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Midlands Ice Age

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Midlands Ice Age last won the day on May 2 2016

Midlands Ice Age had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Interests
    Golf and weather.

    Veteran who can just remember the winter of 1947 as well as 1963.
  • Weather Preferences
    Sun, Snow and Storms

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  1. Midlands Ice Age

    The fundamentals of Atmospheric Angular Momentum

    Wow SMS I nearly understood the whole of it on my first read.!! Well done. As to golf - The wife and I play a lot of golf together on travels around the UK. We use it as a means of seeing the whole of the UK. We love it! She has a friend who lives in Minchinhampton who is very poorly. When we visit her we take the golf clubs.... So we play the old course (wonderful!), and more recently we have played the main course there (Cirencester). I have played about 1200 courses now in the UK. About a half of those that can be played.!! I hope to be able to complete many more! Not hinting by the way! MIA
  2. 10.6C and 75mms please MIA
  3. Midlands Ice Age

    Hurricane Florence

    QS... By complete coincidence it would seem that NOAA have been looking into hurricanes in the Atlantic and have issued a paper. They say that any warming effects from CO2 will not have any impact until later in the 21st century. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ Not on the total number but on Cat 5's. Looks like it has been issued to kill the hype that seems to be prevalent when even a Cat1 hits land. Summary says it all really - Quote - In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups. Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate). We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, and medium confidence that they will be more intense (higher peak winds and lower central pressures) on average. In our view, it is uncertain how the annual number of Atlantic tropical storms will change over the 21st century. All else equal, tropical cyclone surge levels should increase with sea level rise as projected for example by IPCC AR5. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by prototype IPCC mid-range warming scenarios, such as A1B or RCP4.5. The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our tropical cyclone projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on tropical cyclones at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
  4. And now confirmation from NOAA that Hurricanes are not currently more numerous - Quote: E. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups. Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate). We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, and medium confidence that they will be more intense (higher peak winds and lower central pressures) on average. In our view, it is uncertain how the annual number of Atlantic tropical storms will change over the 21st century. All else equal, tropical cyclone surge levels should increase with sea level rise as projected for example by IPCC AR5. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by prototype IPCC mid-range warming scenarios, such as A1B or RCP4.5. The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our tropical cyclone projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on tropical cyclones at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
  5. Midlands Ice Age

    Hurricane Florence

    Wrong thread? MIA
  6. Midlands Ice Age

    Hurricane Florence

    QS.. You mentioned a high ACE value in a previous post. Have you access to the current value for 2018, we are now just over 2/3 of the way through the season, and an update would be appreciated. I have the ACE values for both the Atlantic and Pacific detailed below - Categories[edit] Atlantic basin cyclone intensity by Accumulated cyclone energy, timeseries 1850-2014 A season's ACE is used by NOAA and others to categorize the hurricane season into 3 groups by its activity.[4] Measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin, the median annual index was 87.5 and the mean annual index was 93.2. The NOAA categorization system divides seasons into: Above-normal season: An ACE value above 111 (120% of the 1981–2010 median), provided at least two of the following three parameters are also exceeded: number of tropical storms: 12, hurricanes: 6, and major hurricanes: 2. Near-normal season: neither above-normal nor below normal Below-normal season: An ACE value below 66 (71.4% of the 1981–2010 median), or none of the following three parameters are exceeded: number of tropical storms: 9, hurricanes: 4, and major hurricanes: and these show little change in intensity (if you accept a drop in the 19th century due to no satellite measurements). The item I used above also contains lists of the number of storms and hurricanes each year and there is little apparent change in the numbers. I understand you have studied l the situation in detail. Could you give us a clearer picture? MIA
  7. Midlands Ice Age

    Hurricane Florence

    Still they go on!. Love the guy walking across with his pumps on in the post by Soft Lad. I had a greater depth of water over my golf shoes today, here in the Midlands!. Love the 500 million without power... As you say typical MSM. MIA
  8. Midlands Ice Age

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Mark... Mine too, its still raining steadily after a half hour burst of heavy rain. I can hear the wind in the chimney (I still have one!) and the conservatory and car port rooves are rattling away with each gust. A wild night indeed. 18 mms of rain so far today. Grandad
  9. Midlands Ice Age

    The fundamentals of Atmospheric Angular Momentum

    Keep going SMS... I am learning with you! Are you a member at Cirencester? MIA
  10. Sky Full... The thing to notice about this chart (and what we need to watch) is that the wind is coming from the NNE or NE. The event people are concerning themselves with (1952) was more of a straight N or NNE. If this comes off as shown it could actually push more surges against the English coastline. However. in mitigation, it will not produce the tidal surge to the NE of Scotland, that was caused by the low tracking down from Iceland and was such a part of the earlier event.. It does require watching though! MIA
  11. Midlands Ice Age

    Hurricane Florence

    QS.. Thanks for your reply. I was asking for actual rainfall numbers not MSM versions. I think that your version is a bit 'off the mark'. CNN have just reported that Wilmington (live report) has received around 15 inches, over 4 -5 days. It appears to be in the middle of the rainfall charts. I think that 40 inches would have produced similar results to those in the Philippines. So far I have seen people wading around in about 1 foot of water, although rivers clearly are in spate. I have also watched Storm Chases like Bret Adair and he seems to be freely moving around the area, with no rain falling. I watched him on Thursday when the storm hit and from the front, ( not the island in front of Wilmington), he reported wind speeds of 75 mph. Right on the Cat 1 lower limit. This continued for a few hours before dropping to 40 - 60 mph gusts. (this was all live). Also note the Met Office have just issued warnings of similar gusts for the North of the UK for Wednesday. MIA
  12. Midlands Ice Age

    Hurricane Florence

    Hi Guys... Has anyone seen the rainfall totals that Florence accumulated? Did we manage to get the 3 - 4 feet promised? I think that 10 -12 inches are fairly normal for a Hurricane. I have actually 'been through' 24 inches from a storm in Aussie, so what are the actual figures inn terms of wind and rainfall?. MIA
  13. Midlands Ice Age

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I have not changed my 'tune', one little bit. I have always accepted some form of warming from Anthro GW. I have always stated that was the case. Going back 4 or 5 years, you will see I have always stated/believed the effect would see about 1.5C warming by 2200.. Despite yours and BFTV's fictitious posts concerning 'Sceptics'. I am a scientist and a sceptic. I am highly sceptical that we will see anything approaching 2.5C warming by 2200. Never mind the 3.0C to over 5.0C that people who post on here believe that the science is taking them. Computer models are totally inaccurate still. I am not and never have been a denier, (as you label anyone who does not accept that we are doomed, with uncontrolled warming). There are a huge number of scientists who are in the same position. Claiming that there are 98% of climate scientists who believe in CAGW is doing a disservice to climate science. MIA. ..
  14. Midlands Ice Age

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    ED.. Then again - why ask a strawman question? 1) 98% - is a fictitious number 2) All the above believe in AGW.. Its the extent to which it is and is going to affect the atmosphere which is the unknown. MIA.
  15. Midlands Ice Age

    Did you know.

    Weather Chanel in the States, but has gone viral on the MSM. Windspeeds of around 30 - 40mph!! Clearly thought he was a snowflake! MIA
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