GeorgeWX

Today's sunspot number is 91. Solar flux at 132. The last two solar rotations show a pattern emerging with the sn and sfi numbers swinging up then down, currently we are at the 'down', all should change in around 4-5 days when more active regions begin to rotate into view. The map below shows areas of active magnetism on the farside of the sun, regions circled are areas where there is a degree of confidence and are alongside numbers representing the percentage of confidence, i.e P80 = 80% confidence. Lasco images showing yesterday's cme are now available. Most of, if not all the ejected material is sailing well wide of earth. The cme is also very slow and faint. I don't expect geomagnetic storming from this event. Today, the most recent stereo beacon data is showing a cme that may be earth directed, Looking at other imagery I can see some sort of activity from earth directed sunspot 1330 around 12pm. There is no associated flare with the event. More information will be available as Lasco updates (hopefully) over the coming hours. Today's sun

Noaa daily summary/forecast issued. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray event at 26/1001Z from Region 1324 (N12W38). Associated with this event was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 26/1000Z. GOES-15 SXI imagery first observed material movement from Region 1324 in a W-NW direction at about 26/0800Z. Limited imagery prevented a thorough analysis of the CMEs potential geoeffectiveness. The region exhibited significant decay in area and spot count and was classified as a beta magnetic configuration. In short, noaa's summary mirror's my previous post, right down to not being able to see Lasco imagery! It looks like you may be one of only a few people in the UK to see the storm at it's peak. Nice catch! Getting pics of aurora with a camera phone is tricky. A high exposure or a slow shutter speed reveals a lot more detail than a snap n go camera pic. Look through your phone settings, you might be able to max out exposure, its a good idea to support the device when taking pictures, even sitting it side up on a surface and tilting back with one hand to the desired amount helps greatly to get a decent crisp shot.

Sorry Lorenzo last night I didn't log back on after I posted, Maybe I should have clarified in that the bbc article was optimistic as the storm was well and truly over, last night did turn out to be quiet. The same is expected for tonight. Nothing much to report in terms of solar activity apart from a C1 flare and possible cme late this morning from around 1324. As usual Lasco imagery of the cme has been cut so will look at noaa's daily summary later on to see if this filament eruption could be geo-effective. 1324 has decayed significantly since the last update. 1330 remains quiet but has the potential for M class flaring. Today's sun

From the BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-15450510 Slightly optimistic. Tonight's geomagnetic activity is likely to be minuscule compared to that of last night. For anyone interested, the Bz going negative would be the first sign that storming may soon commence again. The Bz has been in a constant positive (northward) state since 4am utc. A positive Bz restricts the influence of the solar wind.

Very true, I would say that in the last 6 months the reliability of the Crooktree magnetometer has improved. But still you are correct, At the moment in last night's storm when the magnetic field weakened by over 200nT (around 11pm uk time), I had to cross reference with other uk and euro magnetometers to be sure it wasn't just going haywire. It checked out fine and correlated closely with other magnetometers. Will be interesting to see if anyone in the UK managed to image the aurora. On spaceweather.com there is much excitement at the sightings across the USA with plenty of pics to boot, but this storm reached it's peak and most southerly extent between 11.15pm and 1am uk time, before nightfall over the pond. Europe was perfectly positioned for the best show and the USA got the table scraps of this geomagnetic storm. The first warning I can see anywhere for mid-latitude aurora didn't come until around 11pm here. The Americans got several hours of notice that something was happening.

Optimum aurora viewing window closes around 3am UTC, and the geomagnetic storm continues but the magnetic field has largely recovered. Aurora sightings only possible north of 54N, to the NW horizon for the next 10-15 minutes. It looks to me like the maximum deviation detected by the scottish magnetometer was somewhere around -400nT, that is a huge figure. Most recent planetery kp at 6. For the period 11pm-2am UTC, the UK K-index (Hartland) was 8.

Most recent magnetometer update shows the trend continuing... Aurora visible as far south as 53N, overhead anywhere north of 56N What i'll say at this late hour is I'm greatly dumbfounded at just how this geomagnetic storm became so powerful. Factor this in, the cme struck early in the evening, NOAA's space weather prediction centre issued their daily forecast at 11pm uk time, so it would have been compiled whilst under cme effects. Nothing in their forecast suggests conditions will be stronger than kp4 (active), this is a forecast issued DURING the cme passage. Even swpc couldn't see this one coming and they had all the stats to hand for the ongoing cme when forecasting isolated active periods. In my opinion the filament eruption of 22/10 is not large enough to explain the strength of the ongoing geomagnetic storm. Every space weather forecast out there was in agreement, a period of active or active to minor storming (k4-5). It was not earth directed, at most a brief flank hit was possible, the vast majority of the ejected matter sailed well wide of us. And the bright M1 flare/cme of 22/10 was heading north of the ecliptic plane, that's not the cause of this geomagnetic storm either. I do wonder what is... I was just as unlucky as yourself, I'd guess the fog was in the way. There's always next time.

Signs of receding now showing, the last 15 minutes auroral activity is heading north. There continues to be powerful sub-storming which implies the aurora is likely to be bright. Still visible UK wide and overhead as far south as 53N. Shocked to see very little coverage of this incredibly strong geo-storm from any of the 'reputable' sources. Maybe they're all out looking at the aurora hence too busy to update their web pages!

Super strong sub-storming, a very mobile aurora in the last 10 minutes. Still visible UK wide, likely to be visible in the northern horizon as far south as 45N. (europe) Completely clouded out here for the moment. Good luck.

The kp7 rating is based on the 3 hours from 9pm utc to 12am utc, look at the magnetometer and see the level of activity between these two points, not much happens until around 23.15 utc, then severe storming commences and the measurement is taken at midnight. If the 3 hr planetery kp measurement was 10pm utc to 1am utc, it would return a kp9, I guarantee it. So, current conditions are typical of a kp9 storm. If you have clear skies then yes you will see activity just look up and north.

This is just crazy. These are the sort of geomagnetic storms that test our infrastructure. Definitely the most severe geomagnetic storm since 2005, currently in the running to take the title of the largest geomagnetic storm of the 21st century, that is, one stronger than the halloween 2003 storm, possibly as large as the bastille day event. I just can't believe it myself. Everybody missed it. Are you bricking it Yamkin? It's a huge storm. Overhead aurora likely as far south as 52N, possibly further south than that. For those in the far north there may be moments when the aurora is most visible in the skies to the south.

Had to go out for a look, from where I am LP from Glasgow turns the skies to the north yukky brown. Normally I drive to a spot not too far away but the current geomagnetic storm is strong enough for aurora to be overhead. Despite a small handful of clear patches dotted around the sky, I couldn't see a thing, just too much cloud here This is the largest geomagnetic storm of 2011 and possibly one of the largest that will happen in this solar cycle. Most recent planetery kp (22.00-01.00) is a kp7. Current conditions are typical of K9. I'll be first to say I wasn't expecting this to happen, the filament eruption responsible for this geo-storm was barely earth directed, also the source of the eruption was deep in the NW quarter of the sun, eruptions from the far W region are rarely geo-effective, unless they are very fast. The filament burst of 22/10 just wasn't. Because the kp index is a measurement based on 3 hourly periods. There is no correlation between the temperature of the solar wind and kp index, none whatsoever. We are now. The earlier posts you made were inaccurate, unless that is.... you are psychic.

ok, this is FAR bigger than anyone had anticipated, the magnetometer has just updated in the last 30 seconds and it's turning into a whopper of a geomagnetic storm. It looks to me like a deviation of around -150nT. Weather permitting, aurora should be visible UK wide and across northern europe, Overhead for Scotland, NI and North England, no doubt about it. That is, right now. I don't know the length of time this opportunity exists, it won't be very long though. Best aurora opportunity of 2011. On that table 'K' stands for Kelvin, a measurement of temperature. Nothing to do with the kp index.

The most recent planetery kp rating is a 5. I don't know where Yamkin finds the kp8 rating. That said, in the last 15 minutes magnetometer's have spiked very abruptly indeed, though it's more likely to be only a brief period of severe storming. This single spike alone should be sufficient enough for the next 3 hour kp to be 7+. Next planetery kp update around 1am for anyone interested. It's not easy judging how far south the aurora might go, we are hitting the sweet spot with 12am UTC not far away, The aurora stretches furthest south at 12am local time. Weather permitting it's worth a look as far south as 53N, maybe even 52N. The current disruption is related to the filament eruption of 22/10. 'By the way' Yamkin the kp only goes to 9, how many times on this thread has someone said 'OMG kp10!'. You are looking at the poes activity map aren't you, on that map activity levels 0 to 9 imply kp4 or less, level 10 imply's kp5 or more... It get's to level 10 quite a lot.

I know Nasa have a satellite orbiting mars called the reconnaissance orbiter, It might carry instrumentation able to detect the characteristics of the solar wind, I'm not too sure if it does though. I do know there's a vast array of imaging devices on the satellite so pics of aurorae on Mars are possible. The cme relating to the M1 flare was a huge one, and it perfectly illustrates that flare intensity doesn't correlate with cme density. If this cme was earth directed it would arrive with a powerful punch, and inflict strong geomagnetic storming. Quick summary of solar activity. Sunspot number - 102. Solar flux - 156. The drop in sunspot number largely down to several active regions disappearing from earth's view in the last 2 days. Active region 1324 continues to harbour many small spots, it quietened down a couple of days ago but now looks to be perking up a little bit, only C class activity so far but the chance of low M class flaring exists once again. The un-numbered active region on the eastern limb mentioned in the last post is now fully in view and has been numbered 1330. Once again this region has been largely quiet over the past couple of days, that could change. Shortly before the bright M1 flare on 22/10, there is a large filament eruption from the NW quadrant. Most of the solar forecasters believe it is geo-effective and a period of kp4-5 is possible sometime tomorrow. Todays sun

One day on and sunspot number a new high of 207. Solar flux at 168. Active region 1324 has simmered down during the last 24 hours however manages to maintain it's coverage and spot count. Active region 1319 was responsible for a M1 flare yesterday around 12pm, with it came a large filament eruption. It's unlikely to be geo-effective due to the location of 1319, soon to disappear over the limb. This morning around 2.30am a C2.5 flare and cme came from a new equatorial region rotating into view on the eastern limb. On the sun map it is labelled 'new1'. Aside from the above, there has been little flare activity. All that could very easily change in the coming 24 hours. Today's sun and 1324 close up

Today's sunspot number is 195, smashing the previous high of 173 recorded on 16/09/11, this is due to rapid development around 1324. Today's solar flux at 160.

Solar activity in general is on the rise, both sunspot number and solar flux have been above 130 since 11/10. Today's sunspot number is 162 and solar flux at 147. Despite the rising measurements, only C class flaring has occurred, the exception being a M1 flare this morning from a region rotating out of view. The active region with greatest potential is 1324 (and straggler 1325). During the last rotation this large region was numbered 1302 and contained a mammoth sized sunspot. It was responsible for several M and X class flares as well as a fast earth directed cme. Severe geomagnetic storming resulted during the cme passage and the northern lights were visible across northern Europe. During the last 24 hours 1324 has expanded at a rapid pace and there is significant polarity intermixing, M class flaring is possible as growth continues. Any cme activity today has potential to have a partially earth directed component. The risk of earthbound cme's rises during the next 3 to 4 days as 1324/5 rotates further toward centre disk. The sun today The sun at this point during the last rotation (24/09) sunspot number - 90, Solar flux - 158 (my computer is now fixed so i'm able to update should anything interesting occur)

I was slightly surprised that Nasa and Noaa made no mention of the connection between the two regions until a large eruption 'revealed' all. Several days prior to this I mentioned it (albeit briefly) in one of my updates. http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2139131

Hi, recent computer meltdown is making getting online a bit trickier, re-installing the OS seems a temporary fix but the hard drive is well past it. One of the expected cme's arrived slightly later than billed at around 7am this morning, Russia is well positioned for any auroral activity. In terms of cme strength it barely scrapes into the moderate category, I don't anticipate this particular geomagnetic storm will persist into this evening (not giving consideration to any other cme arrivals). There is no doubt in my mind that the currently disrupted field is as a result of the effect from just one cme. There is definitely a second en-route and possibly a third as well, both of these cme's are scheduled to arrive today. If the cme direction is correct and they do indeed pass through, then there is a real chance for persistent minor storming this evening with bouts of major to severe storming. It all hangs on the cme's arriving whilst under the effects of the current cme passage. Todays solar flux is 130 and sunspot number is 126. Infamous sunspot group 1302, the region responsible for the incredible geomagnetic storm of 26/09 is waving goodbye as is disappears over the limb. In the last 2-3 days it has decayed significantly (well overdue imo). Sunspot 1305 which was has been another hopeful candidate is well past the position required for earth directed activity, It maintains most of it's girth. More recently we see a new sunspot forming deep in the southern hemisphere numbered 1310, and a second southern spot 1311, both regions are growing rapidly. Two further regions of reasonable size have recently appeared over the limb, 1309 and 1312, both remain stable and quiet. A new sunspot region appearing over the limb today (and yet to be officially numbered) is showing a lot of activity with 4 C class flares today, the largest being a C9.2. On the attached image it is labelled 'new1'. As has been pointed out, there has been a lot of farside activity recently, the likely culprit for the impressive halo eruption would be old region 1295, which showed a lot of promise during the last rotation but disappointingly maintained a mostly stable state. This region will appear over the limb around the 10-11th October provided it doesn't 'decompose' itself.

Today's solar flux reading is 137. Daily values have consistantly been higher than 130 since 13/09. Yesterday's 'interesting' M1 class flare involved several active regions on the solar surface, both 1302 and 1305 released cme's during the flare activity. It's likely that some of the matter will pass us late Monday or early Tuesday. Also in the early hours of this morning a M3.9 flare coming from 1305 again looks to have let loose a faint cme. Grouping all of the potentially geo-effective cme's together, we should expect the geomagnetic field to wake up tomorrow afternoon with the potential flank hit from the cme relating to the M1 flare (30/09). Soon after that we expect the arrival of the more recent cme activity. Periods of minor storming are very likely during 04/10, with the solar wind being influenced by many different cme's as well as an ongoing coronal hole wind stream, the potential exists for geomagnetic activity to reach (and possibly exceed) major storm levels on 04/10.

Yesterday evening's M1 class flare emitted a cme, rather faint and generally heading north of the ecliptic plane. Most of, if not all the matter will sail wide. This morning at 11am earth facing sunspot 1305 was responsible for another M1 flare, this event looks interesting. It will be a number of hours before the Lasco images come in. All the preliminery data points to a huge and bright cme that should incorporate earth in it's path. I'll say no more until Lasco comes through.

In the last hour earth's magnetic field has responded to the arrival of the C6 flare cme mentioned above, The Canada/U.S is better positioned for this one. There may be slim aurora opportunities once the cme takes hold (perhaps in 30-60 minutes) but it's arrival is a little tad late for the european's. There is potentially another earth directed cme thanks to a M1 class flare from sunspot 1305 earlier this evening. I'll update tomorrow.

Geomagnetic activity remains at unsettled levels, due to the after effects of a mild cme that arrived in the early hours of this morning. Active region 1302 has remained in a quieter state over the last 48 hours, The leader spot has seperated from the trailing spot and the trailing spot now has monster sized filaments connecting it with sunspot 1305 (see image below). Sunspot 1305 has rotated to a geo--effective position and C class flaring is likely. There have been several C class flares and one M class flare from 1302. Late on 27/09 a C6.4 flare was responsible for a bright cme, part of it will pass us late on 30/09 or early on 01/10. Minor storming is likely during the passage. The most important thing to do while looking for aurora is to allow your eyes to adjust to the darkness. Don't use any ciggy lighters or torches, even make sure the courtesy light in the car is disabled so you don't flood your eyes when you open the door. It takes me around 10 minutes to adjust, I'll use that time to track star constellations.

There's loads of different data and maps out there all of it visually stimulating, but unfortunately all of it is either outdated or just not reliable enough. A lot of the short term aurora forecasts as well as the nict magnetosphere simulation are based on ace satellite data which is just too unreliable to paint an accurate picture, in particular the wind density reading which is quite an important perimeter. For that reason using the magnetometer is the best way to be confident that something has happened or is happening in the skies around you. The deviation threshold's I mention are not scientifically backed in any way, these are numbers derived from my own observations of aurorae since becoming interested in the subject. Not a fan of the Mail but they have published an article featuring a pic of the aurora seen from Buckinghamshire. It gives a sense of how bright it was, managing to punch through the light pollution. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2042428/Best-auroras-seen-Britain-thanks-huge-solar-flares.html