picked a winner  

Indeed. That's the best thing about this now. The waiting will soon be over - for good or bad!

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Was tongue in cheek and you are of course entitled to your opinion

Moving on, we seem to have pretty good agreement at +96 just small differences really!

certainly a cold second half of the week is odds on! it’s what happens thereafter that’s got my attention! 

Believe me, I haven't given up hope. Just not liking the "medium" term trends. The "longer" term trends look more promising. The problem is, all winter long the longer terms trends have looked very good. They just haven't counted down at all. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But what we don't see every winter, is the very real prospect of a shattered PV, and all that that entails?

I may well be wrong of course and believe me I hope I am. We just need to bear in mind all the past ssw events that didn't deliver. I remember the late 90's being mentioned a lot a few weeks ago. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

You should take up meteorology Blizzard, you seem to know exactly how everything’s going to plan out

Silly post there Karlos as I was talking about past events. Anyway, we all have our opinions. And that's exactly what I am expressing. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes agree-

But I think in the midterm the blocking will be underestimated ( but as you say it wont be some transformation between 6-10 ) just more steering SE...

Im liking that deep deep polar low at 144- exploding cold SE into Scandi is just the ticket...

We see that very same deep polar low steering into scandi every winter which then just infiltrates eastern Europe and dilutes as it goes south. End result? We don't get a sniff!

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

come back in the middle of next week and tell me that.

I admire your confidence. Just look at those debilt ensembles from this morning. It really doesn't inspire much confidence in anything cold. Everything is just being put further and further back. We have been here so many times before. Just to clarify, a couple of wet snow events will just not cut the mustard after the bore fest we have had to endure this winter.