Chris.R
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Everything posted by Chris.R
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Small window of opportunity for some heavy showers with possible lightning this afternoon with very cold air aloft.
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WRF was looking reasonable for at least some temporary falling snow down to lower levels for a time but that has spectacularly downgraded last minute once again so it's a pile of crap all round. Bring on spring and the storm season.
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Possible 8th March 2018 event here maybe? Depends on intensity.
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Day 10 I guess I'm addicted to the chase no matter what my head says
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Definitely a snow chance Friday morning but not being taken in this time until t0. Had enough last minute downgrades.
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0.6°C and pure rain thanks to an inversion aloft. Not too far from freezing rain conditions though.
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Sunny all morning here, against the forecast. Another air frost last night, JUST, minimum -0.2°C.
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Forgot to say before... 91.2 mm for the month and 182.6 mm for the year here.
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Well that was a bit underwhelming, expected more convective action than that. Had an air frost last night, first since 19th of January. Minimum -0.6°C. Big orange ball in the sky now all morning, not sure what that is.
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Chance of lightning tomorrow, best of the year so far.
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Looks like a storm Christoph type event in terms of rain/snow transition Thursday morning. Not sure how low the snow line will get yet but one to watch.
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Looking potentially very interesting end of next week. I haven't been on here much so don't know what peoples thoughts are yet but looking cold and unsettled with significant convective possibilities and several potential snow events. Might not be quite cold enough for snow events will have to see but at least looks interesting from a convective and fun point of view.
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Well I made the mistake of reading the Met text forecast this morning for a quick idea of the weather today. It said no rain untill the evening now. thought I might have a nice afternoon visiting Parents in Crosby. I wish I hadn't trusted it.. Sunny when I got there so looking good but then Heavy rain from 2 pm, horrible.
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It's really annoying because the latest WRF that came out 4 hours ago shows the warmer surface layer which wasn't there on the previous runs that messed things up today. If it had been there yesterday I would've re-done the forecast with no accumulation below 150 m.
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Torrential mix of all three precipitation types now. Some snowflakes surviving the passage through the inversion some raindrops surviving as liquid to the surface having not enough time to freeze in the Sub zero layer just above because of the intensity and still some ice pellets. quite fascinating
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At least this bit of the forecast is going to plan then. This is the precipitation mix I expected at this time. still very heavy ice pellets with the occasional large snowflake making it through the inversion. As it continues more and more of these flakes are making it through.
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Very heavy ice pellets/snow mix now. All kinds of sizes of ice pellets along with the occasional large snowflake some encased in ice.
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Heavy ice pellets and rain mix now.
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That's more like it. Proper snow now very heavy and leaving a slight dusting. 1.4°C
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80% snow here
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Trying its best again here but not quite making it yet
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80% snow here now
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1.7°C DP -0.1. Trying to turn here.
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It is looking more marginal than expected. I don't know whether the atmosphere profile is different than model or the surface is warmer than expected, or the positive 850s are further north quicker than expected or what but I did expect more snow reports by now.
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Heavy sleet recently started.
