GeorgeWX

Both flux (110) and sunspot number (62) are rising in response to the return of old sunspot 1402 as well as other newly formed active regions. Fast growing sunspot 1416 located near centre disk decided to calm down after 3 days of rapid expansion. There has only been C class flaring from this region and this is likely to continue, there remains potential for M class flaring from 1416. AR1417 still comprises of only small spots but the total count is getting larger. Around a dozen C-class flares from this inconspicuous region since the last update, the largest at C8. Further C class flaring likely. 1418 is a newly forming region to the east of 1416 and has been quiet so far. 1419 is the new number assigned to old sunspot 1402. During the last rotation about a month ago, this sunspot was responsible for multiple flares, some of them powerful. It was also responsible for two mid-latitude geomagnetic storms. The areal coverage of the sunspot has decreased since it's previous transit but clearly remains a magnetically complex region. There has been regular C class flaring which is likely to continue and a good chance of M class flares, possibly even X class. New region 1420 is located south of 1419 and has been quiet so far. Both of the previously mentioned filament eruptions (look to 09/02 and 10/02 updates) may brush past earth on valentines day. There is a lot of disagreement between forecasters about whether we will feel any effects from these blasts because of cme direction and source of the eruption(s). I think the first eruption will arrive with a stronger punch than the second, said punch will not be strong however with potential for only minor storm periods making auroral activity likely for 57N+ and possible for 54N+. There is a high chance of one of more earth directed cme's sometime during the next 7 day period so more aurora spotting opportunities may just be round the corner. Today's sun

The sunspot number has risen slightly to 33, solar flux at 111. Newly numbered sunspot group 1416 continues to undergo rapid development. For most of today it has been bubbling with B and low C class flares, one of (B9.9) was concurrent with a visible CME on Lasco c2 earlier this evening, this sunspot region is currently well positioned for earth directed activity. As more imagery of the eruption comes in the source can be confirmed as well as speed and direction. The source of the eruption mentioned on last night's update was an unstable filament at the front edge of old sunspot 1407. This region has now been numbered 1417 by NOAA. Movie showing the eastern side of sun and how fast 1416 has developed over the last 48 hours. AR1416.mpg AR1416.wmv Today's sun

100 is a bit of a benchmark isn't it, considering that the baseline for flux during minimum is 65 and flux at solar max around 200 to 250, anything below 100 as you are approaching solar max does concern some people. The two days below 100 shouldn't impact monthly or smoothed flux values that much. I'm not to bothered myself, I'm hopeful that the flux will hit or pass 160 after 1402 reappears.

The sunspot number did manage to hover above ground zero at 28, solar flux recorded at 8pm was 99. Old sunspot 1407 looks to now be fully over the eastern limb and viewable from earth's position, there appears to be only 2 or 3 distinguishable spots on the HD quality images but there is a large patch of active magnetism around the region, therefore the potential for growth exists. The most recent Lasco C2 image is showing some cme activity that might be from this region (pic below), there is a chance that this cme is coming from old AR1402 behind the limb or even a spotless region on the earthside but my hunch is it has come from 1407. On today's sun image this region is labelled 'New1' as it will be designated a new number from NOAA tomorrow. A newly formed active region in the southern hemisphere put on a fair bit of weight during the last 24 hours, C class flaring is likely and M class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours particularly if the areal coverage extends. (labelled New2). Today's sun A cme from 1407?

Geomagnetic activity returned to quiet/unsettled levels last night after the second brief minor storm disturbance. Last night's LDE flare from sunspot group 1410 topped out at C7.2, the resulting eruption was surprisingly small. 1410 has now disappeared over the limb and as a result the sunspot number is crashing. Today's sn is 24 thanks mainly to a small region trailing AR1410 and two almost invisible regions in the southern hemisphere. The chance of a spotless day being recorded is small as old sunspot region 1407 is due to appear over the limb during the next 24 hours. Trailing behind that by 2-3 days is AR1402, still alive and kicking and hopefully will be a decent size when it emerges. Solar flux recorded at 8pm comes in at 97, the lowest in quite some time. It's all sounding doom and gloom at the moment with low solar activity but I am reassured by the recent M and low X class flaring and dense cme's that have took place during the previous 27 day rotation, things should pick up a bit once old AR1402 emerges. Today's sun

Geomagnetic activity still continues at active levels with two short periods of minor storming since 20:30, the second of the two occurring just 20 minutes ago. Aurora would have been very briefly visible across most of Scotland but I expect any display tonight to be rather faint so crystal clear skies will be necessary to see this one, also factor in LP from moonlight. I've also lso been watching the x-ray flux closely over the last couple of hours, it has been rising slowly the whole time suggesting a large and bright cme is lifting off the sun. The culprit is 1410, located near the western limb. A slow moving cme from this location is unlikely to be geo-effective. The (very faint) cme resulting from yesterday's M1 flare should miss earth completely. Long duration event (LDE) in progress

A minor storm level disturbance has just been recorded on the UK magnetometer. The cause of this is a higher than normal wind speed (500km/h) combined with a strong southward Bz and a 'very slightly' enhanced stream of energetic particles flowing within the wind. A period of active geomagnetic conditions is now underway, at the moment it may just be a brief disturbance and not warrant any kind of UK aurora warning but if that does change, I'll pop back on to update.

As I somewhat expected, solar activity ground to a halt after the departure of 1402. 1410 and sidekick 1413 have remained very quiet since the last update, that was up until around 8pm this evening. In progress is a M1+ class flare, the source looks to be 1410. It will be an hour or two before we know if there is a cme. If so then another few hours to work out direction. Old sunspot group 1402 still identifies as a large active region on the sun's farside, it should appear over the limb on Sunday or perhaps Monday. Graph llustrating the very recent drop in sn and solar flux. Today's sun

Remember this like it was yesterday. I was on my hols at the time in a wee caravan in Stranraer, and I think it was only supposed to be something like a 70% eclipse from there. Anyway, about a half hour before the big moment, thick clouds rolled in and it became almost a non event. Sure it got a little duller for a couple of minutes but nothing else. The tv rolling in the background was showing a pretty spectacular sight only 4 or 5 hundred miles away though! Cheers for sharing Mr D

Solar activity is low and there has been almost no flare activity at all since the last update. 1410 retains it's size and the small cluster of sunspots to the south of 1410 have now been numbered 1413. Growth continues around this newly formed region. The CH has retained it's size since my previous post and was earth facing today. I still expect unsettled to active conditions sometime during 3/02 and 4/02 when it's high speed wind stream passes earth. The large coronal hole makes top story on today's spaceweather.com and says NOAA are forecasting a 15% chance of aurora on 3/02 or 4/02. NOAA's more detailed nightly forecast goes for quiet to unsettled (kp2-3). Most other forecasts go for unsettled. Todays sun If my mind serves correctly, the earliest predictions on sc24 was for a super strong cycle, then downgraded when the minimum was stretching and downgraded a couple more times during the slumber before a slight upgrade well into sc24. To be honest I think Hathaway's guess is as good as anyone's! As for sc25, it could be either a quiet or active cycle, we just don't know enough about old sol to accurately predict future cycles!

We remain under transient cme effects seven hours after it's arrival. The peak planetery kp so far has been 3, with an active period (k4) between 1900 and 2030. Soho recorded the peak wind speed at 440km/s and peak wind density at 46p/cm3. Looking ahead to the next few days solar activity is likely to be low. AR1410 remains quiet but there is a small cluster of spots forming to the immediate south of 1410. Activity from this region could pick up if growth continues. We also have a trans-equitorial coronal hole (pic below) that will be earth facing in the next 24-36 hours. This ch has continually grown over the past 3 rotations and is now of a size where our geomagnetic field may experience unsettled or active conditions (kp3-4) when it's wind stream arrives on 3/02 or possibly 4/02. The northern edge of this coronal hole borders AR1410 so a little potential for stormier conditions should the sunspot region become more active. The farside of the sun looks very quiet indeed, we could be seeing a one to two week lull in activity if 1410 remains quiet. Then hopefully 1402 will re-emerge and pick things up again. Coronal hole Today's sun

A magnetic sudden impulse was recorded at Ace satellite around one hour ago and it is what looks like the edge of the cme related to the farside X1 flare brushing past. Effects should remain minimal. The Bz initially tilted south on impact but quickly tracked to a strong north position where it remains for the moment. Peak field strength - 12nT and wind speed 420km/s. Peak planetary kp of 4-5 likely should a persistant southward Bz occur.

Noaa;s nightly space weather update confirms that the rise in activity late last night was due to coronal hole effects. Late this afternoon departing sunspot 1402, the region responsible for pretty much all of the recent flares erupted once again, along with the bright cme was a X1.7 flare LDE still in progress and likely to last 12-15 hours. 1402 was already over the limb when flaring commenced but nonetheless a S2 proton storm is now underway. In terms of cme direction I don't expect there to be any earth directed component from this eruption but a passing shockwave can't be ruled out. The result of which if it were to occur would be a brief period of active conditions and not enough to warrant aurora alerts. Noaa don't rule out a hit from this cme stating further analysis will be required to establish potential geo-effectiveness. Newly numbered sunspot 1410, now fully visible on the earth side of the sun is a reasonable size (250mths) but remains quiet for now. Earth facing 1408 located slap bang centre disk holds a simple structure and has remained stable during it's transit.. Lasco c2 gif movie of X1.7 flare cme Click to play. Today's sun

Yep your assumption is spot on. All of the short range forecasts lean on the Ace satellite data for their predictions and can overcook expected earth effects. Current data suggests we are under the influence of a weak coronal hole stream, wind speed is up a little and mag field up slightly too. Auroral activity is a little further south than usual at the moment due to the ch influence but at present theres no alert for visible aurora from any UK latitudes below 58N.

We're now getting in some more reliable data showing cme wind speed and density, the current geomagnetic storm is very different to the one just passed a few days ago, so I'l compare the two below. Current storm: Peak wind speed: 780 km/s Peak mag field strength: 35nT Peak wind density: 16 protons cm/3 Max kp: 5 (so far) Jan 22 storm Peak wind speed: 490 km/s Peak mag field strength: 39nT Peak wind density: 80 protons cm/3 Max kp: 5 The cme driving the ongoing geomagnetic storm arrived with a very low wind density at only 16 pcm/3 (currently around 7 pcm/3) and a rapidly weakening magnetic field strength compared to the 22/01 storm but does have a relatively high wind speed (currently 600 km/s). It is the high wind speed that is driving this geomagnetic storm, much like a coronal hole wind stream. I don't expect severe geomagnetic storming tonight but the minor storm levels we are experiencing the now will extend late into tonight with a small chance of major storm periods (kp7) should a sustained southward IMF occur.

Yup and it isn't bouncing back so quickly this time, could be a good sign. (ever the optimist I am!) For anyone unsure what we are talking about, the graph below containing Ace data should help. Ignore everything except the red line, this line represents the Bz component of the magnetic field and is one hour upwind from earth so a little advanced warning. When Bz readings are above zero they are known as positive or northward, below zero is known as negative or southward. A southward Bz recorded at Ace normally results in a period where magnetic reconnection at earth between our magnetic field and the field of the solar wind is more likely. The door is opened and protons/electrons come flooding in causing magnetometers to show a decrease in the field strength and sparking aurora further south than usual. This graph updates every few minutes, click to view. If the skies were clearer here in Ayrshire I would be heading out by now as I'm expecting an aurora viewing opportunity very soon.

Yam I'm trying to help you out by telling you that the simulation thing you constantly post is based entirely on the data recorded by the ace satellite, the only time all the data on ace is correct is when geomagnetic activity is quiet, and the satellite isn't getting pummeled by a cme. When a cme passes, the wind density parameter gives erroneous measurements, this makes the Nict simulation inaccurate whilst under cme effects. During a proton storm, the wind speed, wind density and temperature all give incorrect values making the Nict simulation thing about as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike. Excellent, thanks for that. 800+ km/s sure is quick for the incoming solar wind and will do it's bit to influence the geomagnetic storm. The NOAA kp4 rating is pretty high considering the dominant northward magnetic orientation. It did flip south for around 20 minutes and is now reverberating northward, this process should 'hopefully' repeat further and if so, it will be the precursor to stronger geomagnetic storming and uk latitude aurora. Don't forget that the official kp level during the very recent geomagnetic storm peaked at 5, yet auroral activity was visible in Norfolk. The reason for the 'undervaluation' is due to NOAA magnetometer placements (8 in North America and 2 the rest of the world) all 10 stations combining measurements to create the planetery kp index. Worth remembering, it doesn't write off the viability of the noaa kp scale but as geomagnetic activity gets attracted to the night side of earth it can cause slight anomalies. The weather isn't looking too great for most tonight, maybe a clearing for eire and some gaps appearing here and there. Visibility here in Ayrshire over the last couple of hours has been right down below 200m so not much hope here but who knows, might get lucky!

Too early to say, I would make sure the camera batteries are charging though. No doubt this is a powerful cme, if the Bz did turn southward/negative (which it easily could at any point) then storming at kp6-8 would almost certainly be the result. This geomagnetic storm should last right through this evening, it will take twists and turns as the night wears on. Still trying to work out the cme arrival speed, would 900km/s be close (maths was never my best subject!) 1 million miles in 31 minutes = roughly 2 million mph speed or 3.2 million kmh or 900km/s ???

Travelling a distance of 1 million miles in roughly 31 minutes, how fast is that? A typical cme takes 50 minutes to cover the 1 million miles between the ace satellite and earth. The answer will tell us the speed of the cme that has just struck. The uk magnetometer detected the arrival of the cme with a SSC measuring roughly 55nT. The ace satellite has now been recording the magnetic strength and orientation of the incoming solar wind for one hour. The Bz component tipped northward on impact and remains tightly north. This isn't good for anyone wanting a big geomagnetic storm and aurora. The strong northward Bz component should hopefully loosen off a little in the coming hours. Fingers crossed!!! Also to add - Protons on the rise even further as a result of the cme impact, we could surpass the S4 threshold in the next hour or so (currently S3).

Good shout Yam. Ace detected the arrival of the cme around 10 minutes ago, this means that land based magnetometers around the world will detect a sudden storm commencement in the next 45 minutes. Initial signs suggest a possible strong geomagnetic storm but it's far too early to say for sure, another half hour of data from Ace will paint a better picture of expected earth effects. The cme arrival prediction time was almost nailed perfectly by Nasa, maybe 10 minutes out. Yam, the pretty looking magnetosphere simulation that you always refer to will be inaccurate as is based exclusively on data supplied by ace, including solar wind speed and density. Both of these parameters return false readings during proton events.

Just to add that there's no geomagnetic storming anticipated over the UK tonight as solar activity went very quiet after the 19/01 cme. Tomorrow evening should herald some aurora viewing opportunities provided the incoming cme arrives early enough for UK viewing. Post updated to add Lasco movies of the eruption, both up to 11am. (click to play) Lasco c2 Lasco c3

Wasn't it a brilliant display last night, it was about 2am before I called it a night and I've been paying dearly for it today! Thanks everyone for adding the the pics and reports, it's great to see more people catch these displays. As much as I'd like to rabble on about last night's display, there is a much more interesting occurrence underway. As mentioned above there was an M-8.7 flare around 4am this morning coming from 1402, In terms of cme density it probably matches the strong cme of 19/01 that gave us last nights display. Where this more recent cme differs though, is the projected take off speed of 1500km/h+, compared to 900 km/h from the cme that just passed. Like the cme of 19/01, the eruption related to the M-8 flare is heading north of the ecliptic plane (due to the position of the active region), but will still impact us as soon as tomorrow evening, I expect the resulting geomagnetic storm to be more intense than the one that occurred yesterday. A high probability of storming at kp6/7 levels with potential for severe storming kp8+ due to the expected high wind speed on impact. Also underway is a S3 proton storm due to the powerful blast, the strongest proton storm to hit earth since 2005. Lasco c3 of the departing cme cloud (up to 05.30) And here's a still image from the same camera getting bombarded with protons soon after the movie above stops. M-8 LDE recorded on x-ray flux.

Possibly, those southward Bz's recorded at ace translate to a more intense geomagnetic storm, If I was in the Lakes or Newcastle i'd definitely be filling the flask and heading out asap.

We have been under cme effects since around 6am this morning, from that time until 5pm the magnetic orientation (Bz) of the wind has been predominatly northwards, which suppresses the incoming stream. Since 5pm it has turned to a southward Bz, gradually breaking down earth's defenses and sparking a geomagnetic storm. 'Based on a UK magnetometer, auroral activity may be visible as far south as the Scottish border and NI border. The opportunity may extend further south in the coming hour as Nasa's ace (1hr upstream) has been recording constant sothward Bz since 20.50. Good luck to anyone going out for a look. Nasa ace Bz http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_6h.html UK magnetometer http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ snapshot 21.45

On last night's noaa update they changed the forecasted arrival time of the main cme to late on 22/01 with possible minor storming (kp5/G1) after arrival, all other forecasts that get updated daily remain unchanged. Around 4am this morning ace recorded a small sudden storm commencement. The low wind speed indicates this may have been a shockwave from the large venus directed cme of 16/01. Solar activity since the strong M3 flare has been low with only occasional and minor C class flaring. Regions 1401 and 1402 still retain magnetic structures capable of further M class flares. Today's sun showing 1401/2