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blizzard81 last won the day on November 3 2018

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    Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

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  1. Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9.
  2. We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.
  3. Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical.
  4. Because we see a transition from quite a zonal 6 - 10 chart (see attached) to a much drier 8 - 14 day chart which also gives more chance and indeed hope of a scandi high forming. Please note the words 'chance' and 'hope'.
  5. About time one of these cold blue control runs came off.
  6. Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour.
  7. As others have mentioned. Miserable runs this morning. Like previous mild winters, any forecast amplification is rapidly watered down.
  8. Thanks for the info. I noticed debilt went cold later on. I guess the control run was one of the scandi highs?
  9. That's the best news I have heard all day. Many of the potent cold spells of yesteryear were preceded by exceptional mild spells. Jan 1947 being just one example.
  10. A very encouraging start to the day. We haven't been able to say that for a while have we? A lovely seasonal ecm op and looks like the control run is similar. Some positive news from some of the more learned members just now so let's see if momentum can build from here for the coldies.
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