Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Snow Run

Members
  • Posts

    42
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Groombridge, East Sussex 55m asl
  • Interests
    Running, cycling, aviation.

Recent Profile Visitors

2,975 profile views

Snow Run's Achievements

Newbie

Newbie (1/14)

  • Dedicated
  • Week One Done
  • One Month Later
  • Five years in
  • Ten years in

Recent Badges

41

Reputation

  1. Same here now: snow but not settling. You'll be fine up there as it looks from the radar as though it'll get heavier later. You always get more than us... was sliding all over the place when I took my daughter to Beacon on Weds morning!
  2. Same here in Groombridge. Drove up the hill to go to TW at 6.30 to find it snowing heavily. By the time I drove home an hour later there was a decent covering and it was still coming down. Got home to rain - only 3 miles away!
  3. And way out into FI, sliders under a Norwegian Sea block for those who missed out on the inital easterly
  4. Thanks, John. It would follow by definition that there would be NAO and AO index values for every model run (and current/past conditions). From what I've seen, those most often quoted are from NOAA. I have a rough idea that they are from the Azores to about Iceland for NAO, and from there to the pole for AO, but I'll do a bit more reading up!
  5. Hi SSIB I’m not sure if I’ve misinterpreted your comment, but this isn’t my understanding of the NAO. I may well be wrong, as my experience is from deterministic mathematical modelling of structures (FEA), as opposed to NWP. However, I’ve always understood that the NAO (and also AO, Arctic Oscillation) is a statistical index that shows how mean atmospheric pressure varies between two specific points, either current conditions or model output, ie it’s not a model input as a boundary condition. So what I’m trying to say is that either a positive or negative NAO are something that the model output is indicating, and not something they would pick up on. For instance, if the model output is showing a Greenland HP and lower pressure further south, then the corresponding forecast NAO index for this would certainly be negative, but I don’t think that this model result would be fed back into the starting conditions in any way. But I'm happy to be corrected!
  6. Temp 3.9 degC Dewpoint -2.3 degC Just hoping for a nice dusting across Ashdown Forest for my run in in the morning. Failing that, a freeze-up so that I don't have to clean my shoes again!
  7. A good point with regard to the GFS dealing with blocked situations: why would they change it? Perhaps the performance of the model over the US mainland is more important to them (I wonder if there are verification stats, say, for each side of a line of longitude in mid-Atlantic), although would it not need to deal effectively with Pacific weather systems encountering high level blocking as well? I work with numerical structural modelling (finite element analysis, FEA), which follows essentially the same philosophy as NWP. You often find that different programs deal better with certain structures than others. For instance, some are good at detailed layered composites, whereas others might be best at modelling something like oil rig pipework. As such, I was interested in Ian's comment that the JMA holds some respect in the UKMO, possibly due to Japan being in a very similar geographical position with respect to location in the sea just off a large land mass. It's all down to initial boundary conditions and algorithms for FEA - does the same hold true for NWP? Perhaps this should be asked in the Tech Model Discussion thread, but since we're in a lull before the next output...
  8. Just got back from our 5.5 mile club cross country championship race (actually, I've been back a while but am only now able to type having spent half an hour in a hot bath). The mud was the worst it's been in the fourteen years we've been using the course, at a complete contrast to the race on the same weekend last year where the ground was baked hard and the winning times were the fastest for years. This morning's run was a complete slog through shin deep mud and huge freezing puddles of snow melt - brutal conditions. By the last lap in torrential rain and high winds, I couldn't feel my hands and my legs were frozen. It occurred to me at the time (I'd long since lost concentration on the competition!) that it has been an extraordinary week to be out in the weather. On Monday evening it took 4 hrs to drive 20 miles home in a blizzard, and the following day I was running through thigh-deep snow drifts. Must get on, I've got a whole pile of wet and muddy kit to clean - AGAIN.
  9. I left Turner's Hill at 4.30pm yesterday and after doing the weekly food shop in East Grinstead (schoolboy error!) got home at 9.30pm. I bought two winter tyres for the front wheels of my Saab estate in December, and they have been absolutely fantastic - I cannot emphasise enough how superb they are for not just driving in snow but also general performance at low temperatures. Last night's trip involved getting stuck in a jam on the A264 (and being able to do a 3-point turn on a hill to head back), a trip down the steep snowy country lanes to Ashurst Wood and then a detour to rescue a friend from my running club who had to abandon her BMW in East Grinstead. On every steep hill on the way back to Hartfield, we had to dodge abandoned cars and vans and sliding 4x4s, but the trusty winter tyres made it an absolute pleasure. On encountering gridlock in Forest Row, we had to spend an hour in the pub by the fire, but it seemed eminently sensible. As FD says above, so much enjoyment and satisfaction....just don't tell the missus!
  10. Likewise - I've got 3000 people coming to town for a half marathon on Sun 24th!
  11. Ah yes, remember it well, as you'll note from my signature. A couple of days prior to that, the cold air from an ENE direction brought a 2 hr period of snow across the SE - just enough to cancel our event. Five years later, the mother of all GFS dartboard lows actually verified, and although widespread damage was caused across Northern France (depression 'Xynthia' is still featured on its own page on Meteociel), we managed to hold the race. So, with deference to Sod's Law, I can say with some personal confidence that winter may have a few more cards to play - most probably at 10am on Sunday 24th February.
  12. Murr Scale Level 8 snow now being driven along on a freshening south-easterly - but not settling (yet). 0- Nothing / Nada / just curtain dust + flies around the outside light 1- Odd pellet here & there- however we can mentally confirm there are 'flakes' 2- visible light snow falling- not visible to the lampost yet ( unless you stand underneath & obscure the light) 3- flurry level- makes light blue on the radar & a few flakes seen across the lampost 4- we can confirm snow falling without staring at the light- Can confirm to friends & loved ones its snowing via text etc 5- Status 2- moderate flurry, its fine snow at the moment still- it looks quite hard in terms of snow falling however its not amounting to anything 6- proper flakes falling- you will see them now- the odd flake mixed in with the moderate fine snow 7- transition to normal flakes all complete- moderate snow outside 8- 20p flakes going at a steady pace now- accumulating around 0.5cm - 1cm per hour 9- heavy 20p Snow - visibly accumulating + 1cm per hour 10- entry level heavy snow arriving- 50p flakes fluttering in the 20p flakes.. awaiting the beast... 11- 50p flakes nearly transitioned over- we can call it heavy settling snow 2cm ++ per hour 12- Very heavy snow inch per hour all 50p flakes 13- Blizzard- combined with +40 MPH wind-
  13. Currently at Lasham Airfield in Hampshire (620 ft asl). Have abandoned the external survey of a Boeing 727 freighter due to very heavy driving wet snow. Definitely level 8 on the Murr scale, probably now at level 9 since I started typing. Now for the trip back to Turners Hill and then Groombridge (in a more confident manner than if I hadn't had these winter tyres fitted! :-) ).
  14. Looks like one of the bits thrown off by 'the blob' as it barrelled along the Channel - we've just has a light shower up in Turners Hill and it looks quite dark to the south of here.
  15. Just about stopped in Groombridge now (SW of Tunbridge Wells), so the back edge should reach you soon. Final depth after 11 hrs of powdery snow is 13cm.
×
×
  • Create New...