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blizzard81

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Posts posted by blizzard81


  1. 6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Trough digging down across NE/central Europe and Atlantic ridge building north by day 10 got support from 00z GEFS mean though

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.3b05e179937084b900b7b098eab61eae.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.fa78b480f038b5716c73a620b69bd238.png

    And reasonable support from members in the stamps, though variations between NWly and Nly.

    stamps.thumb.png.d18030edb8592806b90112d841b0759b.png

    Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9. 


  2. 55 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour. 

    Voilà - Never give up hope!

    Screenshot_20200104-185759.png


  3. Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour. 


  4. 58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Happy New Year all!

    Flicked through the 51 ECM ensembles - by 14th January, it's generally high pressure to the SE and low pressure to the NW - but some tantalising alternatives - some runs bring the Euro high close enough to perhaps make the SE corner colder - and as many as 20% of runs threaten a Scandi High. To be continued in 2020!!!

    Thanks for the info. I noticed debilt went cold later on. I guess the control run was one of the scandi highs? 


  5. 16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    In reality I am neither, but posting on here usually requires or encourages bias of one sort or another!  But I had just posted in another thread that I reckoned that the only way out of this mess was via the stratosphere, a SSW, so to see a perfectly circular strat vortex at the outreach of the GFS pub run, well it doesn't fill me with confidence...

    Understood 🙂


  6. 5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    And still there this evening,there does seem to be a lot of scatter just after the 27th(that's only 4-5 days away),crazy!

    temps,dew points and wind direction

    1130959259_eps_pluim_tt_06260(2).thumb.png.eb435459a74ce59d5cf16510f826e7ad.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.ec170c7ca083b8e8db57e0f099e0d7bd.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.80d300278666c68da168f35dfdcbd9c6.png

    i will give it until tomorrow to see how this develops or not

    there isn't that much to talk about at the moment in regards to cold so i am signing out for a few days to do some late Chrimbo shopping tomorrow so...

    ro.jpg.9fac4452c1f037edd23ecdfd0078f8ad.jpgi wish everyone a merry Chrismas.    download.jpg.3930bcb5848ae0cdeef7b8352f556316.jpg

                                                                                   banner-1.thumb.gif.37ea8bbbbb0f8f594f03f4a6161c9c54.gif

    I'm glad I'm not the only one who is seeing this. Thought I had gone loopy 😂. Good luck with the last minute shopping and a very merry Christmas to you too 🙂

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