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blizzard81

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blizzard81 last won the day on November 3 2018

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    Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

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  1. The updated 120hr fax chart may just bring the dream. It doesn't go with the ukmo 120hr or ecm 120hr charts. It stalls much more. I'm hoping that the human input will be highly invaluable in this situation and the computers struggle.
  2. The argument that models underestimate cold blocks does have some truth to it. On the flip side, I recall many times when the models sweep them aside and prove 100% correct. The trend yesterday was to almost cancel out a 'true' beast visiting our shores in around 7 days but kept us in a cold 'holding' pattern. This morning unfortunately they have stepped back further and taken away the cold holding pattern. Need to see what the other runs show as the day progresses before totally giving up the ghost.
  3. Cheers matey. I generally use rain today but will now have a look on met weather radar
  4. Thanks Kasim. Where does orographic precipitation come into this for those like me on the eastern side of the pennines? From past experience, it's very difficult for us not to have a good dumping in situations like this.
  5. Are you referring to the clump in the north sea to the east of Hull?
  6. In the meantime, the gfs ops keep on giving. Such fantastic output at the moment.
  7. Great update. I also like the fact that they mention the warning area has been expanded more westwards through northern England. This means they expect snow to penetrate right across to the west. Fab news.
  8. Just turned very sleety as opposed to 95% rain in the last half hour.
  9. The gfs 06z control is an absolute humdinger! And look what awaits to our east.
  10. ECM got a good handle on things in the 5 to 6 day period on this run but its performance this winter post day 6 is woeful. In fact that goes for the last 2 or 3 years as well. Not as good as it used to be in the long 7 to 10 day range.
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