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Catacol last won the day on January 25

Catacol had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
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    Wellington, Somerset
  • Interests
    History, Rugby, Cricket... and snow. World of Tanks ain't bad either.
  • Weather Preferences
    Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.

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  1. True. It shows perhaps that favourable wave breaking eddies are possible in any background state - as happened in early Feb 96. Ultimately we all know I think that we are involved in a game of probabilities when trying to forecast small scale synoptics for an island as small as the UK. An understanding of teleconnections allows us to give some degree of correct weighting to those probabilities - but in the end the 1 in 100 shot can and does come in at the head of the field every now and again. 5 x 100 to 1 winners of the Grand National in 179 years of the race... I'm still looking at an S
  2. All a question of timing Jules. We want that Sceuro high to hang around - at as high a latitude as possible - to perturb the vortex and potentially setup an interesting heart of winter. At the same time we want Nina to approach a bottom of around -1.5 and no lower to promote that referenced mid atlantic ridge. At the moment both these scenarios are still in play and possible....though your doomsday scenario will always be more than just possible given the usual tendency towards atlantic dominance in all northern hemisphere winters. However check your first temperature graph more closely.
  3. Yes it really is shocking....and the lack of any substantive increase in the last third of October is a huge eye opener. Not good from any angle. I know theories around arctic ice loss having an impact on the strength and angle of the jet have been knocked back in recent years, but we might well be in new territory here regarding synoptic impacts. All that open water promoting moisture evaporation and latent warmth (compared to ice) must impact on Siberian patterns in some shape or form. I enjoy your updates by the way - very informative.
  4. This is all going rather well. If the North Pacific can stay clear of sustained high pressure for a bit, and that sceuro high holds its ground, then watch for wave 2 activity through December. As Amy Butler has reported some of the best split vortex SSW events have happened in La Niña years. Just about getting late enough in the year to get properly interested in things. And if ECM is to be believed sceuro positive anomalies will be there for the first half of November at least....
  5. Agree with this Jules. And even if an SSW doesn’t follow with all the associated dice rolling that would then come into play, a weakening of the trop vortex via sceuro ridging will help create a context for greater blocking potential once the vortex passes its seasonal peak. We will see. Scouring various forums I’m seeing 2010/11 and 1995/96 mentioned by analog junkies quite regularly. I got snow in both those seasons...so I’d take either. Bar the extraordinary and freakish 2018 Beast we haven’t had a cold outbreak of note in years. Gotta end sometime....
  6. It’s very early days really - good to see some outlooks beginning to emerge but in truth very far out to be sure: Snowy’s early plumping for a pretty standard Niña pattern illustrating good gambler’s instincts. For me the strength of Niña will be the key element and if MJO phases 7/8 are undermined by cold waters in the west/central Pacific then Greenland heights I think become a long shot. However I do see opportunities for Scandy High development this season, and I think I’m also beginning to sense that an SSW may be a genuine possibility this year. We are all waiting now to see if the
  7. Very good setup for vortex stress. Wave 2 impacts would follow in the stratosphere.
  8. No. 1998/99 was a grim winter - wet and mild. Early Feb brought some snow to the north of Scotland, hills of Wales and the odd shower off the back of that low on 8/9 Feb...but a poor affair overall. In both your charts the Azores high is in control. A few days before your Feb chart this was the picture - no embedded cold to work from. Horrible +NAO. Classic Nina - the fear for this year if things go wrong!
  9. Not many in the U.K. will be hoping for a rerun of 1998/99. Mild and no snow throughout for the vast majority.
  10. We probably dont want a strong Nina. On balance that increases the chances of a +NAO winter and westerly dominance. 2010 was a moderate Nina - and the track record of weak/moderate Nina conditions suggests early cold from atlantic ridge. In 2010 we got such a significant ridge and plunge of polar air that it did create something a bit special. So - moderate probably ok. Strong not so ok......
  11. I suppose (though I say it through grated winter teeth!!) there is more to winter weather watching than snow hunting. Were we to get a super Nina then watching what unfolds in another near unique climate scenario should be interest enough to keep us happy...even if the result was wall to wall rain, or air drawn from Africa as with @CreweCold and his Glosea musings on the other thread. I'm not sure that "normal" means a huge amount anymore in any case. Whether it is a super Nino (15/16) or an unbelievable vortex shatter (17/18) or an index breaking IOD (19/20) we are seeing record books shredde
  12. In a word - no. There are none in the modern record. Strong Ninas include the horror seasons of 88/89 and 98/99. However the character of each event is likely to be different, and the Met O forecast concentrates the anomaly in 3.4 and to a lesser extent 3 - so very much another central Nina in the offing. 2010/11 (strong) or 2016/17 (moderate) recently. Were it to become a "super" event and crash through and beyond the -2 boundary then we are probably in uncharted waters (no pun intended) - and together with very low ice over the arctic who knows how things may pan out. I'm seeing climate
  13. v ie Oct v Sept run for 3.4. It's quite a big shift towards a strong event. Not good news for later winter cold perhaps - unless we get a shattered vortex. All these teleconnections are important....but on their own they mean little. I'd have preferred this indicator to stay at around the -1.5 mark though rather than suggest -2........
  14. Yes it is Steve. Clear signal for higher heights to the north than predicted last month with lower pressure over western Russia perhaps helping advert cold westwards still. Smoothed 3 month averages are annoying - but a very positive shift as far as these maps go.
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