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  1. The CFS has a very strong negative zonal wind bias, and November SSW's are as rare as hens teeth. Honestly not worth looking at IMO
  2. I wouldnt mind it to be honest, some rain in between the warmth is perfect for growing plants!
  3. Cracking outlook! Lots of warmth and sunshine on the way next week, hopefully the end of the desperate snow chasing for the season! High pressure looks close by for the bulk of April. Enjoy sensibly all and stay safe ?
  4. Another typical highly over amplified chart from the GEM. Probably see some Polar Maritime in the mix to end the month, capping off an absolutely woeful winter. All eyes on how the final warming will develop!
  5. Morning all! Things going as expected really! Was never any real support for a bitter Northerly. High pressure in charge until the 24th, the a north westerly flow at times taking us into February. Good for hills in the North but little signal to suggest widely snow conducive air.
  6. Morning all. I think a broad North westerly flow is likely for the last 5 days or so of the month, with just a chance that we can squeeze some cold enough air to give some wintryness away from hills. Best case would be a good toppler, little sign of any high lat blocking ?
  7. Excellent 6z with high pressure firmly in charge! Builds in from the 18th and should last a week ?
  8. A crushing morning for cold fans. Northerly has collapsed like a Jenga tower in an earthquake. High pressure close by is the favoured outcome, with hopefully some clear skies so frost/fog are on offer ?
  9. It is that simple though. People do need to be realistic, the amount of hype on here at times has been laughable! Sure we could end up with a very cold northerly, but little point in getting excited until it is much closer in, our experience tells us the majority of times a big northerly is modelled it is less amplified and further east in reality, fingers are very much crossed for something but at the moment it is a lower likelihood ?
  10. ECM flatter and further east, hence nothing of note. No surprise, this happens 99 times out of 100, of course, could still change back, but people need to be realistic
  11. Experience tells us that the ECM evolution happens 1 time out of a hundred, this is the reality. Currently a potent northerly is a low likelihood, let's see in the coming days if we can strengthen the signal or whether it will wain which is what happens the vast majority of times. I don't think I've posted since early December as there has been no signal for anything cold since the polar maritime around the 12th, this is the reality! Let's watch and wait ?
  12. Who would of thought it? Lol. As a result of being better upstream we get to this, trough needs to trickle east to allow the floodgates to open
  13. Slightly flatter in the Atlantic early doors, but more amplified through the states into the Arctic, so should be a slightly better ridge
  14. Not much point looking further when the differences are so early, if the GFS has got it right at day 5 then we are pretty game on, can it trump the UKMO at that range? I would be surprised if it is as flat as the UKMO though, there should be some amplification. Onto ECM!
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