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Kentish Snowman

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    Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow

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  1. A chillier than expected 3.0c this morning with many reports of snow across the Trans Pennine routes. The outlook does seem to have improved vastly for coldies in the mid term over the last 24 hours so let's hope the models continue to firm up on this later today. C'mon the Beast!
  2. So is this a potential snow event for our region on Sunday or what? Depends on the track and certainly marginal but possible I would say. Could actually be some blizzard conditions on the Northern flank of the low
  3. Precisely! Nobody should be eating any humble pie. They should be applauded for having the bravery to interpret these background signals to try and make a forecast and interpret where the modelling is going wrong. Nobody has ever guaranteed a bitter Winter for the UK and I would suggest it is only those who are now having a tantrum because they didn't get a cold Winter or snow in their back garden that need to take a look at themselves. It's the cold hunt thread so the said posters are going to be looking for cold! Yes this Winter has been disappointing as a whole and I am yet to see a proper snowcover but if you don't want to learn about the signals that may or may not allow us to make a longer range forecast then go back to reading the tea leaves! So fed up with the snide comments and disrespect in this thread. Not to mention the constant Winter is over posts and all based on getting out on the wrong side of bed and looking at some long range op runs that show a bit of milder weather! It's laughable! Rant over!
  4. Stop dragging the thread off topic! FWIW nonsense aside I think the models are still struggling at the moment and I am expecting some kind of height rise to our North Or North East (wedge if you like) to pop up in the next 7 to 10 days. The 0z runs have been toying with this idea? Just a hunch nothing more before I get shot down....
  5. *Enters model thread* Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion. *Leaves model thread*
  6. The problem is the wind is switching nearer to a straight Northerly? The longer land track will mean any showers will die out earlier unless some kind of trough or disturbance develops overnight? Just my opinion but I'm not confident we will see much after this impending 'blob'
  7. Should be a direct hit for you that but I think I am just too far West given the change in wind direction to a more Northerly. Good luck!
  8. Not that bothered today actually as I'm working in Leeds! I am actually hoping though that once the front to our South pulls away so will the cloud shield allowing the showers in the North Sea to beef up a bit a push inland. We just don't want the wind to change too straight Northerly when that happens though as that will ruin inland parts of S and W Yorks chances. We will have to see how the day pans out.....
  9. Looks like another shower streamer setting up further South now. Might be South Yorkshire that benefits more than West mind? As you say though winds are due to swing round more to the N later so hopefully many inland areas will get a shot at a covering. Meto wording certainly looks promising for inland areas for the next 24 hours or so....
  10. The Northern end of that band will not push much further Eastwards now but the Southern end will continue to swing up from the SW in a North Easterly direction meaning that the band will eventually be lying West to East rather than North to South. I would say the Northern edge of the band will lie somewhere around the Midlands by that point before the whole lot swings back SE. Winds should by then though start to back E and then NE bringing showers into our region later tonight and tomorrow? That's how I see it panning out anyway....
  11. Away from the coast (say more than 10 / 15 miles inland) I reckon some areas could do quite well where streamers set up. The E / NE element to the wind will make a difference in terms of the uppers required compared to a NW flow I am sure. Only one way to find out! London still looking good for later on tomorrow?!
  12. Are we not already in a colder phase? -15c forecast in Scotland tonight? Anyway is it not merely the case that an SSW does not guarantee cold for the UK but merely increases the chances? I believe the correlation is around 66% so this is just one of those 34% SSWs where the pieces of the jigsaw did not fall correctly for the UK to benefit? That said I also understand that the downwelling is still occurring somewhat delayed much as it did in 2013 and that we may still achieve some proper cold further down the line? There is still strong evidence of this on tonights model runs? I also believe the SSW has been causative of the jet crossing the UK on a NW SE axis so not sure there are any lessons to learn? It is amazing as well how the success or otherwise of the effects of an SSW are judged based on whether one has had a fall of snow in ones back garden and not based on the overall pattern it creates? All IMHO of course.....
  13. Defo. That keeps York Leeds Sheffield Hull and all areas in between happy that way - and that is coming from a plastic Yorkshireman! Just recorded my coldest temperature of the Winter at -2.1c by the way. Chicago ain't got nothing on us!
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