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Dave Kightley

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Everything posted by Dave Kightley

  1. Dave Kightley
    I think it should move south soon as bring patchy Precipitation until atnleast midday tomorrow
  2. Dave Kightley
    Still snowing lightly in Bridgwater so don't give up hope
  3. Dave Kightley
    Temps must be above 0 as there is a very slow thaw... But will take awhile
  4. Dave Kightley
    Quite abit of snow in Bridgwater
  5. Dave Kightley
    I will be looking for a slight west and south movement of the low tomorrow. Must be an unavoidable warm sector within the front or the front gets to far north.. The south west and warm sectors are like best friends normally.. Hoping for a big fall out this week!
  6. Dave Kightley
    Most models are trending south but it seems challenging to keep the South west in an all snow event.. Really annoying
  7. Dave Kightley
    Keepnit right there.. Euro4 is now my favourite model
  8. Dave Kightley
    Here's hoping to see a massive south shift for the south west.. Nothing worse then to see snow to rain!
  9. Dave Kightley
    Good chance of getting a below average month on the 1981-2010 scale
  10. Dave Kightley
    Don't expect you want to be in the centre of the low though.. Looks good if your north of it..
  11. Dave Kightley
    Quite liked the 120 UKMO until the 144h chart just see that low our west ruining the chances of getting anything towards Greenland sustained
  12. Dave Kightley
    GFS has Thursdays low further south.. By quite abit actually! UKMO doesn't look great for the end of the week snow wise (Southern wise) but cold air may come in for a time behind it before the next Beast of a low arrives.. No end to this pattern for at least a week Doubt GFS would produce much Snow away from North England though an improvement by at least 50 miles South shift as a guess or more of the Low on Thursday..
  13. Dave Kightley
    That low will be played around with at 162h twice a day for the next 4 or 5 days... Bound to behave in between
  14. Dave Kightley
    Might still turn out OK as it pushes east but not ideal by any means
  15. Dave Kightley
    The ICON not being on board really isn't good!
  16. Dave Kightley
    Must be like day 5 of this cold spell with days or weeks to go.. Could be a lot worse... Very rare you get the odd mild day.. Some places might not see double digit temps for over a week plus... Amazing!
  17. Dave Kightley
    A lot colder this week though just if temps were a tad lower then Forecast I suspect there would be more snow around
  18. Dave Kightley
    I think ECM has this one but 2bh so much is happening within the out put from placement of the high to depth of the low to precipitation type so forgive it they are all over the place...
  19. Dave Kightley
    Ian Fergusson on Twitter hasn't ruled out the JMA Solution or ECM depending on this low in US or omething along thoughs lines..Finely balanced.. So yes they do take JMA into consideration it seems
  20. Dave Kightley
    The lesser models are showing the same thing whilst the other models are all over the place! Bound to change in the morning in both sets of outputs
  21. Dave Kightley
    Will take that at 192h from the ECM
  22. Dave Kightley
    Ecm is terrible at 144h
  23. Dave Kightley
    Look pretty good to me... The control run is useless anyway..probably as useful as the ICON or that WC model
  24. Dave Kightley
    Many in the west will be thinking what the fuss is about going by this run...Hopefully the UKMO is better
  25. Dave Kightley
    Would like the cold air further west on the gfs...
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