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coldwinter

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  1. Remember that is 850's and by the end the OP's uppers were watered down
  2. The amount of disrespect on here for people who actually try and understand and analyse the atmosphere and how what is happening in the atmosphere at the time is going to effect the northern hemisphere going forward makes me wonder why the likes of GP bother posting on here at all.
  3. Further east in FI I think he means
  4. Looks like it has another SSW on this run too around similar time frame, a sizeable warming right at the top of the strat near the end too!
  5. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The signal on the EPS anomalies for a atlantic/Greenie high Is right at the top of the scale. if anything, its getting stronger than the last few EPS!
  6. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Interesting, the research of Wenjun Zhang however found a correlation between an eastern pacific based La nina with a negative NAO. And central based with a +VE NAO. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2155-z.pdf
  7. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Isnt that the GFS from last night?
  8. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    You don’t need to explain. I’m just not sure what adding ‘The writing is on the wall for December’ adds either.
  9. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    But I thought winter was over as the incredible CFS is showing mild?
  10. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Selective memories
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Not sure if its an error or not but only one cluster on the ECM ensembles this morning past day 11. Matches up fairly well with the 06z FWIW. Interesting times....
  12. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The NOAA ones looks similar to me? Or am I going blind
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The Siberian high and Greenland high have been present in the extended on the ENS for days. Of course seeing the ensemble mean clusters always helps but they are extremely useful.
  14. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Very solid agreement in the extended between GEFS and ECM EPS Interesting to get such agreement in the extended. If we can get this big Siberian high and blocking to develop it would not only help with cold chances for the back end of this month, (I note the met are saying dry and below avg temps) but in the long term. Strong Siberian high--->Increased wave activity/poleward heat flux---->weakening of the polar vortex--->-VE AO--->higher chance of colder weather. All speculation for now but an interesting start to the season. Ryan.
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