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Kentish Snowman

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    Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow

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  1. Think the main ingredient for Polar Low formation is around -45c at 500mb level if I'm not mistaken? Not often we get that around the UK to be fair but when it is forecast you could in theory predict in advance (a few days away) that such features forming are a possibility? Certainly looks cold on the 18z GFS during week 2 with that chunk of the PV being ejected over the UK.
  2. Have you not heard of the old saying 9c in Thurso doth not make an early spring?! This GFS run does turn rather snowy just outside the reliable despite the route it takes looking rather dubious...
  3. Is that a serious comment or are you under the influence?! 18z GFS brings in a long fetch cold NW next Monday which will feel bracing. Be interesting to see where this run sits in the ensembles and whether there are still some -15 runs knocking around....
  4. High pressure nosing into the continent? We will be in Bartlett territory on this run at this rate?!
  5. Was going to mention that earlier. They look like the first GFS ensembles approaching or that have actually breached the -15 mark all Winter. Not in deep FI either.... The period from next weekend onwards needs watching closely IMO. Could be all sorts of fireworks showing up on the models for that time frame over the next few days.
  6. For what? Did you not read John Holmes post? GFS 6z ensembles still to come and then onto the 12z runs. Cold and snow looks to have been watered down a little for next week looking at this morning's runs but still plenty of chances going forward. Comments like this not really helpful?
  7. What is your view on the percentage chance of the Beast after this afternoon's and this evening's runs Steve?
  8. Kentish Snowman

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    I think Pennine areas such as your location should do fairly well but I am fully expecting the front to break up and fizzle out as it tries to cross the Pennines. The Meto forecast for my area later today looks essentially dry....
  9. Beginners guide to the psyche of a model watcher in Winter..... 1) A cold spell is shown in FI - "it will never verify it will all go pear shaped" 2) A cold spell moves into the reliable timeframe - "that run looks very dry hardly any snow showing there" 3) The snow arrives after the commencement of said cold spell - "it maybe snowing outside but this cold spell looks like it will be finished next week" We are at Stage 2 at the moment! A very decent start to the day today model wise. I would be very happy in the event the ECM verified and it would seem that all roads lead to cold this morning. Indeed the GEM is a cracker following the durge it produced last night! But will it snow IMBY?
  10. Kentish Snowman

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Good evening Yorkshire! Is it time to declare Winter 2018/2019 finally open?! Looking cold and potentially quite snowy particularly from early next week onwards. Might even be a little surprise tomorrow evening as an appetiser?! Pub run looks great let's hope the overnight runs don't give us a hangover in the morning....
  11. The bed wetting is ridiculous! I havent seen a flake of snow all winter and I love the stuff but I am not going to sit there having a tantrum even if I don't see a flake of snow for the rest of winter! I could half understand the reaction of some if it was March 15th and not January 15th but hey ho.... Eyes down for the ECM. It's getting colder and there will be quite a bit of snow around over the next few weeks for many of us in the UK if you believe what the models are showing and what the Met Office are saying....
  12. Kentish Snowman

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Woah! What the heck went on in here today? Just my humble opinion but the chances of a cold and possibly quite snowy spell have increased today based solely on the extended Met Office outlook. Talk of rain turning to snow. Increased risk of snow to low levels and for the first time talk of disruptive snow. Yes there is the possibility of milder weather getting into the South at times but this only increases the chances of a big snow event surely?! Lovely wintry update from the Met. Lets hope for more upgrades. Bring it on!
  13. Struggling to understand the stressing going on here today. It's January 12th The cold has been forecast for January 20th for quite some time now so still outside the reliable Glosea and EC46 look amazing for Northern Blocking from the end of the month onwards (again outside the reliable) We have a bonus cold spell to look forward to this week The ops do seem to flip flopping somewhat for later in the week but it's not like we are in the last chance saloon? We are heading into a cold spell not out of one and who knows it has the potential to be a spell that is talked about for years to come. I for one am very relaxed about the upcoming few weeks and I would be astonished if large swathes of the UK don't get a decent snow event or two. Eyes down for the pub run! Cheers!
  14. Just looks like natural variation to me? The mean is still sitting around -5 (give or take a degree or so) from 17th onwards? Probably as good as we can expect prior to any Greenland / Northern blocking taking place? I would suspect given the EC46 / Glosea forecasts we will have to wait until at least 25th / 26th for that to take place (assuming such forecasts are correct) which is presently out of range of most modelling?