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Looking through all 20 runs and not including either the, Op or parrallel. When looking at solely the 850 Uppers POST 240 5 runs won't deliver the goods 4 runs are close, flirting with cold but no cigar 11 runs have an extended period of cold weather bearing in mind it's a + 240 chart , all you can ever do at that time frame is look to see trends, you'd never get all 20 runs going for cold, so I for one like those odds.

Only one run and the very final frame, but to me this looks like the beginning of a proper SSW that makes it right down to the ''right'' level, accompanied by a split vortex. This is the only chart I really look at to be fair as I don't have the time available to me to look at or understand the many other charts, so if I am wrong please delete this post or correct me. I'd really like to see this firming up in future runs and for the warming to cut right into the heart of the pole with some yellows getting right into the center, but it looks to me as if this idea is something that has been toyed with for a while with glancing blows , could thiis be the knock out blow ? Surely a SSW in early Jan is ideal for a Winter SSW, with any effects coming in the 20-30 th Jan timeframe and lasting throughout Feb ??

Some mouth watering charts on offer deep into FI on the 06z A greeny High seems to be the favorite option on the table. It's a case of take your pick, far too many showing something similar for it to be a one off, I feel this is the start of something exciting ust in time for the end of the year, as per Met Office 15-30 hints. Control run last frame Run 1 Run 2 Run 4 Look at run 7 !! Run 8 Run 15 Run 16 PLENTY more runs showing a Greeny high in FI, but that's the pick of the bunch for me, if it's trends your looking for then today has given us the best charts of the season so far all be it in FI and completely out of the blue too. Hope to see some firming up on this as we go into the next week ??

subtle differences in the UKMO output at +120, in just FIVE DAYS time giving us a direct Northerly, or at least NNW feed. UKMO + 120 ECM + 120 has the High pressure's influence covering the entire country (or thereabouts), and so the feed has more of a Westerly component to it..... JMA + 120 even more progressive with the influence of the High encompassing the entire country, the cold air kept well to the north of the UK..... GFS Control run is probably close to the money being a half way house in between the other models, with the West of the UK being more under the influence of the High and the East having more of a northerly component ..... This all of course just a snapshot in time for the end of the coming week, I'd take the UKMO evolution for being more favorable for a route to cold thereafter, mostly due to the fact that the High pressure to our West is organised in such a way that it could theoretically have it's energy shunted north to Iceland allowing the Low pressure that is NW of Scandi to drop opening the doors to a potent NE feed. So as others have said, there is STILL potential in the output, just because we are not seeing it programmed doesn't mean it's not there. It's only when there is no plausible evolution to cold that we should start to sigh, were not there yet, but it could just as easily to the way of the pear in the next week, options options options, far better than this time last year for sure.

Great post, written with the maturity and knowledge I could only dream of having !! To my untrained and very much bedroom enthusiast eye, Looking further ahead (which always going to be about looking for trends ??), IMO that there really doesn't seem to be one and when there's a lack of trend in the models it tells me that a half way house between what is being shown is the most likely outcome. To that end I wouldn't be surprised if after this week, we see a continuation of the UK being stuck between High pressure to the West, and High pressure to the East with Low pressure squeezing between the gaps. Something a bit like what peturbation 12 is showing As you say though anything is plausible I just wanted to find some way of saying that your post was awesome other than putting some one liner that would be deleted :-)

I tend to look at the ensembles to get some sort of consistency at this time of year, I've noticed that after a slow decrease in the 850 Uppers, they are starting to trend back upwards again. Below is the ensembles for Derbyshire, which is about as close as you're gonna get to ''Middle Britain'' , why people are forever posting the London ensembles and thinking it's indicative of the rest of the UK i'll never know. So after a short time of a few days of below average temperatures, presumably as transient north westerly's fall on the leading edge of any incoming High pressure cells. Worth looking to see where the Jet stream is too, and not surprisingly it's well North of the UK from early next week onward and tends to stay that way throughout the run, going over the High pressure(s). So more seasonable next week for sure and finally some respite from the rain...that will do me for now.

Regardless of what happens beyond, it looks like the UK is going to get it's first country wide taste of Winter, just as winter begins. Wed 3rd Dec ECM GFS for 2nd Dec GEM 3rd Dec and yesterdays JMA run wasn't a million miles away either...2nd Dec I didn't like the text summary of the ECM monthly update, zonal all the way seems a possibility but unlikely perhaps cool zonality from the North West is an option on the table, but equally so is a far flung Easterly with not much on the bones. I can't see this stale mate between pressure systems being resolved anytime soon, and a seasonable feel to things early in Dec is FAR better than where we were at that stage last year, who remembers the 5th Dec 2013 !! here's a reminder http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_ewdjB2OeY

To my untrained eye this looks like a thing of beauty. An attack from 2 sides and a split vortex ?

It's all a bit ''Meh'' at the moment. The GFS 12z seems to be very progressive leaning towards a repeat of the rubbish we had to content with last year, especially the control run. Control Run on the GFS at + 228, look familiar ?? The other models lean more towards a stalemate type set up, which had we had cold air to our East, would have been stunning synoptics , alas there is a distinct lack of anything cold in Europe and hence bugger all to tap into even if we did get a far flung Easterly. On the face of it the UKMO looks better at + 144, but those two High pressure systems would soon link up and we'd have a jet stream running WAY north and I can't see a route to cold from this. Thank god it's only November.

I have to laugh, every winter we go through the same discussions and you'd think after 4 or 5 years of heavy debate that we'd come to some sort of conclusion about LR Forecasting, the Met O, the GFS, the CFS, the ECM , Anomaly charts, SST Charts, Tripole, Snow Index, Sunspot count and activity, La Nina, El Nino, Polar Vortex, Waves, The Strat, etc etc etc etc The truth is that even armed with all of this information, ever faster computers, new data such as the OPI, were still none the wiser about what is likely to happen more than 7 - 10 days out and even that is a stretch. If there was a magic formula someone would have discovered it by now and would be making billions. So, were left in a magic wonderland of debate and chart watching and hopecasting, but for me this is what makes this whole area of study and debate so interesting, you just never know whats going to happen until is has happened or until it's about to happen, the fun comes in watching it develop and discussing where it's headed. I hope that we never get to the point where we can say for sure what will happen more than a few weeks out, because the fun would go out of chart watching and forums like this would all but die. I hope we get cold and snow this winter, I hope that every Winter, we seem to be in a better position presently to have the opportunity to have a cold spell at some point this winter, if it happens and when that will be...well that's what we all love discussing and nobody really knows more than anyone else. Gut feelings are just as reliable as Science when looking at more than a month out, we're in tune to nature more than any super computer will ever be and more than we give ourselves credit for, we should remember that and not rely solely on what exists merely inside a computer model.

Ohh dear :-( Not what I wanted to see this morning, the Atlantic squeezes through and then what follows is very reminisent of this time last year, I hope the trend reverses as we still have time for that to happen, but it's not what cold and snow lovers wanted to see tbh. Still it's worth remembering that it's only Mid November so we are still well and truly in Autumn, it's all about taking opportunities when you have them to get snow and cold in the UK and right now we have an opportunity to at the very least get cold air to our East and North, ready to tap into, but if this mornings GFS proves to be onto something then even that will have to be put on ice (pardon the pun), chances are we'll get more opportunities this year than last year though. All to play for and it is only the 12th November, so let's keep that in mind and be realistic with our hopes.

Those charts look like the SST anomaly charts Especially with the blue ''cold'' pool of water in the Mid North Atlantic, I think too much weight has been put on that and the LR Models will fall flat on their faces this winter

So it's the time of year when the Model Output discussion thread becomes the thread where everyone ends up discussing the ''If's'', ''But's'' and ''Maybe's''. And as happens each winter the almost compulsory squabbling and differing of views of what the charts are showing, or are not showing, where things look to be headed or not and no doubt at some point we'll all be lead up the garden path and toys will be thrown out of the pram. What I find very encouraging about the various outputs at present is that a lot of the runs seem to want to eventually cut off the generic Westerly feed and break it up, with various options being presented, that's not to say that we are going to hit the jackpot at the first time of asking, but the general theme is for options that allow the possibility of us tapping into some cold air and getting lucky. Last winter I recall us having only a few occasions ALL WINTER, where we had options on the table, but the door was slammed shut time and time again. Were in a far better position this time around already and it's only November, there's plenty to be cautiously optimistic about IMO.

This thread has been absolutely great to review, read and learn from. My hats go off to the several regular posters on this thread for taking the time to explain things in such a manner that one can actually visualize it and make sense of it and to all those who take the time to explain what is happening right now and how that might effect the weather we see here on the ground. I for one think that we will be very unlucky to get to Xmas without having experienced at least one decent cold spell and I'm confident most of us will see snow falling before the year is out. A far cry from this time last year and I'm amazed that the seasonal models are doggedly sticking to their guns, indicating a repeat of last year. A bit off topic, but I just wanted to voice my thanks to all the hard work that goes into this thread.

Putting aside the Strat developments, OPi etc and just looking at the raw outputs of the GFS runs over the past few weeks, it's apparent (at least to my eyes), that the building blocks really are beginning to take shape for a cold spell either later in November or early in December. As the days progress the output keeps toying with the idea of cold air flooding into Europe in FI land but staying just out of reach, which is fine , I'd rather we get a decent cold spell in December as opposed to Mid or late November as long as it comes off the back of relative cold, so that the dew points have better chance to going sub zero and the wet bulb temperatures get low. There's nowt worse that seeing a foot of snow fall overnight only for it to have all but melted by the time you get to midday due to the wet bulb being too high. Things look promising and I am liking the way it's all shaping up

I have a feeling it won't be long before the GFS Ensembles 850 Uppers are going to be posted on here. As of yet I can see no reason to be posting them, but I just have a sneaky feeling at some point in the next week or so we're going to start seeing some juicy FI charts. My only worry is the lack of any real cold air to our East, but it is only early November so perhaps I am getting a little ahead of myself

I find this chart VERY interesting. If you go over all the LR Models that are out, the areas that they show to be above average for Winter for temperature seem to fall in line almost perfectly with the areas where the SST is warmer and the telling is by looking at the area of below average SST in the Mid North Atlantic. EVERY LRF Model has that area for below average temperatures this winter, it's as if they have simply taken this map and based their temperature anomaly on it, I have no faith what so ever in the LRF Pressure and temperature anomaly models this winter, I think they'll all be miles out. Not only does the temperature anomaly chart look similar to the SST chart, but the rainfall anomaly chart falls in line with it too, it's all a load of baloney !!..it can't be THAT simple !! , If I am wrong then this Winter will be another mild one and I will start to wonder if we'll have to endure another decade of snowless winters down here like we did between the late 90's to the late 00's ...lets hope I am right and the LR Models are wrong

I thought we'd gotten past the debate about the CFS etc. I'm not surprised to see the GFS + 384 chart today, the first FI chart of the season showing a nice easterly setting up. I've said in previous posts and elsewhere that it's quite apparent that we are going to get at least one decent cold spell nationwide before XMas, it's unlikely to be the one that is showing on the GFS this morning, but I can't see how any of the Pro's on here can fail to see how things are shaping up. A slack Atlantic, Low pressure systems stalling out West or indeed coming very close to undercutting and a distinct lack of lows riding high up into Iceland, that smacks of an impending - NAO. unless there's a big turn around in the next week, I am highly confident of a decent cold spell effecting our shores within the next 3-6 weeks

I'm getting more and more hopeful about this winter. Anyone that has done several years of model watching should be able to see in the set up, and what looks likely for November that the cards are being stacked heavily in favor of a cold outbreak , this may or may not come next month,. but I would be very surprised if we get to the XMas period without a significant countrywide snow event having already took place. It's clear that from next week onward the Jet Stream meanders to the South of the UK and it's not going to take much of a deviation in the current synoptics | pattern for us to get an early blast of cold weather before we even get to December. A late November first bite at the cherry would suite me just fine with a couple of other attempts in December , my only concern would be that the way things are shaping up, I would expect any early Winter cold to come from a direct Northerly , (wishbone effect)..which is no good for IMBY prospects ,but it could bode well for those along NE Facing coasts...just a hunch

I think that is a good analogy and highlights the fact that the OPI index on it's own is not an indicator of either a mild or a cold Winter here in the UK, but it is likely to be a good indicator as to whether or not the Polar Vortex will become entrenched to the point where it is going to take a mammoth effort to dislodge or split it. This, OPI index then, might very well end up influencing other parts of the jigsaw and may be taken into account when looking at NAO forecasts, Height anomaly forecasts and LRF's. I hope the OPI is peer reviewed and accepted as together with other parts of the jigsaw we already have , it would give us all a little bit of extra confidence in knowing what might come to pass each Winter , but I doubt we'll ever get to the point where we can make a call more than 3-4 weeks out at the very most.

HA HA HA Brilliant !!!

I don't know what it is, but I have the distinct feeling that the background signals are all waiting in the wings , waiting to strike when the opportunity presents itself and I just have some sort of weird feeling that at some point earlier than later this Winter, we're all going to be shoved firmly in the freezer for a week or so. It's like the weather gods are waiting for conditions to be just right to pounce on an unsuspecting UK

You know Winters on it's way when you start getting the..... "CFS show's snowmageddon" type posts, which are usually followed by.. "The CFS is rubbish" type posts, which are usually followed by... "Actually Long Range Models aren't all rubbish, otherwise companies wouldn't plough money into them'' type posts, which are often followed by... "Show me a Long Range Model that was right, but was not right just by being lucky" type posts.... And then in the not too distant future thereafter the GFS usually throws up something tasty in the deepest darkest depths of FI and we repeat the steps above, only this time it's in relation to the GFS. At which point the CFS is completely disregarded for the entire Winter.. Then not too long afterward the ECM leads us all up the garden path...yes you guessed it we repeat the steps above only this time in relation to the ECM. Meanwhile the MET Office model chucks the odd wayward run in every once in a while and ...well you get the jist of it. I love winter on Netweather :-)

I always like to use Meteoradar to look at snow prospects for the next 7 or so days over Scandi and Western Russia, http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/forecastloop (Look for the orange shading for where it's likely to snow) It's not looking too great to be fair especially when you extend the run into this weekend and I doubt we'll see much further westward movement of snow than what it is at right now, perhaps flirting with the border between Russia and Europe by months end... something slightly similar happened last winter, we had a great start to October in terms of early snow cover advancing from Siberia, but about mid month it grinded to a halt. As far as the OPI is concerned, I suspect it won't get too much higher than the -1.8, I'd say we're likely to end up somewhere between - 1.5 and -2. So there's no need to panic IMO. Other background signals all point towards the UK fairing much better than last winter for cold and snow prospects, but I think we're all going to have to be patient to get a repeat of the winters we want to see. Overall I, for one am confident we'll have a half decent Winter, I think we'll all get our share of cold and snow at some point, possibly early on and then again late on, with a bit of a mess in the middle.

Early doors, but reading through the various posts and looking at some of the longer range anomaly charts around, it would appear that the building blocks for something very interesting this winter are being laid down. If that continues through October and into November then I can't see a repeat of last winter and it will be over to other parts of the jigsaw to follow suite and play ball as it were. Steady as she goes. I wonder if High Sea Surface Temperature anomaly's around the UK coastline might be a chink in the armor this winter ?