Partholon

just to point out this is the guy i quoted a couple of weeks ago, who dismissed the chances of an easterly happening back in mid- December, due to the strat profile at 50hpa and 70hpa. he said because of this the weather would be zonal for the rest of December. however, for the sake of balance,i should point out he was highly skeptical of a stratosphere warming occuring in January. all in all his views should not be dismissed out right

yes, to be fair to him, he has been objective in his aalysis since he came back. whereas in the past he seem to delight in winding people up. interestingly what he suggests, would chime with Roger J Smiths idea of the altantic pushing back after a few days of cold, before the cold takes a firmer hold late on in the month.

actually there was one person, whom i spoke about on the strat thread, who foresaw the influence of the block on our weather as being shortlived, due to strat conditions at the 50-70 hpa mark. omniously enough, he thinks the chances of blocking will decrease as the winter progresses

It looks as if roger j smith's forecast is going to plan so far. He indicated a milder period in the run up to Christmas, with any cold outbreak before then being shortlived, and that's exactly what looks like happening now

well according to this guy.....

Yes. It's heartbreaking that they're only showing up now. To think we waited to no avail all winter for signs of height rises over Greenland):

And now for the change to cooler weather from tomorrow onwards): Just when I was getting used to the warm days

Well if the Ecm and uk met office have it right, we could see some snow on high ground in April, possibly even some snow making it to lower levels as well. Of course there is plenty of time for downgrades before then

It's disappointing to see the ecm indicating higher pressure may move towards Greenland towards the end of March. Why couldn't this have happened in January or February):

I had a dusting of snow earlier on. Showers seem to be retreating to the coast now.

Yes, it is disappointing to see the pv firing up again after the background signals suggested the opposite. Still, I'm hoping for a March like 1985, that would be a shock to the system for those who believe spring can't deliver decent cold outbreaks

I'll be happy just to see snow falling, anything else(snow accumulating) will be a bonus.

Indeed. The ecm 32 dayer, which was considered very accurate with regard to the blocking events of the previous two years, was very misleading this year. I recall Matt Hugo referencing it in his tweets, because blocking to the northwest was depicted by it on several occasions. Ian Brown rightly receives criticism for some of his posts on here, but in saying that he was right when he mentioned several weeks ago that the vortex split this winter might not be favourable for blocking over the UK and Ireland. He cautioned people not to get carried away at the time. So This winter has shown me it's best not to get carried away by t-240 stratosphere profile charts from now on. Also that a split vortex does not guarantee blocking will occur in the right area for us to benefit from, even if some of the models suggest so in late FI.

Perhaps a crucial difference this year, was the strength of the vortex prior to the warmings compared to previous years. An additional consideration might be that the ep flux didn't go poleward, which, if i recall correctly, the experts said was not a very good sign.

After the dire winter so far, i'll just be happy to see some transitory snow again. Hopefully some feature will show up in the flow so that other parts of the country, aside from the usual favourable locations, can get some snow.