P-M

There's only a few recent sferics from it - I've been looking at it the past hour and only a few strikes detected so not that electrically charged I'm afraid.

Gone from blue skies to this - is it instability?

I know I am determined to get there next year myself the lucky sod! Question - is the trough the dry / clear bit in the Irish Sea?

They were OK but nothing severe in the slightest. Was good to be woken up by them but I like the violent ones lol

Thanks VP - good info there so cheers. Less pessimism and more optimism then for this afternoon :-)

Thanks matey - a little carrot for me to hang on to for now! I'm glued to the radar so fingers crossed then in that case. Where is Paul Sherman these days is he still on here?

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate. Or have I got that completely wrong? Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement people's posts generate.

I know - I just feel it's too late in the day but never say never mate.

You couldn't make it up - crud all day and yet now blaring sun!

According to Tony over on UKWW the sweet spot if anything does occur!

Cheers NL - fingers crossed!

Would you be able to perhaps mark them on the map or give locations as I am lost with these? Not being funny at all I am just not the best with charts or comparing so it would be interesting to see.

It is hit and miss here - it's not thick cloud cover mind but I think it's going to be enough to scupper the chances later. We'll see though.

I think it's gonna be a dud for the NE there's just too much cloud cover. Happy to be corrected however!

Hi Nick - can you just clarify (sorry if I am being thick) but the main areas at risk are a line from Manchester east so taking north of here out of the equation now?

For anything to happen I'd imagine this crud needs to clear. Sky is currently grey and overcast from this morning's thundery rain. It needs to clear and be done with it!

I like his forecasting usually and to be fair he's an accurate forecaster that's not in doubt. It just sounds really scary what he's written. Who knows perhaps he will be right, but from my perspective I don't doubt his ability to forecast at all he's well established as being correct a lot of the time. The write up really is something to behold though this morning that's all.

I agree all - I didn't want to say though as not that experienced!

This is from UK Weather Scientific who used to be Met Monkey I think? What are thoughts on this? DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM STATEMENT for Wednesday 21st June 2017 from 15:00 until 06.00am Thursday 22nd for the potential of dangerous supercells. There is a risk of dangerous supercells developing today across Northern England, North East England (Newcastle) and surrounding areas with a slightly lower risk for the Midlands. The situation is highly complex and a little uncertain due to the number of potential limiting factors however it is expected that a few supercell thunderstorms exhibiting rotation will form later this evening (dependant on heat and trigger locally). Thunderstorms that develop in conditions present today will be capable of producing large or very large damaging hail, damaging straight line winds and moderate strength tornadoes, not too dissimilar to those that form in the states. In addition usual severe characteristics typical with storms such as frequent lightning and flash flooding will be observed. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the N Midlands and into E Anglia although the threat is more uncertain and isolated due to the presence of upper ridging drying out the vertical profile. Nevertheless any storm that does manage to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous. It must be stressed that any storm that does develop today will need extremely close monitoring and we advise the public to be very weather aware and on high alert. The main risk is considered to be later this afternoon with focus more on the evening when heat and cap breaking is most probable. Please share this post with as many people as possible and rest assured through the day further updates will be provided. A potentially dangerous day of weather locally. As is always the case with set ups like these many places will remain dry or could miss the core of any storms but regardless the violent nature of today's storm potential warrants utmost vigilance and awareness. Stay aware and stay safe.

Thankfully after this lump of thundery rain clears from the NE quarter of the UK, the sun is likely to come out. Nothing behind the band so fingers crossed.

It always is - I wouldn't take much notice of it to be fair. They can't say for definite what's going to kick off as there's many conditions at play today.

Nice little storm south of Edinburgh there on the lightning map..

Thunder heard now to my west :-)

Much or just a small amount SS?

Lightning detected in the cells moving east across the North Pennine's - gone very oppressive here - to be fair I want them over so the heat of the day can do its job.