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GeorgeWX

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Everything posted by GeorgeWX

  1. Noaa's nightly forecast gives initial analysis to this evening's M class flare. They estimate the speed of the erupting cloud to be 1200-1400km/s and anticipate it's arrival late tomorrow. In terms of earth effects they anticipate minor to major storming with severe storm periods. A very open ended geomagnetic storm prediction once again. Nasa's gsfc predicts the impact will occur on Monday near 18:00. Right in between the two times is my guess. Late AM or early PM on Monday. Looking at available imagery it's looking like there is a dense component of the eruption heading our way. If so, higher wind density = brighter and more colourful aurora (blues, reds etc). It could be a good one. Let's not forget that this cme is likely to arrive at the tail end of the cme related to yesterdays M6 flare (gets confusing now!). I have a strong feeling that this second event will arrive with more energy compared to the first with major to severe storm periods during the cme passage and a likely planetery Kp of 7 or higher. Edit: Within the last few hours we see two new sunspot regions emerging over the eastern limb. Today's sun at 22:45
  2. Yet another strong flare from 1429 at 5.30pm tonight, this one measuring M 8.4. A super bright cme can be seen departing at the moment. It will be a few more hours before any prediction can be made as to potential geomagnetic storm severity but from what's available to me it looks like a near perfect direct impact, no question about it. What I would like to try and establish is whether the core of the cme is earth directed.
  3. Wow! There have been a few occasions in the past where we have witnessed solar tsunamis but this one is definitely one of the most prominent to date. The analysis of the cme that's en-route and it's anticipated earth effects has differing opinions between different forecasters. On NOAA's detailed nightly forcast they initially went for kp4-7 but then corrected this to kp4-9. With a prediction that wide It's going to be hard for them to be wrong. A few other space weather forecasters are following NOAA's steps in keeping the prediction wide open. Belgium space obs go for a minimum of kp7 and arrival late 11/03 or early 12/03 (they are alone in this late prediction). Noaa anticipate the cme arrival during the first half of Sunday. GSWC agrees with this window of time. My initial prediction yesterday morning was for a Sunday AM arrival time and a minimum of kp6. I doubt we will see kp9, but a 7 is possible and 8 would be very nice indeed! It all hangs on when storming occurs and peaks. If it peaks over our skies then the chance exists for visible auroral activity across all of the UK. Exactly how far south it becomes visible can be predicted with a more reliable accuracy soon after impact. Lasco c3 movie showing the earth directed cme. The noise on the imagery is caused by protons striking the sensor, it affects the ability to detect faint cme's (like this one). There are however several signatures confirming that this is a full halo event. The sunspot that has recently appeared over the limb has been numbered 1432. It was the recently responsible for a C9.7 flare. C-class flaring is likely and M-class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours. 1429 has gradually split more and more apart since it's flaring episode began several days ago. There remains potential for X-class flaring particularly from around the leading penumbra. Today's sun Several days ago I gave a brief mention to a large mid-latitude coronal hole that would be earth facing this weekend. I was well off the mark with the date on that one probably due to my attention being with the high solar activity from elsewhere. This large CH 'will' be earth facing on Tuesday and Wednesday and it's wind stream will arrive on Friday/Saturday next week. Minor-moderate storm periods are likely during the wind influence with a planetary kp of 5. Sunspot 1432 is located very close to this CH.
  4. Both visibility and cloud cover have been good around my neck of the woods so I had to go out and see the table scraps of this geomagnetic storm. There was visible aurora from here in Ayrshire between 19:45 and 20:15 as a green band rising to around 25-30 degrees above the horizon. It didn't move much during the observation period. Current data from the UK magnetometer suggests that the quiet green glow should be visible above the northern horizon down to 54N. Bz on Ace has been mostly neutral with positive interludes so the peak southerly extent of tonight's aurora is unlikely to be visible at latitudes below 54N, assuming conditions remain unchanged through the latter part of this evening.
  5. Earlier on I was checking out various k-indices for the current geomagnetic storm. Between 07:00 and 10:00, the BGS magnetometer in Devon recorded K9. This is as high as the k-scale goes leaving no doubt that we are in the wake of quite a large geomagnetic disruption. We remain under minor geomagnetic storm conditions but there are now clear signs that the cme has finally passed and we are under the effects of it's trailing high speed wind stream. A bit like the vacuum effect felt after an express train hurtles past when standing at the platform. Through the course of the afternoon the IMF has gradually weakened and the negative Bz has slackened off to a mostly neutral state. The solar wind speed is also gradually dimming but should remain above 500km/s this evening (currently 600km/s). This higher than normal wind speed will be enough for minor storm episodes provided that there are sustained periods of negative Bz observed on Ace. The southerly extent of visible auroral activity under such conditions would be around 54N (Lakes, Yorkshire etc). The likely characteristics of tonight's aurora from the UK would be a quiet band or arc that's green in colour, very different to what the Americans would have seen only a few hours ago! This forecast is likely to change in the event of the IMF strength (Bt) rising above 10nT but at the moment I don't expect that to happen. Edit: The current UK magnetometer measurement (-60nT) is indicating that auroral activity is further south than usual right now as we draw closer to our night hours. With a neutral Bz recorded on Ace the 'nT' may linger somewhat at around this value or if a persistant -Bz occurs in the next one to two hours there will be a small chance of minor sub-storm activity making aurora visible on the horizon at 53N. This additional part only applies until the UK magnetometer closes the gap between the black and blue line to under -20nT. I really like the way this guy makes a valiant effort in keeping things as simple as possible, it's too easy for the masses to get lost in all the solar related jargon that get's tossed about these days.
  6. I was asking myself 'what if the recent storm period had occurred around our dark hours instead of over the USA, how big would the negative deviation be on the Scottish magnetometer? And how far south over the UK would the aurora have went? To find the answer I need to find out what the peak negative deviation (dst) was on a magnetometer that is placed at a similar magnetic latitude as the uk device. A good candidate would be a magnetometer located in Newport, Oregon as the storm peaked close to midnight PST.. The H- component (top) gives us the comparative figure we need. It looks to be somewhere around -400nT. So the answer to my 'what if' would be that there would have been aurora overhead across Scotland and northern England and visible in the northern sky from all UK locations and even across the channel. As the recent storm peaked quite close to our noon meridian, we only detected around -200nT as geomagnetic storming is always weaker on the day-side of earth.
  7. The most recent magnetometer data shows our magnetic field is now in the latter stages of recovery after a period of severe storming, but storm conditions (min Kp5) are likely to continue as Ace has recorded -Bz for almost the full day. We have no more information on how the wind speed is performing since the 9am update but it's safe to assume that it will be very fast. I would not be surprised if middling US states like California or Nevada got to see some kind of auroral activity in the northern skies. Once the yanks have got up and had their weetabix the pics will surely come flooding in. Edit: Not weetabix, its golden grahams.
  8. Looking at this morning's M6 LDE flare, the culprit was indeed 1429. This AR is positioned very nicely near the centre of the sun, any cme activity around centre disk tends to be aimed well in our direction. There is a cme as a result of the flare visible on stereo B imagery as a wide eruption (N/S) It takes off at a fast pace probably between 1200km/s and 1500km/s. Lasco c2 is showing a bright component of the eruption heading northwards but there is very likely to be a cloud of matter heading right for us. If the estimated speed is correct then we should expect a spell of at least moderate geomagnetic storming (Kp6) upon it's arrival during the first half of Sunday. 1429 has shown a reduction in areal coverage since this morning's M6 flare but remains large and capable of further strong flares. Today's sun
  9. Still catching up here!!! Had a peek at the available data on the current storm and there is an interesting development that has come to my attention. As can be seen on the graph below, we are now under even faster solar wind conditions. the data up to 9am shows a wind speed spike at 8am and is bouncing around 950km/s. This sort of wind velocity is not going to subside completely before UK dark hours so there's a high confidence of more geomagnetic storming tonight. Don't forget about that big unknown, the Bz and it's potential influence. It's something that nobody can forecast, especially events like this one where we probably have 2 cme's inter-mingling with one another as they pass by.
  10. I didn't, last thing I remember was sitting down with a brew around half past nine, then I must've dozed off because next thing I knew it was 4am, burnt out from a couple of hectic days! Looking back on the graphs it's clear to see that this geomagnetic storm is still rolling. Periods of negative Bz started to appear on the ace graph soon after 1am and as a result, by 3am we were experiencing moderate to major geomagnetic storming over the UK. At 5am the Bz element of the IMF turned strongly southward and has stayed there since, the result being periods of major to severe storming over the UK. Strong negative deviation is now apparent on magnetometers around the world and this weakening magnetic field component is a signal of very strong geomagnetic storming and the auroral activity that comes with it will be visible at mid-latitude locations on the night side of the earth. A fair to good chance that this disturbance will continue for at least 12-18 hours before completely subsiding, so the possibility remains for minor or moderate geomagnetic storm episodes once it gets dark in the UK. Also to note is a flare measuring M6 from sunspot 1429 this morning, it's been mentioned that there is a cme released during the event but I know little else as I've not seen any iimages as yet.
  11. Some encouraging signs looking at the trend of Bz between 20:20 and now. No longer a strong northward orientation, also a strong but momentary southward spike at 20:40, more of them thanks!
  12. The information on my last post with regards to UK latitude aurora potential has changed a little bit now! Based on current conditions, southern regions of the UK are potentially back in the fold again as a result of the IMF more than doubling in strength at 19:20. We have a strong positive Bz in correlation with the increased IMF strength but should any sustained period of southward magnetic orientation (-Bz) occur will now have enough energy to draw the aurora even further south. I'll repost this little Bz graph as we're on a new page, bear in mind that you have a 30 minute lead time during periods of -Bz. Link to UK magnetomer http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ Simple guide to using the magnetometer for spotting aurora. http://forum.netweat...28#entry2138328 Ace graph showing IMF http://www.swpc.noaa..._SWEPAM_2h.html
  13. Fresh data on the current cme passage has come through so we can paint a fuller picture of what's passing us. Peak mag field strength: 40nT Peak wind speed: 830km/s Peak wind density: 35 p/cm3 It's likely that the current solar wind speed is between 680 and 700km/s, also to note is the rapid decay of the IMF and wind density despite wind speed remaining high. Also that pesky Bz has persisted northward (positive) for most of the storm up to now, we have seen one period of neutral Bz that lasted around one hour and helped intensify geomagnetic storming, and two brief periods of negative Bz lasting less than 20 minutes that contributed to sub-storm activity. If geomagnetic conditions persist at current levels during the coming hours, then aurora may be visible as far south as 55N, particularly after periods of neutral Bz are observed on Ace. If we manage to see any brief periods of negative Bz on Ace this evening then aurora may become visible down to 54N during the resultant sub-storm activity. Any sustained periods of -Bz (above 30 minutes) this evening and this opportunity will extend southward and aurora may be visible from 53N. I put the chances of seeing NL from the far south of England at just 20% this evening. This is based on current conditions, the downgrading of wind speed as well as low density and weak IMF. How I got 1150km/s earlier today I don't know, my maths isn't the best but it still sounds right... travelling 950,000 miles in 21 minutes, converted to km/s. I'm sure the answer I got was around 1150km/s. Edit: to add small widget showing Bz data from the Ace satellite, this should update every minute or two.
  14. I forgot to mention that I checked out the hourly k-indices for the UK magnetometer that contributes to the official planetery K index (located in Devon). Three periods of k6 between 11am and 2pm, the 3pm value of k5 was just below the k6 threshold. This means that despite the fact we had a strong north Bz (so far) and despite the fact that we were located right on the noon meridian (where activity is weakest), a moderate geomagnetic storm is still being detected from the ground station in Devon.
  15. Damn right it is some speed, we haven't seen a cme impact this fast for a good few years now, because of that rapid speed we should see a reasonably long duration disturbance. The second eruption (X1) happened just one hour after the first (X5), and was probably travelling at around 1000km/s compared to the estimated 2000km/s for the first eruption. This morning's cme driven shock was the first disturbance arriving.. It's unlikely we will detect the second cme arriving because of current geomagnetic conditions, certainly not in any real time data. It's treading a little bit out my depth but there is the possibility of the second cme being driven forward by the alreadfy departed first blast, meaning the two events do arrive as one. It suppose it's plausible but you would need to approach someone more knowledgeable to get clarification on that. It does look to me like Ace is still doing it's best to send us data (bless it), it doesn't appear to be in standby mode but most of it's sensors will be affected by the passing radiation storm. I kinda get the impression that you are attempting to play this one down i.e things are rubbish and if this other cme arrives then the northern uk might get lucky. The show is far from over and it doesnt even get dark in the UK for another 4 hours or so, screw the other cme, the one that's hitting us the now is probably good enough. Tons of energy battering our little blue ball, a good battle so far but the tide can turn at any moment. According to the only instrument that looks to be in operation on the Ace satellite, we have been under a mostly neutral Bz since 14:17.
  16. I will only be able to say one way or the other with confidence at around 5 or 6 pm (shortly before dark), what I will say is the odds are well in your favour so be ready to move. We have a strong geomagnetic storm now underway due to the shock from the front edge of a fast and powerful cme. Ace recorded the Bz tilting strongly north after impact (bad news for mid-latitude aurora) but I do expect this to eventually shift south for periods once we enter the main phase of the cme passage (next 1 to 4 hours). Even brief periods of negative Bz will be good enough for intense geomagnetic storming at middle latitudes. I penned down some rough calculations and the speed of the impact was around 1150km/s, flippin quick!!!! Here is a magnetometer snapshot demonstrating the effects of a strong north Bz. Bear in mind that we are on the day-side of this storm, locations opposite the noon meridian will be experiencing severe to extreme geomagnetic storming as a result of the impact. As the day wears on the uk magnetometer should gradually record stronger storming.
  17. Data on Ace suggests a strong cme impact at 10:43am. The response time of land based magnetometers will roughly tell us the speed of the cme. Arrival likely beteen 11:05 and 11:10.
  18. Spot on Kar, geomagnetic conditions at the moment are active to minor storm over the UK. Negative deviation on the UK magnetometer is -38nT (at 23.30) and is persisting at this level. Maximum negative deviation so far during UK dark hours was -65nT at 8.30 pm and was brief. Thanks for the NW map Shug
  19. A true statement, I've lost count of the number of times that cloud has moved in and stole the show. My advice at the moment is to hang fire on that, all it would take is a reasonable sub-storm to draw the aurora south by a couple hundred miles. I wrote a simple to understand guide on using the magnetometer to work out if the aurora is near you on a previous page of this thread, you can read it here. NOAA's nightly is out and boy it's a big one (lots of words), but they have completely failed in my opinion. There is no mention whatsoever of the second cme shock observed today and they attribute the first cme arrival (3.30am) to the X1 flare of 5/03. No explanation of why the solar wind shot up to 580km/s, not even acknowledging that it happened, very poor. My guess is they decided early in the day that the first cme impact was the X1 and published analysis stating so, then when realising they might be wrong they decide to stick with it to save face and avoid admitting they are wrong. Just a possibility as it's happened before. Alternative link to NOAA's solar and geophysical activity report for March 07 here
  20. Yep that damn full moon, it'll be in the way for the rest of this week, I think towards the end of the week it will rise later in the evening. Tomorrow's geomagnetic storm should bring aurora bright enough to overpower moonlight, tonight it really will be a big problem to anyone going out for a look. Well now we know that the second cme (X1) arrived at 12pm today, a little earlier than what would be ideal for us in the UK. We have virtually no mechanism available for advanced warning of favourable conditions (as we would normally have) so it's all down to what the magnetometer tells us. At the moment aurora may be visible to 55N and this opportunity should continue to exist for a few hours yet (speculation). It is possible that this opportunity could extend southward to 53N in the coming 3-4 hours (optimism), the only way to know is to keep a close eye on the magnetometer as all other data sources are pretty much useless. Tomorrow should bring even more intense geomagnetic storming upon the arrival of the cme related to the X5 flare, fingers crossed for an afternoon arrival time! NOAA's detailed analysis and space weather forecast at 22:00, it'll be a cracker!
  21. Confirmation of a second cme impact at 12.00 GMT. This is the arrival of the cme released during the X1 flare on 5/03.
  22. And this radiation storm is causing problems with the data recorded on Ace, it means that any further cme impacts will be much harder to detect until conditions settle. I said earlier today that the cme detected by Ace at 3:30am was probably the cloud relating to the M2 flare because of low wind speed. Data is now trickling in from another Nasa satellite that strongly suggests the X1 flare cme has arrived. Data is patchy but you can see that the solar wind speed has shot up from 430km/s to 580km/s in a short space of time.
  23. Ahh good they agree with me! I see on their website they refer to a relatively new cme prediction tool. Now there's no doubt that this cme will hit, but there has been so many occasions in the last few months where Enlil was well off the mark, both with cme direction and anticipated wind speed/density. I do hope they refine it to improve accuracy but for the now I don't use the data it offers due to it's reliability. NOAA have posted their prediction at 15.18 and go for KP7, they believe that the cme will impact tomorrow 'early morning GMT'. If they are correct then it implies that the cme is travelling at more than 2000km/s... From the sun to earth in 24 hours is a real rareity. On this morning's post I suggested a likely planetery KP of 7 or 8 during the passage of the X5 flare cme, It's worth mentioning that a KP9 is possible especially if the storm peaks during dark hours in the US, where the majority of magnetometers responsible for the 'planetery KP index' are located.
  24. Lasco c2 and c3 movies showing the cme relating to the X5 flare speeding away. Lasco c2 (900kb) Lasco c3 (2.8mb) And today's sun The arrival time of this morning's cme shines light on one aspect of forecasting aurora, that an anticipated cme can arrive at 4am UK time with moderate storming (good enough for UK latitude aurora) and yet die down by the following evening. The western half of Canada and North West US states would have seen a brilliant display of NL as it peaked during their night hours but we here in the UK missed out. The same could happen with the next anticipated cme. Putting that aside, if the cme from the X5 flare hits us during tomorrow afternoon or early evening, then that's near enough perfect for us in the UK as the storm is likely to peak some time during our dark hours. If this peak occurs four hours either side of midnight UK time, then I expect all UK latitudes to see aurora provided that considerations are made to weather and light pollution where you are.
  25. Very exciting stuff this morning, as mentioned above we have a moderate geomagnetic storm in progress and some recent severe flaring from monster region 1429. Ace detected the arrival of a cme at 3.30am this morning. Statistics below. Peak mag field - 20nT Peak wind speed - 430km/s Peak wind density - 26 p/cm3 This event has arrived with a relatively low wind speed which leans toward this being just the cme from the M2 flare arriving. If that is correct then we should see another cme shock recorded at ace by the end of the day, the second shock from the X1 flare cme. It has also been an incredible 24 hour period in terms of flare activity and flare intensity from 1429. At 12.20am a flare reaching X5.4 on the x-ray flux was measured, and a second strong flare measuring X1.3 was observed just one hour later. Looking at SDO and a handful of stereo cor2 images, both flares have eruptions and both eruptions look to have decent earthward components. The eruption relating to the X5 flare is probably travelling well in excess of 1500km/s (fast!) the second eruption at just 1000km/s (still fast!). If my prediction of speed and geo-effectiveness are correct then we should expect this one to arrive tomorrow and impact with a wind speed in excess of 700km/s. We should also see several magnetometers around the world recording severe storm periods throughout the passage with a planetery KP of seven, possibly eight. I expect there to be a long duration geomagnetic storm due to the X1 flare cme eventually arriving late tomorrow or early Friday. Active x-ray flux, mainly due to 'popcorn'sunspot 1429 Edit. Forgot to add that the most recent measurement of AR1429 comes in at 1700 millionths. I need to go look in some books but I suspect this to now be the largest sunspot since at least 2003, possibly 2001.
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