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ukpaul

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Interests
    Spring/Summer - pleasant, dry, not hot/humid. Autumn - Blustery/rainy. Winter - Snow plus bright freezing sunny days inbetween.
  • Weather Preferences
    Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  1. Euro4 also has favourable dew points, although not as negative as the GFS. I'll be up at 160m asl this evening for a Christmas meal and the local forecast suggests snow until gone midnight, so I'm keeping a close eye on it.
  2. Dividing line is somewhere around 100-150m asl with it going up to 200m or so west and east sides of the Pennines by dawn. I live at the lower end but work at 160 asl so could be a difficult journey Thursday morning. Same is clearly shown by the current snowline here.
  3. Most of those were poor at those ranges, only in the last 24 hours did they shift the heavy snow from here elsewhere, for example. So, trust none of them! There really is no way of certainty until the last possible moment given not only the likely track but also the numerous parameters needed to predict what will be snow, sleet or rain. T24 and no earlier.
  4. It would be, at least, a consolation prize after the last few days. The Arpege 0.1 shows very little snow chance, however, WRF snow for high ground (usually the moors off to my west) and ICON, weirdly putting it tomorrow night instead. Chances look very slim then, unless we have the reverse of the recent debacle. EURO4 is usually closest so the midnight run should give a clue.
  5. I just moved from the South (Guildford, which is still snowless today) so this is a kick in the teeth, it must be my fault as isnow has deliberately avoided me for years. At least the whingers might give it a rest now they’ve seen it upgrade for them (some hope!).
  6. This is only up until Sunday afternoon, the Monday event for the South won’t show up until tomorrow.
  7. Well the Metoffice has done the same. They had last night correct, at home sleety mess and up here where I am working a nice sprinkling of snow with visibility of something more extensive on the hills.
  8. Suggests that they are seeing the system come through quicker and not disrupting as much. On the models thread there's a lot of cherry picking, the metoffice warning is in line with the main area of projected snow on all but outlier runs. If one goes north, another goes south, the amber warning is for those covered in most eventualities.
  9. The Euro4 covers Northern Ireland, the GFS 6z misses it completely, that's quite a big difference for a whole country there!
  10. But then look at the Icon, also for 6z, which shifts things in comparison. People are setting themselves up for disappointments by discarding charts they don't like. If you are in the snow zone on most models then you will more likely than not get lying snow. If you are in and out then there is a fair chance that you won't. The models, as a whole, tell a clearer picture.
  11. Not at all, up here just across from you the snow depth total is not much less than the 12z, pretty consistent in the same area for the last couple of days. People need to stop thinking of runs as corrections, they are not they are just different options. I think the high res models, WRF, Arpege, Arome, Hirlam, Euro4 are where we should be focusing now, add those to the mix and you get a better overall picture.
  12. I don't think so at all, the system appears to pivot once it gets north on Sunday afternoon and inland north east areas, at least, are in the frame. After that it moves from the Pennines down to Midlands and switches to a more southerly track (dew points and surface temps may have a say there though).
  13. GFS good for here in Yorkshire, models seem to be giving the system a pivot as it passes over so some areas could be well favoured. For the South East (and I only just moved from there so I know your pain), it looks like Monday might be the time you get in on the act, temperatures being just too high before that. Overall, not a particularly snowy run compared to some others, though.
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