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Catacol

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Catacol last won the day on February 6

Catacol had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Wellington, Somerset
  • Interests
    History, Rugby, Cricket... and snow. World of Tanks ain't bad either.
  • Weather Preferences
    Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.

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  1. Hehe - go on presenting! I wasnt having a dig... just dont understand the wringing of hands over perceptions of an event that has barely started. Stuff the models and the radar now - enjoy what's through the window everybody. If staring at radar and high res model runs is your cup of tea while flakes are in the air outside, then this whole snow hunt thing has become rather warped. March 18 is delivering some snow.... could be 5cm, 10cm or 15cm. Could be more... nobody will really know until tea time tomorrow and that's the fun of watching it fall.
  2. Cumulative snow charts arent worth the pixels they are shown on. That chart generally shows the warnings are in the right place - the rest is down to luck. How on earth can people be getting jumpy now?!! Good grief - this has only just started....
  3. I'm no great sage on short term nowcasting... but my favourite tool is the Euro4 model which gives more detail I think than Arpege and is generally pretty accurate. It has maintained its position on the SW being hit by the sweet spot for several runs now... and as such for Devon and Somerset I feel quite optimistic. Main action will be tomorrow morning. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
  4. Evening Chio - good luck tonight and tomorrow. 2 snow events in one season for the south... whatever is going on??!! Happy days. All we need is a dramatic SSW like the one just past - but in early December next time..... :-)
  5. Yep - been quiet since "Emma" - didnt really think we'd see much more action this season even given a late Spring... but this little blast is going to be noteworthy I think. Just goes to show how much impact an SSW can have on our weather, way above and beyond the impact of pacific forcing if we are honest. The fact that there was a Canadian Warming in Dec 1962 helps explain the starting pistol on that famous year. Anyway - let the flakes fall and the fun commence. 2 snow days in one season for Somerset... and we have only just reached the beginning of the interest in terms of the falling solar cycle. Exciting stuff.
  6. Hehe - its early days.... I love the start of an event like this. The end is far enough way (sometime later tomorrow afternoon) that we can just enjoy it to the full. Like the first present from under the tree.... :-)
  7. Well well.. who'd have thought we would have such a blast of Spring snow. Falling moderately now in Wellington and starting to stick. How much can we get by midday tomorrow? Anyone care to hazard a guess?
  8. It's a very bizarre forecast. Such a massive increase in pacific forcing is not "normal" - assuming we know what "normal" is. I have a lot of reading to do this coming warm season... but we seem to be experiencing climate extremes that challenge the record books on a far too frequent basis. I notice that water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high at the moment too. In terms of NWP output I would agree - what we learned a few weeks ago about algorithms and their construction via approximations made would suggest that a pacific spike of the magnitude forecast by GFS via WSI will create some peculiar runs and increased inaccuracy. We are too late in the winter season now I think for any major impacts - but less arctic ice = ever greater energy release in years to come during refreeze = ???? in terms of global patterns? Thanks for the links by the way - plenty to get stuck into...
  9. I agree whole heartedly with this. I sound cavalier (because extreme weather excites me) but I think we are starting to see regularly now the impact of modern climate trends. I am most concerned/interested by the situation in the arctic though all is interconnected in some respect, and the big MJO cycles this season on top of strange QBO behaviour last season on top of a monster Nino the year before is all rather significant in my mind. I think as we move into a low solar cycle - possibly a big minimum (though I wouldnt suggest I have any great knowledge of solar trends) we could see more of these severe winter episodes - on top of the potential for flooding and also significant heat waves. Where the apparent slow down in the gulf stream fits I dont know... but it all suggests more extremes more often. We may simply have to accept that "average" weather will be less the norm, and learn to deal with it. Frankly there is very little we can do to change anything in the short term, and I dont see a medium term solution either. Our children and grandchildren have already had their hand dealt. Political and economic arguments are for another thread another day... but more extreme episodes of winter weather, whatever the context, will at least keep life interesting!! In the meantime I have decided to spend the sticky warm season of summer (yuck) reading up on two areas specifically: arctic ice loss and solar influences on the jet stream. I know you are a bit of an ice expert and enthusiast - anything you could draw my attention to regarding the arctic would be appreciated.
  10. Thaw in process - wonderful few days. Going to take another walk out - and another tomorrow. By Monday it will all be in patches, and winter is gone I think for this season. A real rollercoaster season with lots of potential, near misses and a big hit to finish. Probably cant ask for much more. I wont post much over the summer - I hide from the heat... but have enjoyed it in here this year having not really been a regional fish in the past - so next year will spend more time in this forum. One last post in the mod thread to come - a kind of hindcast analysis... but wont be for a few days. I'm not in the mood at the moment - feel pleasantly punch drunk from the last 2 - 3 weeks!
  11. Yes - I agree. But what a wonderful week overall - if you like snow and ice chaos that is. I was nervous to start, and then Thurs/Fri delivered big time. Going to take a walk out again in a minute - the thaw has started, and by the end of tomorrow it will be melting fast. Over the years I have come to the conclusion that winter in the south is a 15th Dec to 15th March affair. The outer edges of that bracket are fraught with difficulty in terms of getting proper cold, though in the right setup it can happen. Unfortunately I dont see it over the next 10 days, and so winter is coming to an end for me. Always sad to lose the edge of excitement of model and chart interpretation - and even more sad to see the snow melt - but it has to happen. :-) I will wait a week or so and then put together a final hindcast post and put it on the mod thread, if they will allow it to stay. A huge amount has happened his season and many many lessons learned and experience gained. My faith in cold winters has been restored somewhat after 4 average to poor ones, and we have been very close this season to an extended cold spell in the second half. As we move into the colder side of the 11 year solar cycle and see the impact of extreme arctic ice melt I think we are going to have some significant winter weather again at some stage in the next half a dozen years. Next year should be a +QBO and if I were to take a bet on it I'd suggest a Nino phase in the pacific, though there is plenty of time for that to change and far far too early to start pulling analogues out the cupboard. However - the feeling across the pond is that the last time we had a global wave and pressure pattern like the current one in March was 1962. I'll leave it there. :-) More once I've put my thoughts together in detail and had a chance to enjoy the snow for a last day or two. I hope others can still get some enjoyment too this week - the north looks set to hang on to winter for another week, just as it should be. :-)
  12. Big large lump of precipitation has missed us by about 15 miles to the west just now... but I'm not worried anymore. Cant be greedy. We will have a winter wonderland here tomorrow guaranteed. Awesome for 1st March. Imagine if this setup had arrived in January? Maybe next time. :-) Glad you are cashing in also. :-)
  13. Yes. For a day or 3 my nerves got the better of me as the macro pattern turned less good, and the jitters set in... but ultimately it has been worth the wait. Tomorrow will be glorious - I have to go into work, but it will be a very slow day, and I intend to spend a lot of it sat on a bench under an awning on the main school field staring out across the snowscape and hopefully watching a few more flakes come down before any thaw sets in on Saturday. :-) The walk to work itself is something I'd pay money to do. Ever noticed how friendly everyone gets when snow is falling - strangers suddenly start talking! I feel lucky. Calcutta Cup win... now snow.... so for my third and final trick a jackpot on a scratch card. :-)
  14. We are being buried... :-) Slightly less over the top - looks like the MetO call of about 8 inches when all is said and done may be pretty close to the mark. It's drifting around a bit - I took a walk out at about 8pm and there are parts at about a foot deep and others at no more than 1 or 2 inches... but overall by walk to work time I would expect around 8 inches. I'll measure and report.. :-) Still snowing - obviously. :-)
  15. Blizzard in Wellington right now - just took the family out for some fun in the dark and drifts in places are approaching a foot deep. Unbelievable sight. Never seen anything like it down here. We are in the red zone... and if this keeps up then 20cm will be at the low end of the coverage by midnight. Absolutely spectacular.
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