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georgiedre

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Posts posted by georgiedre

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    You know that will happen .. the worst possible chart and will have 95% backing lol

    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I’m nearing the point that I’m thinking I’m more likely to see daffodils than snow this month. You can almost see the smugness on Darren Betts face as he forecasts the mild. On the plus side if this happens I’ll be dusting off the golf clubs and paying for the rounds using the savings on my heating bill ! 

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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Nick F said:

    12z EPS day 10 h500 mean looks pretty amplified with the upper flow, over the N America and N Atlantic by Xmas Day.

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    If that -ve height / trough anomaly west of Iberia cuts-off eventually, as would be expected with a highly amped flow as indicated above, it could lead to pressure rises over the top close our N and NW, pretty much what the week 2 progression to week 3 suggests on the updated EC weeklies:

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    So even though we may endure a mild week in the south next week, could turn cold for all Xmas or Boxing Day onwards ...

    Like I said yesterday 27th 👍🧑‍🎄

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Sorry to burst anyones hopes bubble...

    I can find no anomaly support for a rapid return to wintry cold after next weeks possible northerly.
    The EPS and NOAA charts are on the same page. Theres too much Westerly energy, and the following ridge it likely to be shunted Eastward leaving us in a WSW mean upper flow.
    Its beginning to look a lot like average.... not overly mild, but theres no quick return to a Wintry freeze here.
    In saying that, Northern Blocking is expected to persist, so the potential for a Wintry re-load that might come out of the blue is still there.

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    Ba-humbug .. are you the 1 that stole Christmas 🎄 😉🤣

    • Like 2

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    What! Lunar forcing... New one for me... And if was a factor then surely models would take into account something as stable and the lunar cycle

    Don't know about forcing but the moon has more ssay in our weather than people's think.. high moon during higher pressure can lead yo bulges in the layers above (I think that's what they said when I did science at school. ) and obviously it can affect the tides etc so that weather systems and winds can be stronger etc . Both of these are quite obvious and therefore cannot be discounted in forecasting the weather.  Or at least one of the drivers of meteorology.  Anyway who cares.. just bring us cold and snow now  

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    image.thumb.png.e298e36dcb53153241cf112a717926c8.png

    This isn't promising at all. Look at all those red positive zonal wind anomalies on the latest chart.

    A stark contrast to a year ago around this stage.

    image.thumb.png.8fefde29f755f8666ed3164d7635b26e.png

    All those blue weaker than average areas and even some in reversal at times.

    Guess we can rule out strat help this season by the looks of things.

    Does it make a difference with a disconnect ? I haven't got a clue btw

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    As was not apparent at time of posting. NWP duly advertises the Atlantic sector amplification - the degree of polar jet follow-on yet to be confirmed by the same numerical modelling. Hopefully the bulk of the cold air advection doesn't get trapped further south within the amplified Azores high before it flattens out. These 20C to 22C afternoons ere just bliss and cold nights next week with risk of frost can certainly do one for sure.

    Could this comment mean that there might be more amplification than that's being shown ?

    • Like 2

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    I'd suggest otherwise. Some do bother - and all year around. For my own part that means low key in terms of contributions at this time of year, but the same keen interest applied in the weather patterns behind the scenes, irrespective of it not being my own season of preference choice.   Applying the same diagnostic approach, all year around, means looking objectively at all probabilistic patterns - irrespective of preference. A good way to see model weaknesses all year round and in that way, an aid to stepping back from them and questioning the model interpretation of of the diagnostic rather than getting sucked into the numerical model product itself (including very much what is and what isn't pleasing to the eye)

    That is deemed boring of course by the majority who just want weather preference excitements fulfilled.  Its just not possible to have cake and eat it in the sense of wanting a 'chase' exclusively to seek out a weather fad, but at the same time expecting accuracy by attempts to fit numerical models and even the diagnostics driving the numerical models to the outcome of choice. As soon as human bias (and more than it is evidently true, obsession) comes into play then the margins automatically start to skew very very quickly. Which leads to the sort of frustration and introspection that inevitably fills up page after page afterwards, time after time, year after year (at this time of year) .All of it quite unnecessary - but that leads back to the cake and eating it. Have the cake by all means (enjoy the 'chase') but don't always expect to be able to eat it (savour the end product to the chase) Most of all though, little or nothing gets learned that way as means to avoid the same issue next time.

    Some people take issue with this sort of dispassionate thinking, even get angry towards it when bias is spoken of (and I know that from my own experience in receipt of it) But there is nothing clever, or preachy involved - it is simple common sense and also means that a lot more time is freed up to do other things in life besides watching every computer model and every frame of every computer model. Which means coming back with a fresh mind and a fresh eye.

    Observing and learning about weather patterns all year round, slowly starts to forge an understanding of sub seasonal periodicity of patterns which can be of very useful assistance over the longer range. Very much not a hindcasting format.. In many ways the atmospheric circulation is exhibiting the same imprint of late October time. with the addition of westerly winds amplifying the flow, and this can be traced through the periodicity of the tropical and extra tropical feedbacks cycles which move in up to 60 to 90 day timelines i.e in this case a similar wave-breaking pattern in the Pacific though this time around the West Pacific forcing is stronger still and also a more sustained feedback that looks set to keep an unstable atmospheric circulation vs ENSO base state (GSDM measured) right into 2022.

    However it is evolving and should re-deploy convergence zones further eastwards along the tropics, re-configuring the rossby wavelength in the Pacific consistent with an east based La Nina. Including therefore changes to the stoical high pressure in the North Pacific which has been both propagating the tropical signal in the Western Pacific but also inhibiting movement of the standing wave due to the convective suppression exercised by the presence of the Pacific high through wind-shearing propagation eastwards of the convective westerly wind bursts (in association with the MJO signal).  Changes to this though, and according to a couple of previous posts which touched on it, are highly interesting to watch for the opening month of 2022.

    Hated as they are by the majority (but most appreciated by me in Portugal) those Iberian height rises in the modelling are just one component as an opening part of that process. A probabilistic envelope as always, but for this thread anyway (and putting aside my own ambivalence to cold weather prospects in the UK) worth repeating that the atmosphere remains very primed and pre-disposed to amplification and greater chance of model thread reward is well within that amplification envelope.

    Such a tease there but it's nice to have your insight Into hopefully a happier and colder new year. I've been wondering where the meto have had info into continental winds .. I personally can see some heavy snow around in the next 2 weeks mostly by systems brushing the sw corner.. hope this is what you also see. Hope your keeping well too

    • Like 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

    Oh such a festive mood by some today... The chase for snow on Christmas and Boxing day was always on the marginal side for 7 days now with continuous changes how far south cold air pushes. I haven't checked every single run the past few days as I find these marginal events too stressful for me but when I was going through some runs cold air was barely reaching North Yorkshire. 

    I'm more concerned right now about the very mild output but this is still in FI. 

    Also until METO drops later today any cold chance there's still a slim possibility for things to change to our favor. 

    I was thinking this . They have remained bullish as to a proper cold snap but insist it gets colder into January.. hope this is correct this time 

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