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Everything posted by GeorgeWX

  1. Noaa's nightly forecast gives initial analysis to this evening's M class flare. They estimate the speed of the erupting cloud to be 1200-1400km/s and anticipate it's arrival late tomorrow. In terms of earth effects they anticipate minor to major storming with severe storm periods. A very open ended geomagnetic storm prediction once again. Nasa's gsfc predicts the impact will occur on Monday near 18:00. Right in between the two times is my guess. Late AM or early PM on Monday. Looking at available imagery it's looking like there is a dense component of the eruption heading our way. If so, h
  2. Yet another strong flare from 1429 at 5.30pm tonight, this one measuring M 8.4. A super bright cme can be seen departing at the moment. It will be a few more hours before any prediction can be made as to potential geomagnetic storm severity but from what's available to me it looks like a near perfect direct impact, no question about it. What I would like to try and establish is whether the core of the cme is earth directed.
  3. Wow! There have been a few occasions in the past where we have witnessed solar tsunamis but this one is definitely one of the most prominent to date. The analysis of the cme that's en-route and it's anticipated earth effects has differing opinions between different forecasters. On NOAA's detailed nightly forcast they initially went for kp4-7 but then corrected this to kp4-9. With a prediction that wide It's going to be hard for them to be wrong. A few other space weather forecasters are following NOAA's steps in keeping the prediction wide open. Belgium space obs go for a minimum of kp7 and a
  4. Both visibility and cloud cover have been good around my neck of the woods so I had to go out and see the table scraps of this geomagnetic storm. There was visible aurora from here in Ayrshire between 19:45 and 20:15 as a green band rising to around 25-30 degrees above the horizon. It didn't move much during the observation period. Current data from the UK magnetometer suggests that the quiet green glow should be visible above the northern horizon down to 54N. Bz on Ace has been mostly neutral with positive interludes so the peak southerly extent of tonight's aurora is unlikely to be visible
  5. Earlier on I was checking out various k-indices for the current geomagnetic storm. Between 07:00 and 10:00, the BGS magnetometer in Devon recorded K9. This is as high as the k-scale goes leaving no doubt that we are in the wake of quite a large geomagnetic disruption. We remain under minor geomagnetic storm conditions but there are now clear signs that the cme has finally passed and we are under the effects of it's trailing high speed wind stream. A bit like the vacuum effect felt after an express train hurtles past when standing at the platform. Through the course of the afternoon the IMF h
  6. I was asking myself 'what if the recent storm period had occurred around our dark hours instead of over the USA, how big would the negative deviation be on the Scottish magnetometer? And how far south over the UK would the aurora have went? To find the answer I need to find out what the peak negative deviation (dst) was on a magnetometer that is placed at a similar magnetic latitude as the uk device. A good candidate would be a magnetometer located in Newport, Oregon as the storm peaked close to midnight PST.. The H- component (top) gives us the comparative figure we need. It looks to
  7. The most recent magnetometer data shows our magnetic field is now in the latter stages of recovery after a period of severe storming, but storm conditions (min Kp5) are likely to continue as Ace has recorded -Bz for almost the full day. We have no more information on how the wind speed is performing since the 9am update but it's safe to assume that it will be very fast. I would not be surprised if middling US states like California or Nevada got to see some kind of auroral activity in the northern skies. Once the yanks have got up and had their weetabix the pics will surely come flooding in.
  8. Looking at this morning's M6 LDE flare, the culprit was indeed 1429. This AR is positioned very nicely near the centre of the sun, any cme activity around centre disk tends to be aimed well in our direction. There is a cme as a result of the flare visible on stereo B imagery as a wide eruption (N/S) It takes off at a fast pace probably between 1200km/s and 1500km/s. Lasco c2 is showing a bright component of the eruption heading northwards but there is very likely to be a cloud of matter heading right for us. If the estimated speed is correct then we should expect a spell of at least moderate g
  9. Still catching up here!!! Had a peek at the available data on the current storm and there is an interesting development that has come to my attention. As can be seen on the graph below, we are now under even faster solar wind conditions. the data up to 9am shows a wind speed spike at 8am and is bouncing around 950km/s. This sort of wind velocity is not going to subside completely before UK dark hours so there's a high confidence of more geomagnetic storming tonight. Don't forget about that big unknown, the Bz and it's potential influence. It's something that nobody can forecast, especially
  10. I didn't, last thing I remember was sitting down with a brew around half past nine, then I must've dozed off because next thing I knew it was 4am, burnt out from a couple of hectic days! Looking back on the graphs it's clear to see that this geomagnetic storm is still rolling. Periods of negative Bz started to appear on the ace graph soon after 1am and as a result, by 3am we were experiencing moderate to major geomagnetic storming over the UK. At 5am the Bz element of the IMF turned strongly southward and has stayed there since, the result being periods of major to severe storming over the U
  11. Some encouraging signs looking at the trend of Bz between 20:20 and now. No longer a strong northward orientation, also a strong but momentary southward spike at 20:40, more of them thanks!
  12. The information on my last post with regards to UK latitude aurora potential has changed a little bit now! Based on current conditions, southern regions of the UK are potentially back in the fold again as a result of the IMF more than doubling in strength at 19:20. We have a strong positive Bz in correlation with the increased IMF strength but should any sustained period of southward magnetic orientation (-Bz) occur will now have enough energy to draw the aurora even further south. I'll repost this little Bz graph as we're on a new page, bear in mind that you have a 30 minute lead time durin
  13. Fresh data on the current cme passage has come through so we can paint a fuller picture of what's passing us. Peak mag field strength: 40nT Peak wind speed: 830km/s Peak wind density: 35 p/cm3 It's likely that the current solar wind speed is between 680 and 700km/s, also to note is the rapid decay of the IMF and wind density despite wind speed remaining high. Also that pesky Bz has persisted northward (positive) for most of the storm up to now, we have seen one period of neutral Bz that lasted around one hour and helped intensify geomagnetic storming, and two brief periods of negative B
  14. I forgot to mention that I checked out the hourly k-indices for the UK magnetometer that contributes to the official planetery K index (located in Devon). Three periods of k6 between 11am and 2pm, the 3pm value of k5 was just below the k6 threshold. This means that despite the fact we had a strong north Bz (so far) and despite the fact that we were located right on the noon meridian (where activity is weakest), a moderate geomagnetic storm is still being detected from the ground station in Devon.
  15. Damn right it is some speed, we haven't seen a cme impact this fast for a good few years now, because of that rapid speed we should see a reasonably long duration disturbance. The second eruption (X1) happened just one hour after the first (X5), and was probably travelling at around 1000km/s compared to the estimated 2000km/s for the first eruption. This morning's cme driven shock was the first disturbance arriving.. It's unlikely we will detect the second cme arriving because of current geomagnetic conditions, certainly not in any real time data. It's treading a little bit out my depth but th
  16. I will only be able to say one way or the other with confidence at around 5 or 6 pm (shortly before dark), what I will say is the odds are well in your favour so be ready to move. We have a strong geomagnetic storm now underway due to the shock from the front edge of a fast and powerful cme. Ace recorded the Bz tilting strongly north after impact (bad news for mid-latitude aurora) but I do expect this to eventually shift south for periods once we enter the main phase of the cme passage (next 1 to 4 hours). Even brief periods of negative Bz will be good enough for intense geomagnetic storming
  17. Data on Ace suggests a strong cme impact at 10:43am. The response time of land based magnetometers will roughly tell us the speed of the cme. Arrival likely beteen 11:05 and 11:10.
  18. Spot on Kar, geomagnetic conditions at the moment are active to minor storm over the UK. Negative deviation on the UK magnetometer is -38nT (at 23.30) and is persisting at this level. Maximum negative deviation so far during UK dark hours was -65nT at 8.30 pm and was brief. Thanks for the NW map Shug
  19. A true statement, I've lost count of the number of times that cloud has moved in and stole the show. My advice at the moment is to hang fire on that, all it would take is a reasonable sub-storm to draw the aurora south by a couple hundred miles. I wrote a simple to understand guide on using the magnetometer to work out if the aurora is near you on a previous page of this thread, you can read it here. NOAA's nightly is out and boy it's a big one (lots of words), but they have completely failed in my opinion. There is no mention whatsoever of the second cme shock observed today and they attribu
  20. Yep that damn full moon, it'll be in the way for the rest of this week, I think towards the end of the week it will rise later in the evening. Tomorrow's geomagnetic storm should bring aurora bright enough to overpower moonlight, tonight it really will be a big problem to anyone going out for a look. Well now we know that the second cme (X1) arrived at 12pm today, a little earlier than what would be ideal for us in the UK. We have virtually no mechanism available for advanced warning of favourable conditions (as we would normally have) so it's all down to what the magnetometer tells us. At
  21. Confirmation of a second cme impact at 12.00 GMT. This is the arrival of the cme released during the X1 flare on 5/03.
  22. And this radiation storm is causing problems with the data recorded on Ace, it means that any further cme impacts will be much harder to detect until conditions settle. I said earlier today that the cme detected by Ace at 3:30am was probably the cloud relating to the M2 flare because of low wind speed. Data is now trickling in from another Nasa satellite that strongly suggests the X1 flare cme has arrived. Data is patchy but you can see that the solar wind speed has shot up from 430km/s to 580km/s in a short space of time.
  23. Ahh good they agree with me! I see on their website they refer to a relatively new cme prediction tool. Now there's no doubt that this cme will hit, but there has been so many occasions in the last few months where Enlil was well off the mark, both with cme direction and anticipated wind speed/density. I do hope they refine it to improve accuracy but for the now I don't use the data it offers due to it's reliability. NOAA have posted their prediction at 15.18 and go for KP7, they believe that the cme will impact tomorrow 'early morning GMT'. If they are correct then it implies that the cm
  24. Lasco c2 and c3 movies showing the cme relating to the X5 flare speeding away. Lasco c2 (900kb) Lasco c3 (2.8mb) And today's sun The arrival time of this morning's cme shines light on one aspect of forecasting aurora, that an anticipated cme can arrive at 4am UK time with moderate storming (good enough for UK latitude aurora) and yet die down by the following evening. The western half of Canada and North West US states would have seen a brilliant display of NL as it peaked during their night hours but we here in the UK missed out. The same could happen with the next anticipate
  25. Very exciting stuff this morning, as mentioned above we have a moderate geomagnetic storm in progress and some recent severe flaring from monster region 1429. Ace detected the arrival of a cme at 3.30am this morning. Statistics below. Peak mag field - 20nT Peak wind speed - 430km/s Peak wind density - 26 p/cm3 This event has arrived with a relatively low wind speed which leans toward this being just the cme from the M2 flare arriving. If that is correct then we should see another cme shock recorded at ace by the end of the day, the second shock from the X1 flare cme. It has also been an
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