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AWD

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AWD last won the day on October 27 2013

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About AWD

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Keynsham, near Bristol
  • Interests
    Active and exciting weather. Sea fishing and eating said fish. Liverpool Football Club, past and present,
  • Weather Preferences
    Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow

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  1. Be positive. You should get a 14 & a half hour blizzard at least. Maybe 15hr in Princetown. Lol.
  2. Are you expecting the tropospheric vortex to fully reform before the final warming or would it be safe to assume the trop vortex won't fully reform this season now and due to it's weakened state, the final warming might have more "rewards" to it compared to what a typical final warming would have on a normal, fully running trop vortex? If the latter, then won't this increase the chances of further, notably cold weather throughout March due to the cold air already around lower latitudes because of the recent SSW, making it easier for heights to remain or form around various places within the Arctic circle? Obviously, this doesn't prevent a WB NAO setting up as per some 12z NWP output tonight.
  3. Not sure mate but too be honest I don't really care at the moment. Plenty enough interest to keep tabs on in this coming week, albeit with the main snow threat focused on Friday for our region. For week 2, if I had to go there, I would say we will lose the cold upper airmass for a while as our Scandinavian HP becomes a Greenland HP. This would allow Maritime air into our region for a while but I can see another blocked pattern setting up in the long term bringing another spell of below average temps to NW Europe. However, we will probably be in mid March by then, and I wouldn't expect it to be as cold as what is forecast this coming week so debatable whether, for mid March, it will be cold enough to deliver anything wintry this far south. Personally speaking, I am ready for the first "storm chasing" sagas to commence then. Anyway, like I said, much to be assessed over the coming week. Worth remembering, if the Atlantic air does win out at the end of the week (tonight's runs says it will), then with the depth of cold we are forecast to get, it will highly likely go win out with a bang.
  4. To try and summarise this week in simplistic terms. Monday - mainly dry across our region. Bitterly cold in a raw easterly wind. Isolated snow flurries along English Channel coasts later in the day. For most of us, sunny but very cold with temps just 1c - 4c. Tuesday - even colder than Monday. Bitterly cold, exasperated by an extensive windchill. Starting dry for most of us after a hard overnight frost, but as we head into the afternoon, snow showers will start to enter our region from the east. A more clustered area of showers may traverse our region from the NE, heading SW late into the day and overnight, providing a small covering for a lucky few of us. An ice day for many of us. Wednesday - the coldest day of this cold spell. Bitterly cold with a bitter windchill. A covering of snow may greet a lucky few of us from overnight snow shower activity. The day will start dry and bright but snow showers will quickly traverse our region bringing yet another small covering to some of us. This is the day snow showers will be most frequent across our region. An ice day for many of us. Thursday - another bitterly cold day, although not quite as cold as the previous couple of days. A hard frost will greet most of us. The day will be much drier than previous days for most of us as snow shower activity decreases ahead of frontal activity approaching from the S/SW. Later in the day, some heavy frontal snowfall may encroach into southern most districts of our region. Temps for most, 0c - 3c. Overnight Thursday and into Friday - obviously due to the timescale involved, confidence decreases here. Current indications favour a spell of significant, disruptive snowfall for many of us in gale force E/SE'ly winds leading to blizzard like conditions for some. The snowfall could lead to localised large accumulations causing immense travel and infrastructure problems. Later in the day, snowfall may turn marginal, or even to rain across southern most counties of our region as maritime air starts to mix out the cold continental airmass of the week. Temps 0c in the north of the region, 2 - 5c in the south of the region.
  5. That's spot on. EC Det 12z, whilst probably too quick & progressive amongst it's ens, still brings parts of our region a 24/36 hour period of heavy, disruptive snowfall with blizzard like conditions. Bear in mind this is the worst 12z Det run tonight too, along with it being the worst case scenario in it's own ens.
  6. Not worth looking mate. As poor as the longer term output is for prolonging the cold, Friday is unanimously very snowy for us, across most 12z model output. That's all we need to know for now.
  7. Worth noting, the Meto SW forecast for Tuesday - Wednesday now mentions "locally disruptive accumulations". Looks like they area forecasting an increase in snow shower activity midweek across the SW now.
  8. My Meto App now has me down for heavy snow all day Friday. First time I have had that forecast so far. Personally speaking, I would let winter go & welcome in spring so long as I got a 24/36 hour blizzard like snow storm as some output shows tonight. It will be all change tomorrow anyway, the seesaw keeps seesaw-ing.
  9. I wouldn't say upgrade, but we get away with it, yes!
  10. Yes, EC Det not great for English coastal counties. Mendips/Salisbury plain northwards should get away with white rather than wet on this run. Uncomfortable viewing for our region though. On a positive note for members further south in the region, we are still talking 120+ hours away to the event, so ample time for microscale favourable changes yet.
  11. Taking the UKMO 12z, GFS Op 12z & EC Det 12z at face value, I'm in a rather sweet position for some substantial snowfall at the end of next week. However, I doubt any of the above models will verify exactly at face value.
  12. Not sure how comfortable I am with the UKMO 12z output. On the one hand, there would certainly be some heavy, blizzard like snowfall for all of us late Thursday through to Friday. On the other hand, the intensity of the LP on Friday's chart suggest it still has the ooomph to make further northerly inroads into the UK, bringing the high risk of maritime air into the mix over the weekend the further south and west you are. All a long way off, of course and subject to numerous changes. We are receiving ever increasing signals of a significant wintry event for our region late in the new working week, it's going to be a long and nail biting week on the seesaw trying to iron out the microscale details that surround this event and what it means for our tiny little region on this tiny little Island.
  13. Actually, to be fair, that is not as bad as I thought it would look for the south. Those 850hpa temps plus low thickness values progged might keep parts of Wales & SW England white rather than wet. Shame we can't see the forecast Dp's for those charts.
  14. UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4; Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England. On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England. I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are. Low thickness values might help those in the SW though?
  15. Take a look at the latest Meto further outlook for the end of next week. Not often you see the words "blizzard", "disruptive", "southern UK" & "snowfall" in the same sentence.
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