Sugarloaf80
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Posts posted by Sugarloaf80
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There is so much rigorous scientific, peer reviewed data that demonstrates that humans are causing the changes in climate we are currently seeing. I have no problem with people challenging this, that is the nature of science. However, if you do challenge it the onus on you is to come up with scientific evidence that has been peer reviewed to back up what you are saying. At the moment it seems to be the same old arguments that climate has always changed blah blah blah. Yes we know that but we are talking about why it is changing now and what impact that could have on our civilisation, as well as the natural world around us.
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We haven't done well on the snow front but this is still a pretty rare set up. I'm loving walking on frozen ground rather than mud and at least seeing a bit of snow falling and a light dusting. Some pretty impressive icicles about as well. Not seen them for a while. You never know maybe we'll get lucky at the weekend and see some proper snow.
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Snowy surprises will pop up in this set up I'm sure. Precipitation charts are rarely right at 24 hours. Get the cold in first as they say and we definitely have that for at least 4-5 days maybe more. If we do see some it may not go anywhere for a while. Fingers crossed. It's gonna feel bitter that's for sure. Good luck everyone hope we all get a bit of snow to go with the extreme cold.
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Yep snowing in Gilwern. Not settling but is above around 200m I'd say.
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Thought it must be, sleet in Gilwern which usually means snow in Brynmawr.
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Anyone seen the latest CFS run. I'd bank that all day.
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3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Hmmmmm, Ice free by 2007, no 2012, no 2015.....we have 12 years to save the planet. Goal posts Pete. But maybe everyone is learning more in their field as one progresses. And no it’s no Corbyn btw but I am a believer of natural cycles driving the climate. I take it you won’t be voting labour then
Anyway this isn’t the CC thread so I shouldn’t have posted my thoughts as it quickly can derail things
BFTP
I haven't seen any science that says no ice by 2007, 2012 or 2015 so no goalposts haven't moved However, there is an increasing likelihood as the earth continues to warm and the arctic continues to warm much faster than everywhere else. 12 years means if we don't make massive reductions in emissions we risk reaching tipping points where we cannot limit the warming any longer as other positive feedback loops kick in. Arctic sea ice is actually declining faster than anticipated by the IPCC reports and models.
If you are going to make grand claims they should be backed up and agree that this probably belongs in a different thread.
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@weirpig what is your solution then? It's east to criticise not so easy to find alternative solutions or should we all just give up. Those of us that live in Britain have to focus on the British goverment. If the UK stopped buying Chinese products we could influence their policies but you need to get your own house in order first.
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19 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
hate to be a killjoy..but wont never happen
What's it say at the bottom of your profile. 'Aim high you can reach the sky...aim low you have no where else to go'. You never know, seems a long shot I'll admit.
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We've got to stop thinking and acting as individuals. We will never solve this if it was down to individuals to make changes alone. Of course we should do our bit but we need to make a system where there is no option other than to be responsible. E.g. All Electricity should be renewable and this should be delivered as quickly as we can, then it wouldn't be an option whether you used renewable energy or not. Companies that produce waste should be responsible for the cost of recycling it to help move to incentivise them to move to a waste free lifestyle.
It also has to equitable, you shouldn't be able to buy your way out of being responsible. I like the idea of carbon rationing so everyone has the same quota for carbon they can use. This incentivises investment in low carbon solutions as you effectively encourage people to find ways of doing more with less impact. Maybe difficult to administer but I'm sure there are some clever bods out there that could make it happen.
Ultimately we need to move away from GDP as a measure of progress. We already consume far more resources than our planet can sustain and we want to continue to grow doubling our economy every 30ish years. That makes no sense at all and ultimately it isn't making us happier, healthier, more connected etc etc etc and we are the lucky ones, people around the world are being forced to consider leaving their homes as parts of the Earth become uninhabitable millions already and it will be 100s of millions.
This isn't an easy choice we are literally having to choose 'Do we want coral reefs to continue to exist? Are we happy that we will be displacing 100s of millions of people if not billions in the future and the civil unrest and conflict that will inevitably lead to? Are we happy to continue to see our great forests being destroyed or risk drying out and burning? Are we happy to leave our children with a world where 1000s more species are gone and natural areas become increasingly rare?
This could be the start of a new society where we are more equal, where nature is restored, our air, water and land is cleaner, we are more connected with each other as we move away form individualism, we are less materialistic and where we appreciate the incredible planet that is so precious and rare and that we are privelaged to inhabit. These forums demonstrate how much joy and pleasure the nature and natural phenomenons of this planet can offer us.
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The protests are global but to fair to the children I don't think China, Russia or the USA will care what British children are saying. There are children across the world taking part in this so hopefully they will help to influence other countries policies. However, they can influence our government and we are still a member of the G7 etc. so we do have a lot of influence. We are also doing nowhere near enough ourselves and have a long way to go so they have every right to hold our government to account for their future.
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Apologies if this is off topic, but what's the point in discussing the science of climate change if we are not going to discuss it's impacts and how we can hopefully avert them.
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I'm going, I don't have any piercings, I have a scientific background, a good career and a nice family home. I also have children. I have spent most of my working life aware of climate change and the science. I have spent my whole life trying to do my little bit, taken part in protests, write to my MP, sign petitions etc, even support people taking the government to court over this. I have now realise that all this has been to no avail and I see that carbon emissions are still rising and there is a realistic threat, even a likely threat that the world my children will inhabit will be far more turbulent than the one we enjoy today. When famine, drought, wildfires, flooding happen people will be forced to move so it is not just the climate but the social impacts our children will have to deal with. So by all means call me crazy, mock me and the 1000s of others there who are only acting based on what the science is telling us. I hope the science is wrong and I hope that we are doing this for nothing, but it seems to me that we have few other choices left to us. By the way I've never been imprisoned or arrested before and it is not something I consider doing lightly but we have got the the point where it is now or never. I am prepared to risk my liberty, my career and my comfortable lifestyle. I can assure you many of the people who are involved are in similar situations to me and are having to wrestle with the idea of making sacrifices now to avert catastrophe We also as a country should be leading the way, we are wealthy, educated and have always stood up well in a crisis. If we don't act how can we expect others to.
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I feel an immense sense of grief about the impacts of climate change and environmental destruction in general. I wonder if those that feel we cannot impact our environment are aware that we have dried out seas, are causing the 6th mass extinction, rainforest destruction, coral bleaching, plastic pollution not to mention climate change. It is clear we impact the Earth and it is clear we will be leaving it environmentally in a far worse state than we inherited it. We all know deep down in our unconscious the harm we are doing and I believe it is hurting us whether we recognise it or not. Grief can lead to lead to denial, anger, depression and all of these can be seen on this forum. On this forum we all share a common interest and passion for nature and the forces it creates and the beauty, wonder and power it demonstrates. I think we all know deep down inside that we cannot just keep on living, exploiting nature the way we are and that at some point something is going to give. Hopefully at least we can all agree on that.
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I wonder what you all make of this.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record
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My brother was in campbeltown yesterday. It's probably him driving the snow blower. He sais he's never seen anything like it. Hope you all keep warm up there.
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I am a definate newbie but one thing that I have noticed as an argument for the GFS being the correct solution is it's consistency over a number of runs. However, as GFS runs 4 times a day it shows twice as many solutions over the same time period. Therefore, 5 GFS runs is the equivalent of 2 UKMO or ECM runs. From what I noticed the UKMO and ECM have been pretty consistant for at least 3 or 4 runs. This is more consistant than 5 GFS runs. I'm not saying the GFS is wrong but sometimes it is given more wieght as it runs 4 times a day.
Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
You are confusing weather and climate. What part of the predictions of climate change have not happened. I would say we are pretty much on track to what the IPCC and others said would happen, probably a bit quicker than predicted. Temps are rising, sea levels are rising, ice is melting, forests burning, people are leaving certain parts of the world and being displaced. Is there something I am missing?