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Fingers

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    Chandlers Ford, south of Winchester.
  1. Heights higher over Greenland pushing the low on a more southerly trajectory again. Correction south again???
  2. Looks like the low is going to head further to the southwest and dive towards Biscay
  3. @ 60h, 18z just that little bit sharper with heights slightly higher towards Iceland. Let's keep it going! Clem
  4. @120 ecm still going up, but everything looks a tad further east. Can we get the wrap around and still pull in the easterly?!?! Large variations at 48 hours, FI is 72 hours! clem
  5. Complete change this run, everything collapsing away southeast and flattening with no height rises anywhere. No idea where we are heading!
  6. Is that a much better re-load going up at 204Hr? Kerching!!! Yes it is, great run!
  7. Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

    Evening all, Just reviewed the charts for the winter of 62/63..... I'm not entirely sure if I could have controlled myself during that! It looks so easy. Cold high pressure wandering around with frost and fog at the start of december, brief milder spell as the high drifts southwards and then heaven as the Azores high builds in across to Scandinavia before retrogressing slowly north west in to Greenland. Purples and blues frequently maintained to the north, enso neutral on La Niña side, low sunspots, cold in Asia. I'm hoping we'll see some very cold charts for the last week of December arriving in the extended range in around the 10th and you never know, this could be a VERY special Christmas! Never give up, never surrender! Clem
  8. Can't post charts on phone. Looks like height rises going in to Greenland @ 144 hours on the the Ecm. Will our high retrogress and put us in a northerly! Looking forward to the next few frames!
  9. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    A question to ask. I know it's only one run but the jet stream charts below show the stronger reds over us from t120 to t144 and increasing further so we are on the wrong side of the jet and the boundary between the cold and warm. Surely we need the jet dig a lot further down towards Africa to be in the true grip of cold weather?
  10. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    -8 uppers slide across the country on the Ecm around t144 then potential for a cold high to set up over the country, at least it would be dry. Maybe cold surface temperatures under that high. Still plenty of time for upgrades!
  11. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    PV looks a bit more organised @174 with slightly lower heights over the pole. Less yellow too heading to the left side of the tip of Greenland on this run.
  12. We had a frost on the 9th December around Winchester, it got down to a mind blowing -0.5'c! Other than that no sub +5'c overnight temperatures.
  13. Still hoping to buried for the next 2 months! There's a link between NAO in July being repeated through the winter. It was highly negative, think it was 2nd or 3rd most negative recorded, so always hope!! Pesky Nino! Clem
  14. With the temp anomalies currently at 4.3'c above average and forecast to rise further over the coming period, we are going to require some exceptional cold in the remaining 2 months for this winter period DJF to come out anything other than significantly warmer than average. We'll need to be 2-2.5'c cooler than average in Jan and Feb, which is exceptional in itself, to get back to just average for the tri-monthly period!! I'm not writing off winter as plenty to play for in Jan and Feb but need this pattern flip. Fingers crossed the current potential signs come to fruition and the PV weakens accordingly. Clem
  15. We may only be 6 days in but the running CET is 10.1'c, 4.9'c above average so almost double the long term average with no real cold forecast down south in the reliable time frame. The start of winter is certainly not normal but hope to get SSW showing in the <240 hour timeframe and get that currently +2 NAO tanking negative. We don't get much sustained cold here in the uk but frosts would be a good start! Not sure 275mm of rain in one day is that normal either! Clem
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