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Kentish Snowman

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    Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow

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  1. Quite windy here and dry at the moment but it sounds like things will really get going as the cold fronts and any squall lines pass through. Sferics being reported to our West at the moment.
  2. From the storm thread. Sounds like an interesting day especially as some of us are located very near to what would be classed as the East Midlands..... Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 09 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 10 Feb 2020 ISSUED 21:47 UTC Sat 08 Feb 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan A very active day of weather is expected across the British Isles, as a deep area of low pressure tracks eastwards close to northern Scotland. The strong north-south pressure gradient will lead to widespread strong winds, regardless of any additional convective component - and as such we are primarily interested in the additional damaging convective gusts / tornado potential on top of the pre-existing strong wind field (which is already covered in warnings by the Met Office and Met Éireann). The environment will be strongly-sheared, with strong winds throughout the vertical, largely uni-directional. A strong LLJ (90-100mph winds at 850mb) will traverse and strengthen eastwards across England and Wales during Sunday, aiding advection of warm, moist low-level air immediately ahead of the surface cold front. A notable temperature/dewpoint gradient will exist across the cold front, with a slight wind veer. Model guidance suggests 100-300 J/kg CAPE will be available, while the forward motion of the front will aid in forced ascent. A remarkable 40-50kts of shear will exist in the lowest 1km! All-in-all, the atmosphere will be primed for the development of one or more squall lines, fracturing at times to evolve into LEWPs. Some sporadic lightning is possible in places, hence the introduction of a SLGT. Transfer of high momentum air aloft down to the surface in downdrafts could lead to brief damaging straight-line wind gusts at ground level of 75-85mph (especially East Midlands into East Anglia). Such outflow combined with local topographical features could distort the low-level wind field sufficiently to generate bookend vortices and hence pose a risk of a few tornadoes, perhaps locally strong. A SVR has been introduced to highlight this risk. Of course, it is incredibly difficult to pinpoint exactly where this may occur, and the vast majority of the area will not see any tornadic activity - but should any fractures develop within squall lines, which seems likely, then this will increase the risk of a tornado on a local scale. By mid-evening most squall line activity will have cleared to the English Channel and nearby Continent, leaving a rather more classic setup of cold air aloft and frequent showers piling into western areas, but moving well-inland on strong steering winds and more organised troughs in the flow. A few sporadic lightning strikes will therefore be possible on Sunday night, primarily over open waters and near exposed western coasts.
  3. VIDEO: 11 fascinating facts about the Sheffield Hurricane of February 16 1962 | The Star WWW.GOOGLE.COM On February 16 1962 hurricane force winds brought death and destruction to Sheffield. This was pretty bad. 96mph recorded in Sheffield.....
  4. I would imagine genuine blizzard conditions for Northern parts of the UK (especially with elevation) to boot?
  5. Getting a tad worried about the forecast for Monday. Flying from Manchester Monday morning so will be heading over the Pennines around breakfast time! ?
  6. A chillier than expected 3.0c this morning with many reports of snow across the Trans Pennine routes. The outlook does seem to have improved vastly for coldies in the mid term over the last 24 hours so let's hope the models continue to firm up on this later today. C'mon the Beast! ?
  7. So is this a potential snow event for our region on Sunday or what? Depends on the track and certainly marginal but possible I would say. Could actually be some blizzard conditions on the Northern flank of the low ?
  8. Precisely! Nobody should be eating any humble pie. They should be applauded for having the bravery to interpret these background signals to try and make a forecast and interpret where the modelling is going wrong. Nobody has ever guaranteed a bitter Winter for the UK and I would suggest it is only those who are now having a tantrum because they didn't get a cold Winter or snow in their back garden that need to take a look at themselves. It's the cold hunt thread so the said posters are going to be looking for cold! Yes this Winter has been disappointing as a whole and I am yet to see a proper snowcover but if you don't want to learn about the signals that may or may not allow us to make a longer range forecast then go back to reading the tea leaves! So fed up with the snide comments and disrespect in this thread. Not to mention the constant Winter is over posts and all based on getting out on the wrong side of bed and looking at some long range op runs that show a bit of milder weather! It's laughable! Rant over! ?
  9. Stop dragging the thread off topic! ? FWIW nonsense aside I think the models are still struggling at the moment and I am expecting some kind of height rise to our North Or North East (wedge if you like) to pop up in the next 7 to 10 days. The 0z runs have been toying with this idea? Just a hunch nothing more before I get shot down....
  10. *Enters model thread* Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion. *Leaves model thread* ?
  11. The problem is the wind is switching nearer to a straight Northerly? The longer land track will mean any showers will die out earlier unless some kind of trough or disturbance develops overnight? Just my opinion but I'm not confident we will see much after this impending 'blob' ?
  12. Should be a direct hit for you that but I think I am just too far West given the change in wind direction to a more Northerly. Good luck! ?
  13. Not that bothered today actually as I'm working in Leeds! ? I am actually hoping though that once the front to our South pulls away so will the cloud shield allowing the showers in the North Sea to beef up a bit a push inland. We just don't want the wind to change too straight Northerly when that happens though as that will ruin inland parts of S and W Yorks chances. We will have to see how the day pans out.....
  14. Looks like another shower streamer setting up further South now. Might be South Yorkshire that benefits more than West mind? As you say though winds are due to swing round more to the N later so hopefully many inland areas will get a shot at a covering. Meto wording certainly looks promising for inland areas for the next 24 hours or so....
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