EML Network

+144 and the big three are in agreement for the coming weekend at least orientation of the HP the only real difference. UKMO has cintinued to show a fuller system without the squeeze. What happens thereafter is anyones guess really, could go any number of ways, but at least we dont seem to be looking at screaming lows barreling in off the Atlantic and tbh we havent now for a good while (obviously not quite for the NW of the UK) but for those up in Bonnie Scotland this must feel like late spring at the moment.

I think we are going to get a northerly followed by a North Easterly plunge eventually, it possible that it might take a few bites at the cherry before we eventually get there though. If we DO end up having to wait until the middle of March (which tbh seems most likely despite what the models show tonight) then its going to take something really special to get snow laying and settling for more than a day or two...but we'll see... I think we should enioy the nirvana charts tonight especially given we have a rare scenario of both the ECM extended and the GFS seemingly seeing the same thing give or take. eyebrows raised at Exeter if things are modelled similarly by the end of this week. I for one am just going to enjoy the eye candy on offer tonight and allow myself to dream...and no doubt there will be more eye candy in the days ahead, but experience tells us it's unlikely to come to fruition....but can you imagine if it did !!!..... Time will tell.

May have posted this in the wrong thread... The big 3 at +144. Seem to have lost a little of the consistency that was showing this time yesterday at +144 (AKA 6 days away)...I do think sometimes we forget what the numbers relate to... in days. +144 in my opinion is always just beyond what any model can predict with any degree of real confidence...I always find it the most helpful timframe to focus on...anyways.... What does look fairly certain now is that in 6 days time the UK will be sitting more or less within the boundary line or influence of High Pressure. I dont think there is enough of a squeeze in the icobars to aid much PPN coming out of any slack easterly that might develop for a shortwhile thereafter as the ECM is showing. Ineed at +144 the GFS OP looks closer to the UKMO than it does the ECM. My eyes are now beimg drawn to the feature at the bottom left of these charts and how thats going to effect things moving forward...if we look at the position and strength of the Jetsream...it looks to me like its going to divert some of its energy to sink SE and prop up any HP sitting above it breifly. We are now seeing the response to the SSS into early march being represented in the output but as we all should know...its mere eye candy at this stage. Personally id say weve taken a step backwards today from seeing the quick turnaround and response we want to see today. Once those LP systems start popping up at the position they are in you can guarantee more will follow and unless theres a real push from the north to divert them south..or north...or a large and robust HP over us or ideally to the North...they will either find a way through or theyll roll over the top amd keep us in the same position we are now...I.E with HP in the driving seat NW Wet and SE Dry. the 'default' Lets see how 144 looks this time tomorrow

Big 3 at +144. All singing from a similar song sheet at this timeframe, i don't know what the verification stats are for the last 5 days, but to me it looks like the GFS and UKMO have been leading the way with the overall development but it (The UKMO) remains bullish with the High Pressure to the West being more full as opposed to being squeezed and so it never really allows the UK to tap into the cold air long enough for any susequent systems to form close enough to the UK to 'stall' a'la GFS. instead that little feature is shunted far to our South and HP has more influence over what we experience here on the ground. That being said, due to the similarity of all the models right out to +144 at the moment neither model can be dismissed, nor can how they evolve thereafter. So regardless of the GFS OP being a bit of an outlier I wouldn't necessarily discount it. The ECM evolution isnt awful at all either, its full of potential and theres the possibility of a 'slider' further down the line too. Id say that there is a lot to be hooefull about this morning, I too like BFTP feel like the building blocks are falling into place. On a side note its so great that this forum is still going strong...I think i joined this site in 2009 ? cant remember...so it really does feel like home. Have a top weekend folks x

Glad to see that the UKMO is broadly similar to the GFS at +144 whereas the ECM does seem to be on it's own at the same timescale. I don't think the UKMO would go the same way as the GFS does thereafter, however, but its not a million miles away. Still up for grabs I'd say.

I find the 06Z run a bit dubious from the strat 30Hpa perspective. It has the reminense of the PV in Siberia at T+260 to sitting over the UK just 1.5 days later ? That asides the trend towards something colder is one most of us on here will welcome. I'd also say it's a very quick response from the SSW and I personally think what we are seeing is the models first run in response to that...or is that stating the obvious ?? The good thing about modelling from a SSW is that the SSW itself in terms of where the warming is located and how the PV reacts to it at 30HPA and below is very accuate in terms of modelling to quite a way out. Whats less accurate is the downwelling modelling and ultimately how that feeds through in terms of placement of pressure systems and interactions with the Jetstream...which itself is generally effected by what happens 'down or up stream' we have a major driving force that is well studied and understood and so my guess is that there might not be as much variation or indeed wild swings in the modelling output over the next few days anyway. Thats just my guess, what I am not seeing though is what most of us on here are going to need to see snow falling and settling on the ground at this time of year...i.e a classic Beast from the East. A direct polar plunge would likely result in it being an all East Coast affair with the Atlantic waiting to take over...at least in the 'short term' But as others have said...get the cold in first and then hope lady luck is on our side.

if this is anything to go by then id say we would be very unlucky not to get something out of it. PV all but oblkterated on this run

Baring in mind that we still have 4 days until the SSW begins I'm guessing thats how long we are going to have to wait until we start to get a picture of how the dust settles ? From what I read on the latest post about SSW's on the netweather's latest home page post, only 6 out of 10 SSW's lead to a cold outbreak and it can take MONTHS for us to feel such effects. on a side note...Summer arrives early in Spain early next week !!! tempted to book a cheap last minute away break

Yes a large cluster of cold evolutions there. I feel like we are going to get some exciting F.I charts in the days to come, but I feel that as others have illuded to the hype being built up regarding any 'background signals' should be viewed as just that. They are not neccesarily the main driving forces behind what we experience on the ground and I do feel that winter after winter too much emphasis is put on them as more often than not what appears to be showing something condusive to cold fails to deliver. All of that being said....lets enjoy the next few weeks as no doubt there's going to be some really exciting output for us colides

Indeed. But have you ever seen such a snowless Europe this deep into Winter generally ? I know everyone was hoping that somehow the GFS from last few days was going to verify, (although we knew it was unlikely)..I think that had it done so, it would have been almost unberable as there would have been hardly any snowfall most likely. personally Im feeling that we might get a shot at a decent cold and snow spell as winter ends and 'spring' begins. Im also not sure if anyone else felt this, but yesterday I was out in my garden and I was amazed at how I could feel the strength of the sun on me. it felt like April

I'm finding this current set up fascinating, I dont know how to post it on here, but if you run through the 06z run from a Northern Hemisphere prospective its as if the entire northern hemispehres weather patterns have slowed to a crawl. Everything seems to have slowed right down compared to normal when systems are meandering around at a pace. Seems highly unusual to me ??

Looks like the cold air is going to hang onto that extreme SE tip of the UK for a good while yet. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere along the East facing coasts of Anglia or Kent get a wayward flurry at some point over the next 4 or 5 days potentially. Jet stream looks favourable for a glancing blow. Thereafter its a case of having to wait to see where the High Pressure goes, IMO. Jet split between running over the top and runing into Mid North Atlantic on our newlly estbalished high pressure over the UK meaning were in a no mans land and theres usually only a small window of opportunity before the Jet is envigorated, gathers strength and pushes it out of the way, meaning any cold incursions get pushed fsr East of the UK. Early doors and its making interesting model watching.

I always like it when we get High pressure meandering nortwards or sitting directly over the UK at this point in the winter. It is often a pre cursor to something cold and noteworthy and the way that the GFS is playing with the evolvement of the set up it does give me some confidence that something is brewing for the turn of the month. If nothing else we might finally see some drier weather for a while.

Oh so long it's been since I posted on here. A very prosperous 2023 to each and every one. From what Ive seen (And despite not posting on here for years...I check the charts religiously every single day)...Temporary cold incursions from the North West is likely to be the best chance of seeing snow falling for some of us. Seems that we are locked into a full Atlantic onslaught but there are signs of that weakening IMO as we head through Mid January. What I am finding interesting this season is the lack of the Polar Vortex dropping this side of the Atlantic and ive not seen any signs of Height Rises over Scandinavia.. can anyone remember the last time we had an easterly feed ? Im sure there are factors behind that, which im not educated enough to comment on. But I had snow on the ground IMBY for 5 full days this winter already which is the best its been here since 2013 so I can't complain. Just have to sit out the next 10 days I think and see if there's any weakening or disconnect of the jetstream before we can start looking forward to the next opportunity.

Lmfao always the same on here, everyone gets all hopeful and then as the 'event' draws near hopes gets dashed. Some parts of the UK are I think going to get snowfall between Xmas and New years and it looks to me like a East V West battle might ensue as warmer Atlantic moist laiden air bumps into the cold dry, it that turns out to be the case somewhere might get a significant dumping. If history is anything to go by it might be a case of West is best.

Lmfao you are kidding right. The NE always gets snow, especially on the NE coast

If those in the South want to get a sniff of the white stuff between Xmas and new years then we need to see that Low modelled South over Northern France, running out of time now. I still hold firm that this is looking great for Wales and into parts of Shroshire as far North as Cumbria looking more and more like being in the sweet spot. Same old same old really.

Sorry guys but I have to supoort what others have said on here. I want to see cold and snow as much as everyone else does, but you cant just keep ignoring what the models are telling you. A very and all too brief cold snap followed by a period of warmer weather is what is in store over xmas. There is a lot of straw cluthing going on in here and you are just setting yourselves up for dissapointment. Lets see what January has to offer.

Regardless of the outcome next week what a refreshing change it is to be looking at a potential cold spell with snow potential before winter officially starts. Normally were left waiting until mid December or later before going through the model emotional rollercoaster rides. I lean towards looking at the ''mean'' pressure charts on the GFS these days as opposed to taking any one run at face value when it comes to anything more than +T96 and I think the following chart gives us a better indication as to what MIGHT come to pass. GFS Mean at +168 the HLB is about 400 miles further North than you see it on the ECM OP at the same time frame. If we look at the ECM 00Z at +144 you can see what a complex set up we have and it really could go in any number of directions thereafter. What we have going in our favour this time around is that LP system close to the Azores I think that is a classic -NAO signal (correct me someone if I am wrong) and it's preventing the High from flattening in combination with a LP over central Spain, which means even if the ECM is on the money there would likely be a few more roles of the dice. Plenty of reasons to be optomistic IMO

Didnt know where to post this. After being an active memberon here over the last 13 years or so, I have gotten to the point now where I feel the intrusive nature of the adverts on this site (especially the lottery one) has made this site far too frustrating for me to use. Barely a day has gone by since 2009 where I havent checked the GFS charts, but now every time I go to check I have to deal with an advert that overlays itself just as Im clicking the 850 or rain overlay, opening up a new page that Id not intended. Ive had enough of it now, banner links are fine, but these new intrusive ads have ruined this site. Such a shame, ill now be heading to w.outlook for my daily gfs fix. A sad day

From a purely IMBY perspective, this winter has been absolute pants. we had snow falling that never settled, whilst others just a few miles away had two or three decent snow events where the snow settled and stayed on the ground. I spent 2 days where the precipitation literally fizzled out right over my head and its just been a winter of complete let downs. If anything this winter has turned me from a cold and snow lover into one who no longer enjoys the cold and the snow because year after year after year it's just the same boring rubbish down here. Maybe im just getting old, but my love of snow and cold has gone now, roll on spring, roll on longer days and roll on the warmth. winter you can go and do one. it's been the worst winter ever for me.

Well im calling this the biggest let down and complete non event down here, weve had light snow all day and not one iota of it has settled. If it snows and the temperature is zero, the dew point is well into the negative, the uppers are around mimus 10 and its STILL not settling then I might as well just give up hope of ever seeing snow falling and settling here. Makes no sense at all.

you have got to be kidding me common !!! For crying out loud, Brighton Snow shield working overtime.

Id ignore the Met Office icons they change all the time. I think what we have now is all we'll get

Lmfao same as yesterday, PPN gets to within a few miles of here and simply dissipates overhead ???? I think i just have to accept that Brighton is probably THE worst place in the entire Solar system for snow.