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coldwinter

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    lincs
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    Weather, photography, wildlife, gaming and rock/metal

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  1. Not sure if its an error or not but only one cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning past day 11. Matches up fairly well with the 06z FWIW. Interesting times....
  2. The NOAA ones looks similar to me? Or am I going blind
  3. The Siberian high and Greenland high have been present in the extended on the ENS for days. Of course seeing the ensemble mean clusters always helps but they are extremely useful.
  4. Very solid agreement in the extended between GEFS and ECM EPS Interesting to get such agreement in the extended. If we can get this big Siberian high and blocking to develop it would not only help with cold chances for the back end of this month, (I note the met are saying dry and below avg temps) but in the long term. Strong Siberian high--->Increased wave activity/poleward heat flux---->weakening of the polar vortex--->-VE AO--->higher chance of colder weather. All speculation for now but an interesting start to the season. Ryan.
  5. Surprised there hasn't been more chatter about the ECM ens this morning. Very impressive ensemble mean with a strong blocking signal out to the end of the run from Scandinavia through the Taymyr region to the Aleutians, signal for troughing into Europe too. Only two clusters on the ECM ens right at the end, big signal for blocking over scandi on the biggest. Even the second has a signal for blocking to the north. Certainly, if this were to verify it would put the polar vortex under some stress, along with a possible strong Siberian high forming. I notice the 06z GFS has also cottoned on to the Siberian high theme. Would expect some decent wave activity if this comes off? Interesting times. Ryan.
  6. Reds would show strong zonal winds. Not what we’d want to see if you like cold! Ryan.
  7. What Was The Last Song You Listened To? Part 4

    I thought he would stay young forever. Very much a legend for sure
  8. Autumn thoughts

    Exactly! It makes it so magical when we actually see a few flakes off the white stuff actually falling from the sky! And I agree, some extremely knowledgeable people on here make it so much fun, I will be watching what happens very closely over the next month or two with the view of making a winter forecast. Seeing where the defined ridges and troughs set up and how the atmosphere shapes up is fascinating and crucial to any forthcoming forecast! Ryan
  9. Autumn thoughts

    They are all pieces of one very big puzzle, one of which I believe we know little about. So many different factors can influence what we experience but I think we have been very unlucky in recent years with regards to cold and snow. Last year had so much promise with an extremely weak polar vortex but things didn't quite fall right. That's why a lot of us on here love the snow so much! Ryan
  10. Autumn thoughts

    Its a shame the OPI didn't return, it obviously wasn't 100% but no type of prediction index ever is. It was linked in with Cohen's snow cover advance theory, the opi just gave us a number that reflected the pressure pattern across hemisphere, the pressure pattern that determines how fast the snow cover builds up! Its all linked, the OPI, taymr peninsula index and snow cover advance, basically one thing. The patterns throughout autumn set up what will happen in the following months, October is where things start to get interesting with regards to winter for me. Ryan
  11. What Was The Last Song You Listened To? Part 4

    Such a shame what happened. We need to be more open about mental health
  12. What Was The Last Song You Listened To? Part 4

    Can't be speaking well of a spurs fan when I'm a Chelsea fan I love anything rock or "rocky"
  13. What Was The Last Song You Listened To? Part 4

    Would compliment your music taste but you're a spurs fan.................
  14. What Was The Last Song You Listened To? Part 4

    Will always be a good tune
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