NO LONGER POSTING

Very very strange here.. Been to the yard done orders and am now back home. It goes very very quiet and then all of a sudden big gust of wind. Quiet again and then big gust... Each time getting stronger and stronger. This morning at 4am it sounded eerily quiet.. heard only 1 bird sing this morning! Usually the yard is alive with the sound of birds.. Not this morning!

Better late than never however I fear it's to late to make a massive difference.. ive never seen a red warning for wind in this part of the world. Stay safe everyone please please spread the word to family and friends to not travel unless absoultey essential!! Going to be a very rough day and probably quite sobering later once its blown through. This is the strongest storm in my short 28 years on this planet so far that I'm going to experience!

Incredible really after such a long period of dominated high pressure weather we are starring down the barrel of a very powerful storm. One thing we were talking today about in the yard is that countries subject to extreme weather events like hurricanes know and act when there are warnings. For good reason... of course, while this storm is strong its nothing compared to a large hurricane.. its just here in our part of the world we are not really custom to extreme weather events because they rarely happen... with climate change this is changing. My guess would be places with height in land box Hill leith Hill etc 75mph perhaps a touch more Lower levels top end 60s possibly low 70s.. Coasts and exposed parts 80-85mph There is the small risk that anywhere within the Amber warning tips 80mph even in land. Such geographical features can enhance wind speeds and models do not pick these up. Talk of a sting jet is something I was monitoring earlier in the week the risk of one. A fickle beast and almost impossible to forecast until its bearing down on you. Massive impact small area. It maybe on SAT tomorrow we can see one develop but a real now casting situation. Stay safe all, don't travel unless you really need to, I noticed even with the low 51mph gust we had here last night a lot of dead wood had been blown out the trees and on the roads this morning.

Down to 994mb hard to read on phone.. Batten down the hatches... its coming

A meer 1005MB nothing ness currently... this time tomorrow possible down to below 970mb.. over 30mb drop in 24hrs! MétéoCentre.com | La météo en temps réel pour le Québec, le Canada, les États-Unis et l'Europe METEOCENTRE.COM

Possibly because the storm is deepening slower and not fully developed until its practically slap bang over us... Will be watching the live surface pressure charts later and comparing to various models

Yes, best to stick to regional form now as a lot of people post cr** now if they dont fall within the warning areas on want to troll. Happens every time with a weather event. Good to ignore those posters as well with the ignore button. Pretty much as we were yesterday... Serious storm tomorrow that many people my age have not yet experienced one this powerful. 70mph inland easily possibly more. 80-90mph on coasts and dare I say it perhaps 100mph in exposed parts needles, eastern exposed costal areas etc..

Tree down on the line at Kew Bridge.. not even windy compared to what's coming Friday... Heathrow reported a 51mph gust not so long ago..

Yeah is very gusty here at the moment making some noise and this is half that of Friday!!!

I believe this is valid for storm Dudley

ICON well out on its own now with the Southerly route on the storm. I can't see GFS ARPEGE ECM all being wrong against the ICON but would be funny. Expecting the ICON to correct further North later today and tomorrow. That said, slight shift south on GFS 06z run. Be interesting to see the next few runs today. That leaves no wriggle room tomorrow really for any downgrades...

Morning all.. No backing down.. seriously dangerous charts this morning.. Fully expect Amber warnings by today/tomorrow... Even inland I think will push over 70mph in places!

ICON definitely on its own RE southerly track... wonder if the others will follow suite or if ICON goes north tomorrow...

Yeh similar thinking to met... 60-70mph inland 80-90mph exposed and coasts.. Very slight chance of a rouge 80mph inland

ECM 9am Friday - MPH

Yep, Westerly winds then a quick switch to Northerly winds... Maximum damage as everything gets blown one way then suddenly another, bit like when a hurricane passes through..

Im going for a ICON GFS blend here... Somewhere in between.. ICON has been poor with tracking low especially a few winters back it was so far out compared to the GFS and even the ARPEGE. That said, there is no reason that the southward shifts continue and it misses us altogether and Northern France take the brunt.

Probably be a blend between the GFS and ICON.. Seem to recall a few winters back how poor the ICON was with the stalling snowy lows etc

ECM has gone further south slightly... seems a trend at the moment not good.. alignment between models is slowly taking place For my location and anyone in and around the Thames Valley. That is near perfect direction of wind to funnel it down. Direct southerly I'm protected in my location from the worst but direct westerly fully exposed..

@Jimmyh Amber warnings will probably go out late tomorrow or on tomorrow mornings 10am update and review... Red warning maybe but you would kind of need the charts showing now to still be there Thursday. Then a red warning will probs be issued sometime Thursday.. although a rare beast and I've never seen a red warning for wind in our region before. GFS has shifted south slightly.. more in-line with ICON be good to see ECM and Arpege do the same and try get some good cross model agreement. One thing for sure, if these charts are showing tomorrow evening.. that leaves little wriggle room for big downgrades in wind speeds so we need to take note.

Yes, hoping this GFS run is well over doing... Can't see any downgrades on wind strengths at all just different areas with the highest gusts as the models try and sort out the track and depth of the storm!

Either GFS has been drinking over night or it is trying to fall in line with the ICON. Either way... We should all start taking note from tomorrow if these charts are still showing.. IF they are would probably go down as the strongest storm I have ever experienced (28 years old) Maximum in my location was 71mph and I was around 12-14 years old I think but remember it very well... Although powerful.. it is short thanks to the speed the storm is moving out HOWEVER this brings added sting jet concerns

Live observations I belive... you need perfect conditions for one to take place. Although could make an educated guess based on pervious events.

Going off the GFS.. I'm not an expert in this but that is almost perfect alignment for some sort of sting jet to potentially form... its still deepening on approach albeit not now bombing however... Jet stream

GFS 12Z t+96hrs No thanks... I think this personally is the height of the GFS slightly over doing it... can't possibly get any worse. Expect it to tone down somewhat tomorrow and Wednesday... well I hope so