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  • Gender
  • Location
    North Wales 208m asl
  • Interests
    Computer Modelling, Weather, reading and music
  • Weather Preferences
    crisp frosty days in Winter

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  1. Indeed do you remember a user called Armosferic (or could be ph...) I use to watch that board with all "the will it snow in my backyard posts", happy days. Might have been 1999 for me so 20 years ago where does the time go?
  2. I am no expert just have a long and painful experience of model watching. The absolute maximum would be 5 days but I would say 2/3 was safer. If you look at other forecasts on TV, for example, take note of how far they are going ahead that will give you an idea of how confident the professionals are. Basically, if it can go wrong it will.
  3. How can you tell that will be a blizzard from a simple graphic. Looks more like a shower to me and with max temp of 5 degrees it should not be a problem. Also that is Sunday at 0700 and as has been said many times on this site the computer generated forecasts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot!
  4. Forgive my possible ignorance, but is this disagreement between the two models indicative of further down-welling in the upper atmosphere. I though we had similar disagreements before the last cold spell which I understood to be a symptom of the state of the atmosphere being unusual and resulting in model disagreement from model to model and run to run?
  5. Indeed it does in particular those presenters that do not know their east from the west!
  6. Indeed the problems around here are all down to main pipe bursts. Was it that cold or are the pipes very shallow and near the surface? I really did not think that -5 or -6 would cause such problems, hay ho....
  7. No it is not, just shows how a small negative temp causes mayhem.
  8. Burst pipes in Blaenau so no water since Saturday over night. Dwr Cymru delivering bottled water, so out to join the queue!
  9. -2.4 max temp today light snow all morning, then some very hefty showers this afternoon adding to cover 8cm yesterday 2cm overnight and now another 5cm. Temp now (17:48) -6 degrees. We shall see what happens tomorrow and Friday but if I have a choice which I don't I would prefer the major snow to stay south with the mild warm air. But we will get what we will get here in Blaenau Ffestiniog.
  10. Is that on high ground by any chance, the weather forecast was for rain with hill snow so I think that was expected for this morning at least. It is snowing here north Wales now but we are at 208m asl so not unexpected and it will turn back to rain as milder air pushes in later today.
  11. Looks like the front will be well to the east by the time the -8 850hpa air comes in. Judging by the NW Radar and 850hpa overlay.
  12. Rain now turned to heavy snow, very wet but just beginning to settle on some surfaces.
  13. You would hope so, or rather I would. I was spitting feathers reading your post on how much snow you have had today. But it looks like the showers are showing up in the north this afternoon. As the wind has switched around fro NW to WNW then W and today SW it makes sense that the showers would show up your end first Anyway good luck to us all for the next few weeks regarding snow and cold.
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