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Midlands Ice Age

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Midlands Ice Age last won the day on May 2 2016

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    Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
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    Golf and weather.

    Veteran who can just remember the winter of 1947 as well as 1963.
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    Sun, Snow and Storms

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  1. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Hi Guys,,, Interesting times for next week. I think we may end up with scattered snow showers on Monday with some heavier ones around on Tuesday and Wednesday. However it is the cold that interests me. We currently have uppers around +4C.Yet last night I dropped to a minimum of -5.8C (DP -8.5C). Even at 08:00 it was still -4.0C. Seems to be a bit of scattered cloud now from the East. and we are just above freezing at +0.8C, however the DP is still at -2,2C so no thawing of the frost in the shade as yet. Does this give us any clues for when we have -15C uppers and 20mph winds in the middle of next week? It is going to be blxxdy cold for us all. Look after every one around you, including the wild life. It may be of interest but I am a follower of the Rutland Osprey project... The birds will be setting off to come back to the UK from Central Africa shortly. Will they delay? Otherwise I can see nowhere they will be able to fish! It could be disastrous for the Ospreys. Lets hope they are good at spotting and forecasting the weather, and stay south. At least better than the MO? MIA
  2. BFTP I similarly tried to indicate the possible uniqueness of the current situation, in a posting which I posted on Monday of this week. It is still looking possible that the long odds situation that I referred to could happen. My QUOTE (to remind people what I actually stated - I was referring to one GFS run only).) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purga... Took this one run of yours from overnight, but it is one of many. Whilst it is quiet in here I thought I would try and show how 'amazing' that last nights GFS 18z pub run rally was really was. It started with the Beasterly (now pretty much nailed on)... then went on to an attack from the SW giving a channel low very rare in these conditions.. then went on (and quite naturally) into a section of the PV coming down over us (the so-called polar low), and all in 7 days. Now I will try and put some figures on how rare this sequence might be. Assume a beasterly occurs once in every 5 to 10 years. Assume that a channel low might occur in a 1 in 10 chance (in bitterly cold air).. Assume that a switch to a polar vortex low occurs as a 1 in 30 years occurrence .... Note the above is roughly the figures for the UK. Now normally the 'odds' are calculated by multiplying the numbers together. That gives a 1 in 2250 chance of the events occurring one after another. Now because the synoptics just seem to 'flow' naturally from one to the other you must assume that it is fairly well a pre-set synoptic process and that once the situation sets up, one will automatically follow from the next. So if I assume that this reduces the chances of it 'not' happening by a factor of 2 to 5. (A complete guess but must happen frequently!) You still would only expect this sort of situation only once in from 400 to 1000 years. Note I am looking at the complete rapid sequence in a few days here, not just the chance of it happening in a total winter. It did happen in 1962 for example but was separated by about 6 weeks. So the odds are against it happening!"!!!! I hope that for the younger viewers it puts last nights GFS down as one to remember. It was a simply sensational run from a synoptic point of view. I see that already the models seem to be upgrading the 'early' cold. So I went on to think about how it could be bettered....... Possibly by means of dropping the main PV over us is the only way I can see. This would have to be via Siberia I suspect.. Now I think that would be a once in a millennia event and could not possibly happen. We could develop a 'low' in the beasterly ... Oh hang on the ECM does just that! It is once in a lifetime chance to view something special in the charts. Can it deliver!!!!!!!!!! MIA. ENQUOTE ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now I feel an update is required... It is now certain we are getting the Beasterly this coming week. - tick The Channel low situation at the end of the week is still a possibility (give it a 25% chance of happening). ????? The following dropdown of the PV after the retrogression is now appearing more and more possible (50%?). Still it is still long odds on us getting the 'full Monty'., and the 1 in 400 years event occurring. But - if we miss out on the Channel low occurring we are stiil at a roughly 1 in 40 years event occurring. It will still be very notable. The full impact scenario is just about possible. What will enable it to happen? Well my money is the unique occurrence of 2 SSW's occurring in quick succession, both looking to hit the UK in a favourable way. It must also be pointed out that a third is still seen a s possible later on in March. Now I believe that this situation is probably extremely rare. If it happens in the way it seems to be we could well be seeing a 1 in 40 year event, but it would not take much to convert this in to the 1 in 400 years event, I mentioned above as being portrayed at that time. It would take only small changes involving the Channel low to make it a 1 in 100 years experience. Rivalling 1947, 1881 and 1895 for snow amounts and disruption. In todays 'power' environment it could be argued that it will be worse. Do not mis-understand me. It will not be the coldest ever, since most of it will be happening in March. It will however likely break some of the longer March recorded figures if it occurs as portrayed. It is worth, the newer members at least, remembering these events if they happen as shown. I still say again - can/ will it happen? MIA
  3. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    As others have reported the temperature has fallen since mid morning as cloud spread in. Fell from 4.2C to 3.0C by mid- afternoon. The skies then cleared at sunset and we are now down at -2.0C already. The air is dry as the dp is -5.7C BBC 6:30 forecast says the cold air wont be arriving until Monday, and any snow is still to be determined. Blooming Baltic I reckon already. MIA
  4. SH... Or as suggested it could help to prolong the bitter cold if it elongates (disrupts) to the south of the UK. If it does this over the Channel we could well be seeing huge amounts of snowfall for England. Could well begin to rival some epic snowfalls of the past. In fact the latest charts begin to show just that. MIA
  5. Mike... If you read on I have stated that exactly, and attempted to make an allowance for it, of from 200 to 500%! MIA
  6. Purga... Took this one run of yours from overnight, but it is one of many. Whilst it is quiet in here I thought I would try and show how 'amazing' that last nights GFS 18z pub run rally was really was. It started with the Beasterly (now pretty much nailed on)... then went on to an attack from the SW giving a channel low very rare in these conditions.. then went on (and quite naturally) into a section of the PV coming down over us (the so-called polar low), and all in 7 days. Now I will try and put some figures on how rare this sequence might be. Assume a beasterly occurs once in every 5 to 10 years. Assume that a channel low might occur in a 1 in 10 chance (in bitterly cold air).. Assume that a switch to a polar vortex low occurs as a 1 in 30 years occurrence .... Note the above is roughly the figures for the UK. Now normally the 'odds' are calculated by multiplying the numbers together. That gives a 1 in 2250 chance of the events occurring one after another. Now because the synoptics just seem to 'flow' naturally from one to the other you must assume that it is fairly well a pre-set synoptic process and that once the situation sets up, one will automatically follow from the next. So if I assume that this reduces the chances of it 'not' happening by a factor of 2 to 5. (A complete guess but must happen frequently!) You still would only expect this sort of situation only once in from 400 to 1000 years. Note I am looking at the complete rapid sequence in a few days here, not just the chance of it happening in a total winter. It did happen in 1962 for example but was separated by about 6 weeks. So the odds are against it happening!"!!!! I hope that for the younger viewers it puts last nights GFS down as one to remember. It was a simply sensational run from a synoptic point of view. I see that already the models seem to be upgrading the 'early' cold. So I went on to think about how it could be bettered....... Possibly by means of dropping the main PV over us is the only way I can see. This would have to be via Siberia I suspect.. Now I think that would be a once in a millennia event and could not possibly happen. We could develop a 'low' in the beasterly ... Oh hang on the ECM does just that! It is once in a lifetime chance to view something special in the charts. Can it deliver!!!!!!!!!! MIA.
  7. Crewe ... How about coming into my spider's den over on the other forum.... Seriously though the bitter cold winters of 1695-7 are believed to have very similar synoptics, and occurred at the very bottom of Maunder Minimum sun spot period. The difference was that they started in January. I once saw a 'probable' pattern for the atmospheric pattern that someone constructed of the time, and from the data available, and it looked just like T200 - T300 on todays GFS run. Truly amazong run! Midlands Ice Age
  8. Ice Cold... The situation in 1947 was similar for one mad week where two separated elongated lows moved up the channel about 3 days apart. The synoptics were different then; we had a more vigorous and mobile southern arm of the jet just to our south after the WAA 'high' had moved straight over us up to Scandi. That caused continuous snow and severe drifting in the gale force easterly winds for quite a while and the temp was about -2C at the max. Many place did not exceed -4C. This time it looks to be coming from the East, with the Atlantic coming in to join the party later, at the same time as a further re-load from the North east. It may well be that it happened at this same week then. Its too late for me to check tonight.. Apart from that I can only guess that we are looking at the old time winters of the 17th ,18th and 19th centuries, which were coincidently also caused at a time of very low sun-spots. Is it coincidence? One of these is reported to have had temps of -20C in Kent for a few hours in a raging easterly gale. Someone years ago (when I was a kid) wrote a book and attempted what the synoptics must have been like,. It had some resemblance to the latest GFS in the 250 - 290 time frame!! MIA
  9. The SSW of Feb 2018

    Finally got around to producing the updated Excel spreadsheet with the relevant years updated with the 'best 3 years in the previous 10years'. I actually cheated a bit to help make the later years look better by selecting years outside the strict 2000 to 2010 to current range... So if I cherry pick to make the last year 10 year average higher (and perform the same operation on the graphs in the 1690 - 1740 period), it looks like this - AJC2016 Version 3.pdf To me it seems to make the Maunder minimum period even more variable and more extreme with the increase in temp confirmed at 2.35C in the 40 year spell, where as the current warming is about 1.30C in the 100 years. So it clearly leads to the question - what did cause the extreme warming in the earlier spell? Why is the current warming unique? MIA
  10. The SSW of Feb 2018

    Still growing strong I see? Can I ask how long your records go back? MIA
  11. The SSW of Feb 2018

    BFTV... Thanks for your considered post above... I would like to respond by splitting your post up into two and to discuss the two parts separately. As I was out all day yesterday and also most of today and tomorrow could I ask if you can see the file I uploaded in my post the other day?. (see my post below). As if you cannot then it explains your posting, otherwise I feel that my previous post has not been understood. My comments about your posting was not that the data was incorrect, but that it was poor for identifying short to medium term trends. (talking 10 to twenty years, and then onwards). That is why I used Excel to help document the data so that the trends were/are clearly visible.. Your data has the information embedded, but it is not possible to 'tease' it out clearly. I will reply by adjusting my spreadsheet to perform the suggestions you have made into it, but there is no point if you cannot see the results?? Will be back later on this evening. MIA
  12. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Hi Guys... Been out in a very cold wet morning with early on definite lite snow falling. Has now (at about midday) turned to sleety rain. Definite snow flakes falling even half an hour ago. Temperature now at 2.5C, dp is -0.1C, after falling to a cold -4.1C overnight. (DP -6.2C). No forecast of anything wintry here for this morning so it was a nice surprise, though extremely cold. Now at 15 days with falling snow and laying at 19. I am hoping we can double it in the next month. MIA
  13. The SSW of Feb 2018

    Nope... (the graph) That had already been published by QS, and is no use whatsoever for looking at trends, within the gradually rising temperatures. But thanks for posting it. I do agree, and my point was that the early 1700's were very variable, and in comparison, I have already stated make the latest 150years look quite stable. I was going to mention the Great Strom of 1722,, where by for a week the wind is thought to have exceeded 1000mph and culminated in a storm with 120 mph winds quite widely. Something like that again might well signal climate change. As also might the current SSW(?), which seems to be of a very large import according to the strat people. We will see. You seem to be citing the PDO as a possible cause for the past CC...... Normally it takes quite a few years to work through for a full worldwide change. Already we see the latest change (last 4/5 months) to even a weak La Nina beginning to affect the Tropospheric temperatures (according to Spencer in his researches). This would take a prolonged period to turn around the upward trend on a worldwide basis, so I am not certain how you can claim that world records have been set DESPITE a negative PDO. These changes tend to work in decades which was the whole point of my 10year graph. Is it not like trying to turn the Queen Mary? This means that climate will always work with lags. I am also not certain how you can claim that the CET has set new records (except in the peak of the Nino in 2014) on an annual or multi year average basis,. The last 10 years have seen the CET 7 year average falling from the previous 10year average.. The other aspect of your post.I wish to comment upon, is that it is perfectly possible to have two (or even multiple) trends interacting at the same time. The physics of oceans impact on earths atmosphere is very poorly understood. Remember it is 70.3% of the earths surface. We could still see the oceans be trying to offload any heat it has gained from a hundred years of warming whilst at the same time be entering into a period when it is being warmed (or cooled) by other outside effects. The solar effects are poorly understood. Is it coincidence for example that we have seen this huge tearing apart of our polar vortex at exactly the same time as we start to enter the solar minimum? The poor weather around 2010 coincided with a slackening of the solar influence (judged by the sunspots). The mini ice age occurred at a time of the Maunder Minimum. To pretend that our solar has no impact on our climate other than just within the IR is rapidly being challenged/examined, I believe. Already very high level of high energy particles are starting to bombard the stratosphere (up by an average of 7% according to US scientist balloon experiments reports, but they have seen levels as high as 25% at times) and the way they interact at high levels is unknown. The changes say from the Mediaeval Warming Period to the Sporer minimum and then a lull before entering into the Little ice age of the late 17th Century must have seen multiple forces interacting and in action. This presumably was before any CO2 variability impacting the climate. Or do you still subscribe to the 'Mannian' view of the climate that the temperature/climate was unchanged during the last one thousand years?. Final point was that my numbers clearly showed that comparing the 7 year averages of min/max temperature showed that the difference was 2.03C within 40 years ( 7.91 to 9.94 from 1698 to 1738). Yet warmers seem to think that 0.9C in 150 years is a potential catastrophe. We need (IMO) to spend more time and energy looking into what the natural climatic effects really are, before we try to simulate the future via the models. As already stated I do accept that CO2 will cause some warming effect. Is it so large as to engulf all the other natural effects, I am not so certain. We are still miles from understanding the full oceanic and the atmospheric influences on the climate. (IMO) Using 'parameters' to simulate them in the models just will not work. MIA
  14. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Yep here also was very sudden... Temperature is falling quickly to now down to 3.6C from 4.2C inside a couple of minutes. It looked like the back edge of the front as reported from NW of Bham. Still a few flakes and temp has fallen to 3.0C now...(Inside 2 minutes). MIA
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