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  1. Yep, be interesting to see if they continue to show that, higher chance of unsetlled early Dec, but then possible downwelling in time for Christmas. Interesting stuff, so many things going on this winter!
  2. Its going to be another stonker in FI. Its fine margins getting the shortwaves to behave and ensuring enough amplification to link the siberian high with the Atlantic high
  3. Worth pointing out though that 09 had a very warm strat through Nov with very low zonal winds, but yes, crucial to see the blocking in the trop continuing to stop the strong strat PV from ruling the pattern, that's what we are all watching!
  4. It really isnt uncommon to have blocking around the arctic towards the end of October. Long way off winter yet, what happens in the next 6 weeks in the strat is what we want to watch, amongst everything else.
  5. Well i would say SST's are pointing to a weak -VE NAO but you have to remember that SST's are one piece of one very big and complex puzzle, it's never as simple as A=B, and the seasonals may well of been reacting to what is a very cold strat at the moment i believe. We are still a long way off
  6. The issue is people take them too literally, banking on a cold winter based off weak blocking to the north isnt wise, anyway as Steve says, still far too early to issue proper outlooks, another 3 weeks at least before we can start wondering what early winter may bring, let's hope we arent staring down the barrel of a rampant PV.....
  7. People keep saying the GLOSEA was completely wrong last winter and it just isnt true. Here was the Nov update A *weak* blocking signal to the north and troughing into eastern europe. Here is what actually happened A *weak* area of blocking to the north and troughing in eastern europe, it did miss the strong azores high coming through spain into the UK, but to say it was completely wrong isnt true. The anomalies for this year are VERY strong for what looks like a strong PV, looking at current modelling our high pressure over Taymyr and northern siberia is being replaced by low pressure, if that hold for the rest of this month that would favour a +ve AO, which could be what the model is reacting too. So, through this month into the all important November, we look for all of the usual stratospheric disturbances that will cause the vortex to weaken and promote blocking as we go into winter. It is simply too early to say what is going to happen in the next month and a half which lays the blocks for early winter at least. In our current QBO state any SSW is more likely to be later than earlier in the winter. So strap in and enjoy the ride Ryan.
  8. Latest GLOSEA output makes for grim viewing for winter fans. Mild and wet
  9. Not much point reading, as its just pseudo-scientific The Ural blocking in November is definitely interesting to watch, we had an anomaly there last year, which helped disrupt the PV, not quite giving the cold here that a lot of people wanted, but close and then eventually culminating in the SSW. Everything is linked and the atmosphere gives us clues, it's never as simple as A+B=C which i think people keep getting confused with
  10. Plenty of papers on the subject as @interitus said in the other thread Error - Cookies Turned Off RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM
  11. It's not "so tenuous as to be undetectable" All part of the puzzle, and putting the puzzle together through Autumn into winter is what many enjoy on here
  12. The wintertime AO? Not linked soley, but this is the time of year the PV is spinning up, so of course we start the feedback loops etc etc, again, nothing in isolation and things CAN change quickly, it's all part of the puzzle!
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