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blizzard81

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  1. This seems to go totally against the nino signal of Atlantic trough and scandi heights. Instead we have Atlantic ridge and pressure falling over scandi.
  2. Maybe things are not going as planned because it is too early for the el nino forcing in our neck of the woods. Even when it gets to full steam, most of the forecasts show a weak el nino this coming winter.
  3. Indeed, good spot. So many dynamics in play at any given moment. I love extremes in weather but it is essential not to let our preferences blind us to reality. Both the gfs and ecm ensembles point to quite a marked cool down for the UK . They may both be wrong, they could be right. I personally don't care that much now as I am absolutely more than satisfied with what this summer has brought to these shores. It has been magnificent. Remember where we are located on the edge of the northern Atlantic. It really isn't supposed to be this way so I really hope people have made the most of it.
  4. Mmm, one could also say they are quite similar. For example, for each of those charts, my eyes are always looking north west. Very hard to argue against a cooler, less settled theme from next Thursday for at least a couple of days. From where we go from there depends on the strength of any azores ridging.
  5. The 12z gfs ens carrying on with the cool down baton as we go into the second week of August.
  6. Gfs and ukmo now moving towards ecm. Warming up over the next few days, then a steady cool down. Azores then ridging in. After that? Who knows?
  7. Not saying it won't happen but it's got to be said that the gfs 06z has a reputation, shall we say, of wanting to entertain with the extreme possibilities. It does the same in winter with it's almighty cold teases.
  8. Many thanks, as always for posting these mwb. Some uncertainty as you say but it's got to be said that the clear majority have the scandi trough and ridging to our west. This would result in a marked cool down as we enter the second third of August. Those wise words of Tamara appealing to all not to take each suite as gospel are resonant in my ears. However, it is very notable that the gfs ens agree with this marked cool down so it would be reasonable to suggest that both ecm and gfs are barking up the right tree.
  9. I personally can't see a major plume affecting the UK (bar the south east) in the next week. A little like the weekend just gone, the Icelandic low is exerting too much influence in our neck of the woods to prevent any major plume engulfing the UK. An incredible summer thus far. Persistent cloud has been troublesome this week though.
  10. I should have made clear that the disappointing aspect was in relation to it's previous few runs. All relative of course - like everything else in life.
  11. I hope so too but even the mean didn't look as bullish as the previous few runs.
  12. I wouldn't bother trying to split hairs on this one. The Atlantic is breaking through this weekend. Our real interest now is to get that azores ridge up as soon as possible into the middle of next week without further delay. The ecm op tonight seems interested in that word - delay!
  13. The ecm run was disappointing. Our old winter foe - the Icelandic low is being a right pain in the backside! In addition to this, pressure looks more slack at the end of the run compared to the previous few runs. This would lead to summer longevity issues. Can you tell my hols start soon?
  14. You can't deny the trend though. My best estimate is certainly more changeable/unsettled as we head towards August but at least it won't be cool.
  15. Very blocked summer thus far. No coincidence that we are now up to 23 days on the trot of zero sun spots. You have to go back to 2009 for a longer spotless run. Just as solar minimum helps accentuate blocked patterns in winter, it seems the same could be said for summer patterns.
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