i think estofex will issue a level 2 for much of england tommorow but i think a level 3 may be issued for france and belgium given the amount of cape, dont be surprised to see a level 3 clip kent
had one storm today with a few flashes and loud thunder with torrential rain, the met office have a thundershower in their local forecast for carlisle at 22:00 i thought all storms were dieing away, is this likely to happen?
storms to the south and west of me only a matter of time surely also can someone tell me if the risk of storms is going to be all night or end around midnight?
as far as i can tell now for carlisle the petrell and caldew arent a threat anymore however the eden has been slowly rising this morning but it has started to steady out now according to the enviroment agency however very heavy rain has been falling on the source of the eden and will continue for a hour or so so i think the eden will rise again in the next few hours.
just the latest on the rivers in the carlisle area, the eden at sheepmount has rose almost half a metre in the last hour not good news and the petrill is continuing to rise however the caldew is dropping but it should rise again during the night as with all rivers and a new flash warning saying another 3 inches on high ground is not good news
unfortunatly it is likely to start to go up again due to the intensity of the rain in the northern lakes in the last few hours not peaked yet and unlikely to for a good few hours yet
but the eden at linstock is only 1.5 metres from record levels and rivers wont reach there peak until early evening tommorow and that is also when high tide strikes im probably wrong but explain how please
also adding a further 6+ hours for all the rain on the hills to come down that adds to a furthur 18 hours to rivers reach there peak, do you know the height of carlisles rivers havent seen them today and want to know what theyre like?
looking at that webcam the river has rose almost a metre in the last few hours and we still have 18 hours worth of rain to come off the hills and surge here this is going to put our defences to the limit i think as it is pounding the source of the eden with very heavy rain just as it did in january 2005
on the gfs it looks scarilly similar to the floods in november 2009 although the rain looks less vicious have to be said though it looks like there will be 50-100mm widespread across cumbria but wouldnt be surprised if there was 100-150mm on parts of the lakes by sunday.