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  1. I'd rather there was little there until October, as the more there before then means there is less scope for larger gains. Snow cover is obviously linked with the pressure patterns, that's what is worth watching as we head through October. Be interesting to see how much blocking there is over the Taymyr peninsular and the barents/kara seas through October as Mr Murr has alluded too.
  2. Correct me if i'm wrong but the SAI correlation if for the last week of Sept at the earliest no?
  3. It seems that the GFS has been reading from Tamara's script! Scuero ridge building ahead of an Atlantic trough. Something to watch
  4. The clusters give context to the mean
  5. Christ give everyone a minute to enjoy their passion. The majority knows the caveats but this is what some of us stupid cold fans live for! Cmon....
  6. coldwinter

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Remember that is 850's and by the end the OP's uppers were watered down
  7. The amount of disrespect on here for people who actually try and understand and analyse the atmosphere and how what is happening in the atmosphere at the time is going to effect the northern hemisphere going forward makes me wonder why the likes of GP bother posting on here at all.
  8. Further east in FI I think he means
  9. Looks like it has another SSW on this run too around similar time frame, a sizeable warming right at the top of the strat near the end too!
  10. coldwinter

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The signal on the EPS anomalies for a atlantic/Greenie high Is right at the top of the scale. if anything, its getting stronger than the last few EPS!
  11. coldwinter

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Interesting, the research of Wenjun Zhang however found a correlation between an eastern pacific based La nina with a negative NAO. And central based with a +VE NAO. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf
  12. coldwinter

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Isnt that the GFS from last night?
  13. coldwinter

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    You don’t need to explain. I’m just not sure what adding ‘The writing is on the wall for December’ adds either.