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Everything posted by Dave Kightley
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Dave Kightley replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmm the trough firstly want going SE not NE why it brings slightly less cold air in from the South . To be fair and someone said about a NWly not showing on GFS this.morning does I think hmmm is the truth maybe the first lot collapse then a second is more successful.. in FI -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Dave Kightley replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM from 192 hours hmmm pass like GFS ... -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Dave Kightley replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would say we need the pattern further south on GFS .. to the point there really isn't a cold spell for south on that run as the battleground of SW and E is to far N.. to the point it could avoid give northern blocking a cold air mass.. such a lemon run for the south really -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Dave Kightley replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO very good... GFS better then 18z not but not great upto 200 with less cold air pumped up from the South west.. zzz so not really a cold spell in South to this point.. UKMO very much better run GFS turning into a nightmare.. pass on it.. really poor run loses heights... Leave in the south... Won't be seeing a cold spell on that run . -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will these be cold enough? UKV very good for Southern England at midnight Boxing Day btw.. new to Netweather extra.. I finally joined -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mogreps for London a big upgrade with vast going for cold now... been as useful as any model so can’t be that great! -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
High pressure to the south is going to be the next issue.. want the amplification further west for a start. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It isn’t very good for upper air temps... most rain everywhere... poor run compared to others -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Block over Greenland erosion is like a reset to default ... it so strange how it erodes so quick.. it’s a weird set up at is self destructive.. what ever is going on east of it pushes it out of the way to easy.. it is very messy and unfortunate -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dunno what’s going on by the milder air is winning -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs colder air seems way further south by 24th but I dunno the don’t get the set up so -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the first low is rubbish then once clears it should be better as gfs suggests do not end of the world if it messes up first time I don’t think -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mogreps very 50 /50 such big spread for London later next week.. the winner is the beast hopefully -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Dave Kightley replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mogreps has some terrorists line up about 7 out of the 17 are slightly less cold... 23/24th fingered cross they will calm down again -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Dave Kightley replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs is pants.. looks different to UKMo any away with pest n the atlantic.. it’s like sinking battle ship and bang it’s gone -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Dave Kightley replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs surprising isn’t mild but not cold enough for snow.. probably not full of westerly to nw with low pressure.. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Dave Kightley replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs= rubbish UKMO.. bad but not as maybe -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Dave Kightley replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve just read it does it mean.. I were lucky lol.. very few support an easterly but not without very cold options just not many.. safely say 7c in London is below average..towards the end of the period round the 8th is. Bigger spread -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Dave Kightley replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
MOGREPS-G chart WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM MOGREPS-G numerical weather prediction model This model any good..? Looks around or just below average.. doesn’t really support an easterly or big snow I don’t think -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Dave Kightley replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECm has showed an Easterly the cold air moving westwards... it does on this chart for like a day but the low to the west is not behaving that’s it.. Yesterday it had a easterly in by Wednesday just delayed compared to GFS.. every model changing every 6 hours... I would not bank on it yet -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Dave Kightley replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is annoying the output but I will always look if see if the high will move further West apart the initial bad position .. it really isn't that far off as long as it stays there if it goes West not South then good!