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Dave Kightley

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Everything posted by Dave Kightley

  1. Dave Kightley
    Interesting to see the UKMO seasonal model and the ECM mild biased seasonal model in the action! That should including Metro France previous update provide a big signal... All down to this SSW event materializing you would think..
  2. Dave Kightley
    Well let's hope come the come the end of December this continues to develop plus I think our new interest may come from the west currently in the models
  3. Dave Kightley
    Not another 384h chart! There is diff a trend for some interest to our west just before Christmas though.. GFS did deliver some interest at 360 hours if only temporary as in previous runs
  4. Dave Kightley
    UKMO isnt great either.. Time to surrender with this spell I think guys...
  5. Dave Kightley
    Upto 92h GFS slightly further west again.. 120h not sure about it.. Cold air is gone with SWly winds and big differences in Europe may mess up the run too. Not liking this GFS at all.. so painful to watch Very boring run.. low pressure over us for days... May pull in Nwly but as no cold air there just sums up the run really..
  6. Dave Kightley
    Did that system end up stalling further West? I'm sure this is the time the West Country got hit as I were like 7 at the time and this was the last time in about 10 years to see a decent fall
  7. Dave Kightley
    384h always though....
  8. Dave Kightley
    192h look to our west
  9. Dave Kightley
    Way things have gone, the UKMO and ECM are quite different at 144h so its bound to change... The UKMO has more of a shallow low so banking on that one!
  10. Dave Kightley
    144h as the low has been annoying me for days it ends upbringing Swly winds on the ECM
  11. Dave Kightley
    I wonder if the UKMO would give a more a widespread snow event..
  12. Dave Kightley
    Awesome!
  13. Dave Kightley
    Cracking GFS FL and the 500hpa charts at the end are something else too.. Pick where you want high pressure too its coming up from everywhere!
  14. Dave Kightley
    Well in about 400h it may pay off. 216h that same feature is still there...
  15. Dave Kightley
    That low is ruining an opportunity... hate rain even more now!
  16. Dave Kightley
    That low is not moving... really annoying! Just stays to the west of us ruining it!.. likely to draw up milder air from the south west until it clears... move God damn it
  17. Dave Kightley
    The low is alot shallower on the gfs 00z upto 132h and the block is about 20 per cent bigger too
  18. Dave Kightley
    The models are really struggling as suspected with this.. It hard to make a forecast with whats on offer to us.. A low of 955 air pressure you would suspect is abit OTT
  19. Dave Kightley
    192h Go under... maybe not.. Just double in size
  20. Dave Kightley
    As long as it goes under and draw in some colder air behind then oh well... GFS keeps it hanging around near Greenland for longer
  21. Dave Kightley
    Hmmm not bad at 168 looks like going under? Let that clar then we may get the NEly at the end behind it.. better then GFS anyway
  22. Dave Kightley
    Navgem 00z,GFS P and Gem loving the big low at 144h with a SW to NE tilt in the Atlantic as well...UKMO the best of a nasty bunch this morning
  23. Dave Kightley
    Not ideal but I thought the 18z were a poorer run in terms of shunting the high away quicker so until that is sorted and track of the low, it may still tap into the cold air as it clears from the NE if ever how brief
  24. Dave Kightley
    The 00z run is still better short to medium term with the scandi high hanging on alot longer then the 18z so until that is sorted and where this low ends up might still draw in a NEly as it clears yet!
  25. Dave Kightley
    Looks better then the 18z with the Scandi high further West at 192h and cold upper coming from both directions.. Need to get rid of that pesky thing though as you say..
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