Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Dave Kightley

Members
  • Posts

    523
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Dave Kightley

  1. Minor differences in just slightly less amplified and further east on the 00z compared to the 18z but not much in it upto 162h
  2. Nearly completely different so who says it will not be in the morning?
  3. If you look at the upper air profile on this side of the globe on the ECM at 162h to 240h you will will wonder where all the really cold upper air went in a matter of days.. Great run for the UK but everywhere else less it seems.. Usually happens when it is the UK turn for a cold spell, the cold air goes hiding!
  4. Will add if you live in North East USA you will be witnessing a 30 odd degree increase in upper air temperature between 192h and 240 on the ECM! Not a good run for you ha
  5. 240 ECM is very nice with -8 uppers over the UK Lovely Scandinavian High!
  6. Gavs latest video around the seasonal models show a bias towards blocking! A lot has changed since the 25th of October in forecasting terms..
  7. The GFS 18z op has not been mentioned this evening! I think I'll wait until the morning runs to look for a cold one.
  8. Yea mentioned it in a previous post! If UKMO would go on to follow it is the thing
  9. UKMO is very stormy at 144h and would need a few more frames to see if it would follow GFS otherwise not a great run at all for coldies except the next few days obviously
  10. Interesting GFS Fl with height rises over or just North if the UK and great for the USA which i suspect would be very cold! In short to medium turn with Low pressure to our West for a lot of it! Probably quite unsetted
  11. Just rain in Bridgwater this evening!! Worked overnight last night and can confirm it was absolutely freezing though no Precipitation sadly!
  12. 192 hours that Low to the west really needs to get lost! Quite a deep low as well! Well the output were going so well! UKMO looks so straight forward so banking on that!
  13. A lot of negativity in the posts while the overall model output is a lot better this evening! Not overally Cold but not been shown with much conviction yet! The pattern is a lot better and should be happy if you want something colder longer term!
  14. Story of late! Great blocking currently though without that great cold upper profile. It does feel like a missed opportunity although it is only November! I see the cold upper profile may continue to struggle though given the margin of error in the output, I would not be surprised to see it go either way still.
  15. I haven't looked at the model output personally but going by some posts I get the feeling the South West is the last place you want to be if you want Snow! That Low pressure is gunna cause us a nightmare I feel which looks stubborn to move..All it seems to do is lift the upper profile in our region so like last week again! Tut
  16. Looks keen for the P.V to get it act together! Maybe a signal but I would of thought abit quick just as the real cold uppers looked to have arrived but then pushed back to non existent! Hopefully the same with the P.V!
  17. Another seasonal model predicts a below average winter for us! I'm beginning to get impatient over winter forecasts! Except the ECMWF seasonal it does look quite promising! According to Ian Fergusson on twitter in reply to the Met model update, it seems an opportunity for cold weather J in F looks a good possibility ATM too.. So if this spell does fail to deliver then the at least there are other chances!
  18. With only the U.K below average.. Maybe that is the P.V setting itself up over us
  19. Well not to everyone apparently! Ha I doubt that chart will be the same at 00z anyway...
  20. Maybe or I haven't got a clue so just stick anything on there might be the answer? Which given the output, don't blame them! Either way not the cleverest thing to say by the beeb
  21. Quite a period of below average temperatures on the way!! One of the hottest summerson record to the coldest winter would be mad! This winter mainly because of lack of expert input so far I'm not sure what is likely to happen! Usually you have an outline what to expect so waiting until more forecasts appear
  22. To be honest there isn't much between them hovering around 0 to -5 throughout which is pretty decent given the type of pattern it's up against! May have to wait for the snow away from the hills!
×
×
  • Create New...